Greetings and welcome to the Week 2 edition of “best bets”, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season. My Week 1 edition was less than stellar with just one of the three bets I recommended hitting for us. The Bengals game was the upset of the season so far and knocked out over 80% of our IDP Plus survivor league and I missed on the Chiefs/Ravens game by half a point…however, if you placed your bet on that game when I initially recommended it on the IDP Plus Moneyline Podcast the line was over or under 47.5 so it was all about timing. Thankfully, the Bucs were able to cover as they destroyed Washington in Week 1 easily.
The house always wins in the end
It happens, the best we can do around these parts is lay out realistic options and back up those calls with our thought process, solid reasoning, and data to make a concise case as to why we’re making these calls. In the new “Wild West” of sports betting prognosticators and “expert” pickers, something I’ve never claimed to be and will never claim to be, I’ll always at least lay out my case for each of these calls and help you understand why I’m making these bets (something I haven’t seen a ton from many other “expert pickers”).
In the end, I’m just a degenerate like you, but my past “jobs” at this site and others have shown me how to look at matchups in a way where they can be exploited to find value. Like Steph Curry, I’m gonna keep shooting, and some will go in and some will miss. It is what it is.
What I can say is that as more information and “real” snaps and data become available this will get easier, Week 1 is often a mix of last season’s stats and a “gut feeling”.
Safer means more likely to happen over the course of the season
Thanks to an “algorithm killer” (Xavier Worthy under on receptions, yes on anytime TD, and over on receiving yards for +1400) I was still able to profit overall in Week 1, but that’s not the kind of thing I’d ever recommend on here, that’s probably the only time that kind of bet will hit for me this entire season. That hit plus taking Texas (NCAAF) with a -9.5 alt-line against a clearly vulnerable Michigan team that had trouble with unranked Fresno State the week prior led me to a nice start to the season despite the losses suffered betting on the Bengals and the under for the Thursday night opener that I discussed here last time.
We’ll continue to make safer choices and back up our calls with data and deductive reasoning, however in the end the truth is Vegas will always win eventually. If you’re approaching this as anything other than “fun” you’re in for a bad time. So we’ll get back on the horse and take a stab at Week 2. Let’s have a look at Johny the Greek’s best bets, Week 2!
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions, they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper”. Set a limit and stick to it, for help with problem gambling please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
All spreads, lines, and moneyline prices, etc accurate as of 9/11/24
Los Angeles Chargers @ Carolina Panthers
The Bet: Chargers -5.5 (-110)
How to improve those numbers (riskier, but better payout): Use an alt line, Chargers -6.5 (+100).
The rationale: The new-look Chargers kicked down the door against a hopeful Raiders team last week and beat them by 12 points while debuting an entirely different approach to their offensive philosophy. They dominated on the ground to the tune of 176 rushing yards and as a result their biggest weakness, a lack of solid pass-catching options, wasn’t as big a factor as many thought it would be. They held a fairly talented Raiders offense to just 10 points and a ridiculously bad 71-team rushing yards.
Their opponent this week is not even remotely close to as talented as that Raiders squad that this Chargers team just dismantled in Week 1. The Panthers are 31st overall for offense with just 193 total yards in Week 1 and only managed to score 10 points against a suspect Saints defense that will very likely be exposed against a better opponent (like Dallas this week).
Carolina only managed to put points on the board last week after the game was already well-in-hand and in “garbage time”. The Chargers DST is a “trending transaction” in just about every league platform on this planet this week because we all saw what I saw last week, a Panthers team that may be the worst team in the league and a Chargers team that has life again. They’ve clearly already bought into what Harbaugh is selling and they absolutely have the talent to be competitive immediately, the rebuild may not take as long as initially thought by many, myself included.
Carolina could be in for a long season
The Chargers offensive line is ranked among the top-third of the league whereas the Panthers O-line is 20th overall and allowed 3 sacks to a freaking cornerback last week (and a 4th to Demario Davis as icing on the cake). This further plays into the strengths of this Los Angeles squad that wants to run, play defense, limit mistakes, and suffocate opposing teams.
With their new-look offense and run game powered by a healthy and excellent-looking JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards for short yardage and their rookie offensive lineman already looking like a veteran (Joe Alt did a stellar job against Maxx Crosby in Week 1) this offense has everything it needs to put a hurting on Carolina and that’s without Justin Herbert (a pro bowl caliber quarterback) entering the conversation. Their defense still has plenty of firepower of its own and if Carolina gets stuck in a negative gamescript it could be a long day for Bryce Young and company as Bosa, Mack, Derwin and the fellas tee off on the “deer in headlights” Young.
