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Three players to Avoid Drafting in 2022 Based on ADP

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ADP can drive a fantasy manager insane. It can be misleading, but with help, you’ll know what three players to avoid drafting in 2022 based on ADP.

ADP stands for average draft position. This makes it easy for fantasy players to see where players are being drafted. Although helpful, it can steer league managers in the wrong direction as ADP is not always correct.

With redraft leagues commencing within the next month, here are three players whose ADP is too high for my liking. These three players are great, but there is better value with other players around a similar ADP range.

Dalvin Cook: RB6

Dalvin Cook has been one of the best running backs in all football the past few seasons. The problem I have with Cook is that he has never played a full season in his career. He is being drafted as RB6 and eight overall.

With just 13 games played last season, Cook could be the RB9 on a ppg basis which is great! The problem is the Vikings are expected to be a pass-heavy offense in 2022. As the passing game evolves more in Minnesota, the carries for Cook will come down a bit.

Being a first-round running back in fantasy football, to me, means being on the field majority of the team, being healthy, and being able to win weeks on your own.

Cook cannot be trusted to be taken in the first round as losing your first-round pick is very difficult to overcome. I have three running backs I would take before Dalvin Cook: Leonard Fournette, D’Andre Swift, and Joe Mixon.

Fournette has found a new home in Tampa Bay with Tom Brady handing him dump-off passes and finding the end zone. Swift is exactly what Alvin Kamara was when he entered the NFL. With Swift staying healthy, he has a top-five finish written all over him, and then there is Joe Mixon.

Mixon is arguably in one of the three most high-powered offenses in football. With that being said, the Bengals will always be looming in the red zone, which means more opportunity for Mixon to replicate his 16 touchdown season.

Antonio Gibson: RB19

Antonio Gibson is what teams would want in a running back. Gibson stands in at 6’2″ tall and 220 lbs. Yet, the Commanders have brought J.D. McKissic back in and drafted a tank from Alabama, Brian Robinson.

If a team believed in a player, they would not continue to bring in competition for that particular player. Gibson finished as RB13 in his rookie season and RB12 last season. That puts him in RB1 range, and the Commanders still drafted another running back.

Gibson, being ranked as RB19 and 37th overall makes me nervous. Also, Gibson saw over 70% of the snaps in 2021 just TWICE, yet being an RB1 does not add up. The efficiency is there, but with the running room becoming more crowded, it is safe to say Gibson is a backend RB2.

Running backs like Josh Jacobs, JK Dobbins, and Travis Etienne are being drafted after Gibson. All three players are in better offenses and do not have the discomfort of splitting carries with numerous running backs.

D.K. Metcalf: WR17

No Russell Wilson in Seattle anymore. The dip in Metcalf’s fantasy stock is understandable, and I am here to make it more understandable. He came alive in year two, finishing as the WR10 on a ppg basis. Wilson missed three games in year three, but Metcalf was not the same anymore.

Metcalf saw the same amount of targets in years two and three. The difference was in year two, he had 1,303 yards. In year three, on the same targets, Metcalf had 967 yards. Now, in 2022, Russell Wilson is a Denver Bronco, and Seattle will have Drew Lock under center for at least one season.

Lock’s highlight of his NFL career is when he was reciting lyrics of a Young Jeezy song on the Denver sideline a few years ago. So, the fact Tyler Lockett and Metcalf will be having to catch passes from him will be underwhelming.

With an ADP of WR17 and 45th overall, Metcalf should be lower than what he is. Receivers below him include Mike Williams, who has Justin Herbert as his quarterback, and the Broncos’ top two wideouts in Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. What Metcalf and Lockett were with Russell Wilson will now transfer over to Sutton and Jeudy, replicating the production of Metcalf and Lockett.

Thank you for checking out my ADP: three players to avoid drafting in 2022! You can read all of my articles on my IDP Guys’ author page. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @NBF_Clo and @IDPGuys (we have offense too) and please check out our website at idpguys.org.

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