“The NFC South is wide open, offering betting and fantasy value with one stable, one on the rise, & two lingering.”
The 2025 NFL season is here, and the NFC South is one of the most unpredictable divisions in football. Tampa Bay remains the most stable, Atlanta is rising with an electric offense, and both Carolina and New Orleans are in rebuild mode with quarterback questions. This division offers plenty of betting value, fantasy upside, and opportunities to profit. Here’s your complete NFC South Betting breakdown, covering every team’s offseason moves, fantasy outlook, and the wagers worth making this season.
(This is an AI-generated article from a recently published IDP+ Podcast transcript.)
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Carolina finished 5-12 last year and enters 2025 with a win total of 6.5. The over is juiced across most books, but this roster still feels raw. Bryce Young is the biggest question mark after an inconsistent second season, where he was even benched for Andy Dalton. He cut his sacks from 62 as a rookie to 29 last year, but he remains unproven.
The Panthers overhauled the offense, adding Rico Dowdle after his 1,000-yard season with Dallas and drafting Ted McMillan eighth overall. Hunter Renfrow returns after a year and a half away due to health issues. Defensively, they lost key pieces in Jadeveon Clowney and Shaq Thompson but added Patrick Jones, Tershawn Wharton, and safety Trevon Moehrig. Those moves feel like lateral changes, leaving the defense as a concern.
Fantasy players should keep an eye on Chuba Hubbard, who posted nearly 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns in 15 games last season. Dowdle’s arrival could cut into touches, but Hubbard still controls goal-line work. Adam Thielen offers steady production, while McMillan could become Bryce Young’s primary weapon if healthy.
Best Bets for Carolina:
- Under 6.5 wins (+125)
- Bryce Young under 3,150.5 passing yards (+100)
- Chuba Hubbard over 1,000 rushing yards (+115)
- Chuba Hubbard over 6.5 rushing touchdowns (+125) and 10+ touchdowns (+225)
- Jacee Horn to record 2+ interceptions (+165)
New Orleans Saints 2025 Outlook
New Orleans is the biggest wild card in the NFC South Betting market. The Saints finished 5-12 last season and open with a win total of 5.5. Tyler Shough, a second-round pick out of Louisville, leads the quarterback competition with Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener. Neither option inspires confidence.
This roster still has talent. Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave return healthy, and Rashid Shaheed is back after a successful meniscus repair. Juwan Johnson remains a big-bodied target, which could help Shough or Rattler settle in. Defensively, Cam Jordan, Demario Davis, and Tyrann Mathieu remain leaders, but the unit is aging. They lost CB Paulson Adebo and Pro Bowl tackle Ryan Ramczyk, leaving rookie Kelvin Banks to protect a rookie quarterback’s blind side.
Fantasy players can find value despite the chaos. Shaheed is a forgotten name who averaged nearly 60 yards per game last year. His deep-threat ability makes him a late-round steal. Juwan Johnson is a sneaky tight end play, especially since young quarterbacks lean heavily on safety valves. Olave remains the clear WR1, but his history of concussions adds risk.
Best Bets for New Orleans:
- Rashid Shaheed over 700.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Shaheed 5+ receiving touchdowns (+110)
- Shaheed 1,000+ receiving yards (+400)
- Chris Olave over 1,000 receiving yards (+150)
Atlanta Falcons 2025 Outlook
Atlanta went 8-9 last year and barely missed the playoffs. The Falcons enter with a win total of 7.5 and a rebuilt identity under quarterback Michael Penix Jr. This offense looks dangerous, but the defense remains a concern.
The Falcons lost center Drew Dalman, their offensive line anchor, but still field one of the league’s better lines with Orion Neal stepping up. On defense, they addressed a dismal pass rush by drafting Jaylen Walker and James Pierce Jr., signing Leonard Floyd and Morgan Fox, and adding Xavier Watts to the secondary. Grady Jarrett’s departure leaves a leadership void, but the line now has potential playmakers.
In fantasy football, Bijan Robinson is a top-three overall selection. He topped 1,400 rushing yards last season and hasn’t missed a game as a pro. Drake London should thrive with Penix after scoring nine touchdowns last year. Kyle Pitts is finally available at a value price after two middling seasons, clearing 600 yards in both despite injury concerns. His foot sprain is minor, but worth monitoring in camp.
Best Bets for Atlanta:
- Over 7.5 wins (-135)
- Falcons to make the playoffs (+155)
- Bijan Robinson over 1,050.5 rushing yards (-125)
- Drake London 10+ receiving touchdowns (+215)
- Kyle Pitts over 525.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Kyle Pitts 1,000+ receiving yards (+1200)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 Outlook
Tampa Bay, the reigning division champion, finished 10-7 last year and is the most proven team in the NFC South Betting. The Buccaneers bring back Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, and a loaded receiver room bolstered by rookie standout Emeka Egbuka. Their win total is 9.5, and they are the division favorite.
The Bucs lost veterans Shaq Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka but upgraded the pass rush with Haason Reddick and added linebacker Anthony Walker. Rookie corner Benjamin Morrison could start despite hip surgery last October, filling a thin position group. Offensively, questions surround Chris Godwin’s ankle dislocation and Tristan Wirfs’ July knee surgery, which will sideline him early. Both situations make depth crucial in the opening weeks.
In fantasy, Mike Evans remains a reliable WR1, always surpassing 1,000 yards with double-digit touchdowns. Emeka Egbuka could immediately benefit if Godwin is limited, while Bucky Irving offers RB upside despite some risk tied to Wirfs’ absence. Baker Mayfield is primed for another huge year after 4,500 passing yards and 41 touchdowns in 2024.
Best Bets for Tampa Bay:
- Over 9.5 wins (+110)
- Buccaneers to win NFC South (-105)
- Over 10.5 wins (+155)
- Baker Mayfield over 3,800.5 passing yards (-110)
- Mayfield over 29.5 passing touchdowns (-105)
- Mayfield 4,500+ passing yards (+500)
- Mayfield 40+ passing touchdowns (+550)
- Emeka Egbuka 5+ receiving touchdowns (+200)
Final Word on NFC South Betting
This division is a tale of two halves. Tampa Bay and Atlanta boast playoff-caliber offenses, while Carolina and New Orleans face instability at quarterback and major roster turnover. Betting value lies in fading the Panthers, backing the Bucs, and targeting high-upside props for stars like Bijan Robinson, Chuba Hubbard, Drake London, Mike Evans, and Baker Mayfield.
The NFC South may not be the strongest division, but it offers plenty of fantasy football upside and profitable betting opportunities heading into 2025.
Thank you for reading this article by @IDP_Plus. This article was created using IDP+ AI and edited by Derek Bennett. Be sure to check out the video above by The Degen Doc and Professor Locks, which this video is based on, talking about the NFC West. Follow @TheDegenDoc and @Prof_Lock2 on X!
