“It’s the Hottest NFL Week 11 Player Prop Bets And Parlay Pick With NFL Player Expert Justin Mark!”
NFL Week 11 is here and we’re looking to win some cash more with my second IDP+ props article. If you tailed last week, we hit three of four prop bets, with the only one letting us down being Justin Jefferson. There are several juicy matchups this weekend. We can look at what defenses are underperforming against certain positions, and target our offensive players. Let’s break down the top NFL Week 11 player prop bets for this weekend.
So let’s get to the point and see what Draftkings And Fanduel have for us this weekend…
Odds Recorded On 11/14/2024 Via DraftKings
Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns @ +108 (Steelers)
We’ll start this week’s prop bets with one that feels just too easy – and at plus money too! The Ravens’ defense is absolutely terrible. Last week they allowed Joe Burrow to throw for over 400 yards and four passing touchdowns. I get it, Russell Wilson and this Steeler’s offense aren’t exactly the same. Normally they rely on their run game to control the pace of the game.
However, Mike Tomlin won’t be able to resist this juicy matchup. Wilson has started three games for the Steelers now and has three wins. In those three wins, he has thrown two touchdowns or more twice. Now they face one of the most porous defenses in the air, and we can get it for plus money? It feels like I am trapped, I get it. However, even if it is a trap, I’m jumping right in.
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Wilson and the Steelers are looking to continue their winning streak and steal a divisional matchup. The Ravens have been very good this year but they’ve had some struggles in divisional matchups. I’m all over Wilson and his over props as well as George Pickens‘ overs. I’m even springing a little bit on Mike Williams. George Pickens over receiving yards, Russell Wilson over passing yards and passing touchdowns, and George Pickens any-time touchdown all feel solid in this matchup.
Puka Nacua Over 5.5 Catches @ -138 (Rams)
Puka Nacua has only played four games this season. In those four games, one, he was injured halfway through the game. One of them he was kicked out of early on after punching a defender. In the other two, he’s averaged eight catches on an average of 11.5 targets. He’s also averaged 102 receiving yards in those two games.
It’s no secret that Matt Stafford loves throwing the ball to both Puka and Cooper Kupp. However, more recently when they are both healthy, Puka gets a lot of the early target share. Averaging 11.5 targets feels like an easy way to get over 5.5 catches. The Rams will likely want to control this game on the ground and run a lot. However, they should be able to win the time of possession battle, leaving plenty of time to pass.
The Patriots are 21st in the league in passing yards allowed to wide receivers. This means Puka should be able to exploit their defense in the air. When Puka is healthy, and not punching people, he’s one of the best young receivers in the game. Matt Stafford is showing his age however, Puka’s youth is there to help him out. This is one of my favorites in my NFL Week 11 player prop bets.
Nick Chubb 70+ Yards @ +125 (Browns)
I know what you’re thinking. Nick Chubb hasn’t looked like Nick Chubb at all. Since returning from his knee blowout, which was the second to that knee by the way, he has looked like just a normal guy. No longer dominating, Chubb has averaged only 37.7 rushing yards a game in his three starts.
It hasn’t been for lack of carries. Since coming back Chubb has taken over the backfield and averaged 14 carries a game, including 15 and 16 these last two weeks. Will Nick Chubb ever be able to return to his dominant form? Probably not. However, he definitely can take advantage of a poor Saints’ offense.
The Saints are currently 26th in the league in rushing yards allowed. In the past handful of weeks, they’ve allowed Bijan to rush for 116 and backup Allgeier for 59. They allowed Chubba Hubbard 72 rushing yards, despite the Panthers being the underdogs. JK Dobbins only ran for 57 yards but Justin Herbert had 49 that game. They also let Javonte Williams of the Broncos have his best game of the season with 88 yards.
That brings this matchup against Nick Chubb one to target. If Chubb is going to start to look anything like he used to, this is the game to do it. His over/under rushing yards are currently set at 60.5 at -114. However, I think Chubb finally gains some traction and has a solid day. I didn’t go too far up his rushing ladder, taking Chubb to get 70+ rushing yards at +125 in my NFL Week 11 player prop bets.
Anthony Richardson Over 38.5 Rushing Yards at -114 (Colts)
What a whirlwind for Anthony Richardson, the Colts, and Colts fans. Several weeks ago it was announced that Anthony Richardson, their first-round draft pick from last year that had returned from injury, would be hitting the bench. Shane Steichan told everybody that Joe Flacco gives their team the best chance to win and would be the starter for the rest of the season.
However, after some poor performances from Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson presumably serving his punishment for taking himself out of the game for being tired, AR15 is back in the lineup. In the last two games he played before benching, Richardson was finally getting back to his running ways. In those two games, he averaged 50.5 rushing yards.
Let’s be honest here. Anthony Richardson’s best asset isn’t his arm, it’s his legs and athleticism. Therefore if he wants to impress and try to give the Colts a chance to win, he’s going to have to run. That’s good news for the Colts though. The Jets are 22nd in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks. While Sauce Gardner and the defense cover up the wide receivers, Richardson should have plenty of opportunities to take off and run.
Therefore, to cap off my NFL Week 11 player prop bets, I’m taking Anthony Richardson over 38.5 rushing yards at -114. This feels like a bounce-back spot for Richardson where he’ll easily clear 50 rushing yards. In fact, if you want to get risky, play the Anthony Richarson rushing ladder of 50+ yards (+160), 60+ yards (+260), and 70+ yards (+430).
Big Parlay By The Numbers: +1415
Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns +108
Puka Nacua Over 5.5 Receptions -138
Nick Chubb 70+ Rushing Yards +125
Anthony Richardson Over 38.5 Rush Yards @ -114
It’s as great as an All-Combination or 2-pick Round-Robin as it gets!
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