The Hall of Fame game is in the books, and football is finally back. That means excitement, and the Degen Doc and Professor Locks couldn’t wait to get some money on the books, hence our “Way Too Early NFL picks for Week 1” of the 2025 season. Even five weeks out, there’s real betting value on the board. In this breakdown, we’re covering key player news, locker room drama, and full game-by-game predictions, including our top two locks and a moneyline underdog. Whether you’re chasing early line movement or looking to get ahead in your sportsbook, this Week 1 preview delivers sharp analysis from start to finish.

The NFL season opens with the defending Super Bowl champs hosting their NFC East rivals. Philadelphia lays seven points at home against a Dallas team already dealing with injuries and drama. Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons wants out. Cornerback Trevon Diggs is coming back from injury. Starting offensive linemen are also questionable.

The Eagles dominated the Cowboys in both meetings last season, outscoring them 75–14 combined. Even with NFC East games often being close, this matchup looks like a mismatch. Philly is healthy, motivated, and at home with the banner drop ceremony. Despite early-season variance, this is one of the safer Too Early NFL picks. Lay the points with the Eagles.

Friday Night in Brazil: Chiefs vs Chargers in São Paulo

Kansas City is a slight favorite against the Chargers in Brazil. This international game should be fun, but also chaotic. The Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes and an elite defense. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, meanwhile, is just 2–7 lifetime against Kansas City.

There’s uncertainty with KC’s receiving corps, especially with Rashee Rice’s situation. Still, the offensive line has improved, and first-rounder Josh Simmons is impressing in camp. On the Chargers’ side, cornerback and defensive line issues could be exposed. With extra time to prepare, trust Andy Reid. The Chiefs at -2.5 is one of the cleaner Too Early NFL picks on the board.

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Sunday Slate Begins: Bucs, Browns, and Big Lines

The Bucs host the Falcons as 2.5-point favorites. Despite likely missing Tristan Wirfs, Tampa Bay’s loaded offense and proven defense should handle a young Falcons team. The over at 48.5 is also appealing due to both secondaries showing weaknesses.

Cincinnati heads to Cleveland as 5.5-point favorites. Joe Burrow is finally healthy for a full offseason, but the Bengals have a long history of starting slow. The Browns, even with Joe Flacco, tend to play Cincinnati tough. Cleveland is a solid home dog here, making them a live bet in Too Early NFL picks if you like fading public favorites.

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Miami, New England, and Betting the Ugly Matchups

Miami is a 1.5-point underdog in Indianapolis. The Colts have quarterback issues, while the Dolphins have elite speed and a dome-friendly offense. Tua is healthy—for now—and Miami is the sharper bet here.

New England is laying three points against the Raiders. Both teams have new coaching staff and a lot of changes. While we slightly lean Vegas plus the points, the best bet might be the under at 42.5. When offenses are unsettled, low scoring often follows.

Giants, Jets, and the Battle for New York

The Giants are touchdown underdogs in Washington, a line that feels inflated. New York has upgraded its quarterback and defensive line. Historically, the Giants have handled Washington well. This is one of the sharpest underdogs Way Too Early NFL picks of the week. Grab the points or consider the money line.

Meanwhile, the Steelers take on the Jets in a revenge game loaded with subplots. With Aaron Rodgers now in Pittsburgh and Justin Fields under center for New York, both QBs face their former teams. Pittsburgh is favored by three, and we’re backing them with confidence. Their O-line and defense should make the difference.

Late Afternoon Lines and Best Favorites

Denver opens at home as 7.5-point favorites against Tennessee. Rookie QB Cam Ward is being thrown into the fire. There may be no tougher spot than Mile High against the league’s top defense. This is a strong lock for Week 1.

San Francisco travels to Seattle as 1.5-point favorites. The 49ers are banged up. Seattle has questions at quarterback. This game is likely to be ugly. The best angle may be the under at 45.5.

The Rams host the Texans as three-point favorites. Houston comes in with injuries and regression looming. LA’s skill players, particularly Stafford and Puka Nacua, should be enough to cover. This game may offer sneaky line movement, so betting early is advised.

Primetime Showdowns and MNF Picks

Sunday Night Football features a possible AFC Championship preview with Baltimore at Buffalo. The Ravens have an elite secondary and a complete roster. The Bills have one of the best offensive lines and home-field advantage. This game is a coin flip. If you need a side, lean toward Buffalo at home, but don’t force action here.

Monday Night closes Week 1 with the Vikings visiting the Bears. Chicago is favored by 1.5 and is one of the most improved teams in the NFL. Minnesota is starting a rookie QB on the road, always a red flag. This is a top Too Early NFL picks candidate. The Bears rebuilt their lines, added playmakers, and should start fast at home.

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Final Picks: Locks and Underdogs to Bet Now

Our favorite Too Early NFL picks come down to three sharp bets. Denver -7.5 is a top lock. Arizona -5.5 is another strong early play. On the money line, Detroit (+105) is a worthy underdog with a proven roster and strong divisional history. These lines are likely to move, so jumping in now could be the difference between a win and a push.

As always, betting early means risk—but it also means opportunity. If you’re serious about getting value, these Too Early NFL picks are the place to start. Week 1 is closer than you think.