BIG Plus Money Week 11 NFL Prop Bets And Hot Hail Mary Parlay!

“Tackle The BIG Plus Money HAIL MARY Week 11 NFL Prop Bets – Only for the Deepest DieHard NFL Defensive fans!”

Campbell isn’t an unfamiliar name with some of the older NFL fans. He’s one of the former top options from the recent decade and has been struggling for the last couple of seasons, at least in terms of production. However, that all changed this year as Campbell has enjoyed a late-career reprevial. This season, Campbell has been one of the most consistent and productive guys at his position and outperformed in even the toughest of matchups. And this sets up right nicely for the DT/Edge Rusher versus the woeful Raiders at home.

Quick Stats: In the 2024 NFL season, 38-year-old defensive tackle Calais Campbell, playing for the Miami Dolphins, started all 9 games, recording 31 combined tackles (25 solo and 6 assists), 3.0 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, 6 quarterback hits, 5 passes defended, and 1 forced fumble.

The Matchup versus the Raiders on paper.

As a team, the Raiders have given up 30 sacks this season with 3 different QBs under center. So, after being “sorta” benched, Gardner Minshew is back as the starter versus Miami this week, and he has averaged about 3 sacks a game when he’s in. And likely owns all 30 of these sacks by now, which all together ranked in the top 5. And to top all this off, the Raiders have slid from the late teens into the late 20s or more in most offensive line rankings heading into the weekend. The offensive line has allowed 95 pressures and 19 sacks on 356 pass plays this season, with replacement-level depth players like LT Thayer Munford Jr., LG Dylan Parham, and C Jackson Powers-Johnson, who scored poorly on film.

So I’ll take Campbell graded as an “elite” (84.0) in his older age, at home versus a cross-country trip team that’s struggling any day of the week. He’s a former edge rusher turned inside side who’s still getting some work off the edge. And he’s facing those 3 poorly graded offensive line replacements from center to tackle, and all 3 play next to each other. So again, all day long we’ll go with Campbell getting over a 1/4 of a sack this week at a nice +125 to kick this off.

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Another outstanding player to consider, who wasn’t listed at the time of my bets, is Dolphins defensive tackle Zach Sieler. Recently returning from injury, Sieler is having an equally impressive, if not better, season compared to Calais Campbell, which could provide even more confidence in his performance.

Update, Campbell went up to +130 last we looked.

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A.J. Epenesa Over 0.25 Sacks (+130) – BUF

So to win big we have to look deep somewhere each week for the right matchup versus the player and his payout potential. And in this case, we’ll go with Epenesa, who’s neither been on fire nor graded well above par this year. But he does have the skills to overachieve in very favorable matchups, and that’s exactly what we have here at home versus the Chiefs.

Quick Stats: This season, the Buffalo Bills defensive end has delivered an impressive performance with 21 combined tackles (13 solo, 8 assists), 5.0 sacks, 4 tackles for loss, 9 quarterback hits, 1 pass defended, and 2 forced fumbles in just 10 games. Notably, he is already well ahead in sacks compared to his previous career best of 6.5, which he achieved in each of the past two seasons as a heavier rotational player. This season, however, he has stepped into a more prominent role, proving to be a key contributor on the Bills’ defensive line.

The Matchup versus the Chiefs on paper.

Picking on the Chiefs again this round. So they still have a top-rated offensive line on paper. However, that has not meant anything in terms of keeping Patrick Mahomes clean as the season rolled on. He’s been sacked 22 times, which isn’t as bad as the next fact. Which is that it’s going south lately off the edge for Mahomes, and he’s been sacked 4 times in each of the last two contests. One of those was versus the Broncos’ above-average pass rush unit. Although, the other game, was versus the Buccaneers and its bottom 3 ranked pass rusher unit (my board).

And things look even better at the moment. Left tackle Wanya Morris sustained a knee injury during Kansas City’s Week 10 game against Denver but managed to return for the final drive. In his absence, rookie Kingsley Suamataia stepped in at left tackle and faced significant challenges. Suamataia allowed eight pressures, including two sacks, and posted a pretty darn poor pressure rate in the process. And that’s pretty much it, give me Epenesa, who’s the second leading snap guy off the edge who’s capable. Add in Mahome’s recent sack struggles, more O-Line problems, AND the Chiefs play in Buffalo. This is a high-profile AFC matchup, and I believe this all lines up perfectly for Epenesa to get his first sack at home this season with pretty strong confidence.

