The Buffalo Bills just lost again. After losing a heartbreaker in the AFC Championship, they lose the architect of their powerful offense in Brian Daboll. Who do you Buy/Sell/Keep from their offense now with the uncertainty?
Buy
Stefon Diggs, WR
Stefon Diggs just completed his second year with the Buffalo Bills after spending his first five years with the Minnesota Vikings who drafted him in the fifth round of the 2015 NFL draft. For the Vikings, he missed one to three games each year due to injury. Diggs had his best year with the Vikings in 2018 with a stat line of 102 receptions for 1,021 yards and nine TDs. The following year, his last with the Vikings, he only had 63 receptions. Diggs did deliver with almost double his yards per reception in 2019 and posted 1,130 yards and six TDs.
The relationship between Diggs and the Vikings deteriorated to a point where he had to be traded. Enter the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen. Allen finally got his go-to WR. Year one together had a substantial return on investment. 2020 was an incredible year for Diggs. He had 133 receptions off of 177 targets for 1,663 yards and 9 TDs. It was one of the most efficient seasons by a WR in recent memory.
How to use 2021 stats to get Diggs at a bargain.
With those types of numbers, won’t Diggs be extremely expensive to obtain? Let’s take a look at 2021 for him. He had 30 fewer receptions off of 13 fewer targets. Allen had attempted 74 more passes. That shows that defenses had rolled to cover him differently. Diggs also had 438 fewer yards on those catches. He did increase his TD total by one in 2021.
There were more options for Allen to throw to in 2021. Emmanuel Sanders had 42 receptions. Will he be back in 2022? Diggs will also turn 29 this year. This is a lot of facts to help bring down the price of Diggs. If you are successful, buy Diggs all day long. 2022 will be more in line with 2020 than it will be with 2021.
Sell
Devin Singletary, RB
Devin Singletary was drafted in the third round of the 2019 NFL draft by the Bills. At 5′ 7″ and 203 lbs, he was expected to carry a good portion of the carries and catches out of the Bills backfield. It started off promising as a rookie with 151 carries for 775 yards and two TDs. Singletary also added 29 receptions for 194 yards and two more TDs. He was a hot commodity after that rookie season.
2020 brought in some competition for the Bills backfield. Zach Moss was drafted in the third round of the 2020 NFL draft to help solidify the Bills backfield with a one-two punch. Moss was bigger and could handle more of the short-yardage situations and still had good hands. Moss played 13 games and had 112 carries for 481 yards and four TDs. Singletary added carries to his 2019 rookie season but had almost 100 yards less rushing and still just two TDs.
The Bills are still not happy with RB production going into 2021.
2021 brought another RB into the mix with Matt Breida being signed for the third head of a three-headed monster. The Bills were trying everything they could to create a rushing threat. In week 10, they added Breida to the mix and a spark happened. For three games, Breida provided 17 carries for 105 yards and a TD. He also added six receptions for 77 yards and another two TDs. Then, in week 14 against the New England Patriots, Breida fumbled twice and lost one. We did not hear from Breida again for the year.
Moss also misses the next two games. Enter Singletary for another shot at glory. He delivered with double-digit fantasy scoring in the final five weeks of the regular season and carried that into the playoffs. Singletary averaged 19 carries a game over the final four games for 81 yards a game. He also produced five TDs in those four games. Add in 14 receptions and another TD over those last five games, and you got yourself a sell high RB in an RB-starved league. Singletary is a mirage. Sell him now.
Keep
Dawson Knox, TE
Dawson Knox was drafted in the third round of the 2019 NFL draft and will be entering his fourth year as the TE for the Bills. He had a minor breakout last year with 49 receptions for 587 yards and a very nice nine TDs. This is after a combined 52 receptions in his first two years in the league.
The fourth-year for a TE can be the breakout. Travis Kelce started his current streak of 1,000 yards receiving in his fourth year. Tony Gonzales had his first 1,000-yard season in his fourth year. Jason Witten had his first 1,000-yard season in his fifth year. Shannon Sharpe had his first almost 1,000-yard season (995 yards) in his fourth year.
Knox finished 2021 rather well also with seven receptions for 98 yards and two TDs in the 2021 playoffs. I don’t believe that Sanders will return to the Buffalo Bills for 2022. That leaves Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Knox to split up over 600 pass attempts. I like Knox’s chances to break out big in 2022. Do not let him get away. He is a keep all day long. The value is just too high, especially in the most popular leagues out there of TE premium. Knox will be a top-eight TE in 2022.
Thank you for checking out the latest article in the Buy/Sell/Keep series! You can read all of my articles on my IDP Guys author page. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @OldMan_FF and @IDPGuys (we have offense too) and please check out our website at idpguys.org.