This feels like a no-brainer, you never know though, we said that about Cincy last week, and look what happened. I’m going with it though for my first favorite “best bet” of Week 2.
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans
The Bet: Jets Moneyline (-170)
How to improve those numbers (riskier, but better payout): Parlay round-robin with other “likely” outcomes or take the spread.
The rationale: The Jets got a raw deal having to start the season on the road against the NFC champion 49ers, this (less than ideal) setup plus Aaron Rodgers seeing his first live game action in almost two years plus the Jets missing some key pieces (Haason Redick holding out, Michael Carter injured about a quarter into the game) led to the predictable outcome we all saw last Monday night.
Despite all that, they still managed to be within striking distance at the end of the third quarter and have an exponentially easier opponent this week. We need to remember that this is the number 3 overall defense from last season and, despite those missing pieces, still has excellent defensive talent all over the field. The rustiness of their offense wasn’t just a “Jets thing” in Week 1 either, passing offense and overall offense across the league were down once again for the 5th season in a row for Week 1 and clearly the lack of a 4th preseason game and the decision by many teams to sit their starters completely all preseason is leading to slow offensive starts across the league.
Week 1 offense was offensive
The average passing yards in Week 1 was just 185 yards and while we saw 61 total passing touchdowns in Week 1 as recently as 2019, we only saw 34 passing touchdowns in Week 1 this season. Use your eyeballs, early season offense ain’t what it used to be.
So this isn’t just a slow start for the Jets, offense stinks across the league right now and their opponent last week (49ers) was the 8th overall defense last season (yards per game) and the 3rd overall defense for points per game last year, not to mention the second overall offense. Everything lined up just perfectly for a stinky debut for New York, but thankfully they get the Titans in Week 2.
This Titan’s offense was 27th overall last season and didn’t seem to improve much in Week 1 against a Bears defense that isn’t exactly the 1985 version. Will Levis only managed to throw for 127 yards and had a QBR of 30.8, he had 1 touchdown pass but also 2 interceptions and was sacked three times. His last interception was returned for a touchdown and that was the difference in the game that gave Chicago the win.
The Jets defense was embarrassed last week on national television in front of the entire nation and is licking their chops at an opportunity to get the ship back on course. This is a “get right” game for New York against an inferior opponent that is still struggling on offense and likely doesn’t have a good enough defense to hold down Super Bowl winner, former MVP, and multi-season pro-bowler Aaron Rodgers. I like this as my second favorite bet for Week 2.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
The Bet: Steelers Moneyline (-140)
How to improve those numbers (riskier, but better payout): Parlay round-robin with other “likely” outcomes or take the spread.
The rationale: It really doesn’t matter who the Steelers roll out at quarterback, their overall experience and massive defensive advantage will be more than enough to rattle rookie quarterback Bo Nix in his second-ever NFL start. Last week against a suspect Seattle defense, Nix and the Broncos were only able to put up just over 200 yards of offense in total. Nix threw for 138 yards…on 42 freaking pass attempts. He also had 2 interceptions and was sacked twice. His 31.3 QBR was horrendous and the 99 rushing yards the Broncos recorded are a bit misleading as well, 35 of them were from Nix taking off to scramble while only 64 of those yards were from their running backs on 20 carries for an average of about 3 yards per carry. That’s not great, Bob.
That’s just not going to get it done against this Steelers defense that was the 6th overall defense in points per game allowed last season and has a healthy Cameron Heyward, TJ Watt, and Minkah Fitzpatrick simultaneously for the first time since the Carter administration. They also added pro-bowler Patrick Queen in the offseason and while he was quiet in Week 1 this is “the rich getting richer” adding that kind of talent and experience to this already excellent defense.
Two teams on very different levels
Pittsburgh may have only recorded 2 sacks last week but they hurried Kirk Cousins from start to finish in Week 1 and also picked him off twice. And I’m fairly certain that Kirk Cousins, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson, and Drake London presented far more of a challenge offensively than Bo Nix and a bunch of players no one ever heard of will in Week 2.
The Steelers won that game handily, also on the road, and face a much easier opponent across the board in Week 2. With all that in mind, this current price of -140 feels like the bargain of the century. This is my third favorite bet of Week 2. Good luck to everyone and let’s go get that cash!
Thank you for reading! Please don’t forget to check out the IDP Plus Moneyline channel on YouTube for “The IDP Plus Moneyline” show with Gary Van Dyke (The IDP Tipster) and yours truly where we cover our favorite bets each week of the season in a short audio format. Make sure you’re visiting IDP Plus for all your IDP and “non-traditional” fantasy football needs, we’ve got you covered for all your leagues, DFS, best ball, and betting needs!