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And yes, the Bills’ main pass rusher Gregory Rousseau is another great option this week, he’s on fire! However, when we looked he was at a -115, and we felt we already had our anchor to this parlay. Most of you might mean I’m referring to Campbell, which I agree. However, it’s a fine line towards how I feel about the next guy too. So Epenesa should be considered the longest shot in this Hail Mary plus money parlay.

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Travon Walker Over 0.25 Sacks (+150) – JAC

I was pretty excited to see this one, Walker is a fine option here for this plus-money bet. He’s an on-par grade player this year playing from the strong side, which is actually a little tougher to play. At least in terms of sacks, this guy is normally facing the quarterback’s right side, which he faces when in a passing stance. Just a little tidbit here. The weakside gig, which has a few advantages, is manned by their older first-rounder, Josh Hines-Allen. Which, he does have an elite-like grade this year whereas Walker is just on par.

However, it’s also worth noting that Walker has 7.5 sacks to Hines-Allen’s 6. Hines-Allen was nicked up a little at the beginning of the season, but that’s spitting the hairs a bit too much. Our point is this is really why Hines-Allen isn’t in my parlay this week at his lower money. I’m simply not as impressed as I am with what Walkers got going.

The Matchup versus the Lions on paper.

Again, despite having a great and top 3 overall offensive line, it doesn’t keep the quarterback clean. And of course, just like the rest of the guys’ opponents, they are a top-10 team in allowing overall production off the edge. Jeoff Goff has been sacked 18 times in 9 games, that 2 a contest. Overall he’s gone 2 games without sacks, the first was versus the sad Tampa Bay edge unit. the other came just last game in Houston with the Texans star OLB/DE Will Anderson out. However, the next best thing, and a great player, DE/OLB Danielle Hunter had a very productive contest. Recording 3 solos and 4 assists with 2 QB hits. So he did everything but get a sack, damn near. One last tidbit, Goff recently had two contests with 4 sacks taken in back-to-back weeks just in the last 4 weeks. And as a note, this Jaguar interior defensive unit is formable enough to keep the highly graded Lions O-Line busy. That’s been way different this year.

In Retrospect…

So this take might not be delivered like the first two, but here’s what it all boils down to. I’m betting on Walker getting his sack based on opportunity, his 2024 performance so far, and the tandem he makes with Hines-Allen. That, versus Goff and his style or tendencies that lead to sacks each game. Add in the fact this is a perfect setup for the Lions not to fully be prepared 100%. None of the next 3 contests are division rivals and AFC teams. So just how important is it to go all out to prepare for them?

We should expect the Lions to feel like they are walking on water right now. And they know they are facing Mac Jones at quarterback on a team that’s just 2-8. This brings up another fact, Walker’s likely to see another nice pump in snaps (opportunity) because the Jaguars offense was already struggling, and we already mentioned Jones is now the QB.

In a handbasket…

Detriot isn’t nearly as generous in the interior offensive line. They’ve only allowed 3 defensive tackles to get after Goff, all other sacks have all been pass rushers. Stack that with Walker and the Jaguars’ situation versus Goff and the numbers. At +150 is looking like a nice high-anchor versus Campbell in this parlay.

And had to look as I closed this, DraftKings still doesn’t have Hines-Allen even listed. (11/16 – 1:30 p.m. et.) This may sound odd, but also might be a strong indication the numbers jive in Vegas for the more popular name. Don’t laugh, just explain to me however once in a while this same scenario occurs. And why isn’t Jaguar’s number 1 edge guy not listed, yet? Odd indeed. It’s a real edge at times betting defensively when you know the players others don’t have time for.

My Current Week NFL Prop Bets/Parlays Placed.

1st Hail Mary 3 Parlay Slip- @ +1193

Calais Campbell Over 0.25 Sacks (+125) – LV Raiders @ MIA Dolphins
A.J. Epenesa Over 0.25 Sacks (+130) – KC Chiefs @ BUF Bills
Travon Walker Over 0.25 Sacks (+150) – JAX Jaguars @ DET Lions

2nd Hail Mary 3 Parlay Slip- @ +951

Greg Rousseau Over 0.25 Sacks (-115) – KC Chiefs @ BUF Bills
Calais Campbell Over 0.25 Sacks (+125) – LV Raiders @ MIA Dolphins
Travon Walker Over 0.25 Sacks (+150) – JAX Jaguars @ DET Lions

Both are as great as an All-Combination or 2-pick Round-Robin Hail Mary as it gets this week!

Don’t forget, that moderation is key to enjoying these…

DEEP Defensive Week 11 NFL Prop Bets!

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