“Discover which fantasy football running backs will repeat or fall out of the top 24 in 2025, plus breakout candidates to target.”
Each year, fantasy football running backs rise and fall faster than any other position. Injuries, schemes, and usage change everything. If you’re drafting based on last year’s stats, you’re making a mistake. Half of the top 24 running backs in any given year won’t repeat. That’s not speculation—that’s backed by over a decade of data. It’s time to dig into the most volatile position in fantasy and find out who is primed to fall out and who is ready to crash the top 24 in 2025.
(This is an AI-generated article from a recently published IDP+ Betting Podcast transcript.)
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Repeat History and Why the RB Turnover Is So High
Over the last 10 years, an average of only 5 top-12 fantasy football running backs repeat the following year. In the top 24, just 12 repeat. That’s a 50% turnover rate. Last year saw 15 repeaters, which is slightly above the historical average. But don’t expect that to continue.
Last season benefited from more run-heavy offenses. Rookie quarterbacks and inexperienced passers often force coordinators to lean on the ground game. That shift gave several backs more volume than they would normally see. Smaller, faster linebackers and two-deep safety looks made running lanes easier to hit. But we’re already seeing trends shifting. New quarterbacks are developing, offensive schemes are evolving, and regression is looming for many of last year’s top names.
Which RBs Are Likely to Fall Out of the Top 24?
Several high-profile fantasy football running backs are unlikely to repeat in 2025. Kyren Williams, James Conner, Aaron Jones, and Joe Mixon all face tough paths to repeat. Jonathan Taylor’s injury history and weakened offensive line are red flags. Rico Dowdle and Rashad White both thrived on volume that could be scaled back this year.
Age and usage also matter. James Conner is turning 30. His injury history and declining efficiency are major concerns. Josh Jacobs has surpassed 1,600 career carries and is in a crowded backfield. Jonathan Taylor has missed games in three of four seasons and now shares the field with a dual-threat quarterback. These risks add up quickly and make them shaky fantasy bets for 2025.
The Curse of Volume: Why Workhorse RBs May Regress
Fantasy football running backs often decline after high-touch seasons. This is known as the “Curse of 370.” It refers to players who total more than 370 touches in a year. Historically, most of them get hurt or regress hard the next season.
Christian McCaffrey hit 417 touches when you include the playoffs. He’s entering his age-29 season with a long injury history. That’s a major red flag. Bijan Robinson totaled 365 touches as a rookie. Atlanta may scale back his work to preserve him long-term. Saquon Barkley topped 2,000 total yards and landed on the Madden cover. Add in a shift to a more pass-heavy Eagles offense, and regression feels likely.
Even Alvin Kamara, who many are optimistic about, has risk. He’ll be 29 this season, and Kendre Miller is pushing for touches. Usage and age matter. The difference between elite production and disappointment often comes down to just 50 extra touches. Don’t assume last year’s workhorses will repeat.
Breakout Candidates and Rookies Who Can Join the Top 24
Every year, new fantasy football running backs surge into the top 24. For 2025, several rookies and backup runners have strong breakout potential. Kaleb Johnson could take over in Pittsburgh under a run-heavy Arthur Smith system. Omari Hampton has the size and speed to dominate for the Chargers. Isaac Guerendo could be the next man up behind Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco. All have paths to significant touches.
Jaylen Warren is another name to watch. He was more efficient than Najee Harris and could win a larger share of the Steelers’ backfield. Jordan Mason’s missed tackle rate is elite, and he may lead the Vikings’ backfield if they don’t bring in competition. These names won’t cost a premium pick but could deliver major return if volume and game script break their way.
Don’t forget that 50% of the current top 24 won’t be there next year. Drafting rookies and backups with upside is how league winners are built.
Backfield Battles and Close Calls You Can’t Ignore
Some fantasy football running backs are right on the bubble of the top 24. Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor have the name value, but injuries and scheme risk can’t be ignored. In New England, the battle between Rhamondre Stevenson and rookie TreVeyon Henderson is worth watching. Stevenson has the experience, but Henderson was drafted to be the guy.
Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo could both lead their teams if injuries hit the starters. These aren’t just handcuffs—they’re players with standalone value if the situation breaks right. Sean and Ricky even debated whether Christian McCaffrey should be ranked at all due to his volume risk.
This year, more than ever, depth matters. Make sure to monitor camp battles, injury updates, and offensive coordinator schemes. The RB landscape shifts fast. Those who prepare and adapt will find value in unexpected places.
Final Thoughts: Strategy for Drafting Fantasy Football Running Backs
The safest way to lose in fantasy is drafting last year’s team. The top 24 fantasy football running backs change every season. Injuries, age, and usage are more important than past stats. Look for runners with fresh legs, favorable offensive schemes, and low-touch history.
Avoid paying up for aging backs with 300+ touches. Instead, invest in younger, cheaper players with paths to more work. Know the numbers. Understand the risk. Build depth. And never assume a name from last year is a lock to return.
The top 24 running backs in fantasy will look very different this year. Plan accordingly—and draft like you already know it.
Thank you for reading this article by @IDP_Plus. This article was created using IDP+ AI and edited by an IDP+ Staff Member. Be sure to check out the video above, which this article is based on. Follow the hosts @RickyRod66 & @shawn8386 on the X!!!
