“It’s the Hottest NFL Week 18 Offense Player Props And Parlay Pick With NFL Player Expert Justin Mark!”
It’s Week 18 in the NFL! The last week before playoffs! We went 3-1 last week, for the second week in a row, and are looking to ride the hot hand on the winning side this week. We also haven’t lost an NFL prop bet since last year! This week is interesting because there are teams that will be sitting starters. Other players will be fighting to reach stats to get their bonuses. That’s where we attack as bettors. Let’s take a look at our best NFL Week 18 offense player props!
Odds Recorded On 1/03/2025 Via DraftKings
Mike Gesicki Over 28.5 Receiving Yards @-110 (Bengals)
The first bet on our list of NFL Week 18 props focuses on Mike Gesicki. Currently, Gesicki needs just three yards to cash in an extra $125,000. If the Bengals weren’t playing for something, I’d think they’d just do a short pass to him to get him the bonus and then pull him from the game.
However, the Bengals are playing for a chance to make the playoffs. A lot of stuff has to fall their way, but it can be done. To top that off, they play first out of the teams that need to win or lose to help them. Therefore, they’ll need to play hard and Gesicki should be part of that game plan.
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Gesicki is coming off an 86-yard performance against the Broncos. Now he’ll face the Steelers, who are 19th in the league in passing yards allowed to tight ends. He’s gone over 28.5 receiving yards in two of the last three games and is averaging 39.8 yards per game. Joe Burrow will get Gesicki involved and he’ll get his bonus and clear it in a big way.
Mike Evans Over 100.5 Receiving Yards @ -120 (Bucs)
The next bet on our list of NFL Week 18 props focuses on another team that needs to win and another player that is playing for incentives. The Tampa Bay Bucs just need to win to get into the playoffs. I’ve already boldly picked them to play in the Super Bowl against the Bills, so they’ll need to win.
One of the reasons they’ve been so good this year isn’t just Baker Mayfield, but his top pass-catcher Mike Evans. Evans is about to eclipse another 1,000-yard season. To top that off, another five receptions and 85+ yards will give him an extra three million dollars. You don’t think Baker, who is a team guy and football guy, will want to help reward his receiver.
The Bucs face off against the Saints. The Saints have nothing to play for except pride but it’ll be interesting to see if they can even muster that. It’s been a disappointing season for them, through injuries and poor play. They don’t cover receivers very well either, which will work in Evans’ favor. The Saints are 28th in the league in receiving yards allowed to wide receivers. Buckle up Mike Evans, you’re going to cash your three mil.
Zach Ertz Over 38.5 Receiving Yards @ -115 (Commanders)
The Commanders are playing for seeding in the playoffs at this point. However, we can still attack their game for our bets in NFL Week 18 props. That’s because Zach Ertz, their tight end, could end up earning an extra $750,000. He will get $250,000 for 9+ receptions, another for 90+ receiving yards, and another for 2+ touchdowns.
Do I think Zach Ertz is going to have nine receptions for 90 yards and two touchdowns? Not necessarily. However, I do think he’s going to get the opportunity to get some yards while they try to see if they can get him close to one of them. The most likely scenario is for him to be targeted in the red zone to get two touchdowns. This will come with yards, therefore I like him to hit over 38.5 receiving yards.
Dallas has been pretty good at limiting tight ends all year but it will be hard to determine the effort level they’ll be putting in. The last time these two teams played, Ertz finished with exactly 38 receiving yards. However, I think he goes over it this time as Jayden Daniels tries to help him get at least one of his $250,000 incentives.
Courtland Sutton Over 73.5 Receiving Yards @ -115 (Broncos)
The last player to target in our NFL Week 18 props betting is Courtland Sutton. The Broncos need to win this game against the Chiefs in order to make the playoffs. The Chiefs are going to be resting the majority of their starters since they’ve locked everything up. Can rookie Bo Nix lead his team to a playoff appearance?
I think he can, and a big part of that will be Courtland Sutton. However, it’s not just winning to get into the playoffs for Sutton. He currently only needs 82 receiving yards to cash in an extra two million dollars. In a normal game against the Kansas City defense, this number would give us some pause. Sutton did manage to get 70 yards against them last time they played but the defense has been really good against receivers.
However, that was the starting defensive lineup. Playing against backups, there’s no reason Sutton shouldn’t be able to get his 82 yards. Another way to attack this is in receptions. Sutton to have over 5.5 receptions is currently at +110. Sutton has fallen short of this number for the past few weeks. However, look for Nix and the Broncos to get him involved so that he hits his bonus.
Big Parlay By The Numbers: +1098
Mike Gesicki Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Mike Evans Over 100.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Zach Ertz Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Courtland Sutton Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
It’s as great as an All-Combination or 2-pick Round-Robin as it gets! As a bonus, add Sutton over 5.5 catches to sprinkle on a parlay that pays +1463.
Don’t forget to check out our other great Fantasy Football and NFL Betting content before you go! Thanks for reading my Week 16 Offense Player Props article!
