All NFL Game Prop Picks for the Week 17 bets, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 12/25/2024.
Greetings and welcome to the Week 17 NFL Props, Bests Bets Game Picks, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
One more before things get weird
Last week was a rough one, after a winning record the week prior, it was a tough week at just 6-7 in the podcast but 2-1 in this article thankfully. We’ve had a winning record in this article the last two weeks and three of the last four overall. This will very likely be the last article for the season for a few reasons. Starting next week, we could see resting starters on winning teams and random players out of left field “to get film on them” on losing teams. There’s a reason most fantasy leagues don’t have a Week 18 title game. And that’s the same reason this will probably be it for the year. It’s been hard enough to guess correctly on these picks without those additional negative factors. With that in mind, let’s make this one a good one! And we’ll be back next year for another go around. Good luck this week and happy holidays!
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions; they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper.” Set a limit and stick to it. For help with problem gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Hot Week 17 Sunday Prop Picks And Best Bets!
The bet: Over 38.5 alt line, -149
How to improve those numbers: Use the Vegas total (over 40.5, -115) or an alt-line of your own choosing.
A lower total and two bad defenses = opportunity
The rationale: These teams score about 35.5 points per game when combined (PPG rankings) so we’re pretty close to this right off the rip. A big assumption in that number, the Giants end of it at least (they score 14.3 PPG), is that New York will only score about 14 points against one of the worst defenses in the league and at home. I just don’t think that will be the case. We already know that Indy will put up some points against this shredded Giants defense. This bet just comes down to if New York can do their part to get us over this total. And against this defense, they most certainly can.
Indy will be able to run it all day long
Indianapolis should have a few issues scoring on this New York defense that is within the worst third of the league for allowing yards per game. They’re also the second-worst rushing defense in the league. Rushing just happens to be the bread and butter of this Indy offense. With Anthony Richardson completing fewer than twelve passes per game it’s essentially their entire offensive identity. They should have no issues pounding the rock early and often against this terrible Giants rushing defense. That same Giants rushing defense that is missing their best inside linebacker, and best defensive tackle, and is absolutely shredded in the secondary. The New York season is over, they’re starting guys we’ve never heard of and already looking toward the draft. Indy will take care of their end of achieving this over for us.
New York probably won’t win, but they’ll score enough for this bet
Speaking of injury-riddled defenses. Indianapolis is also likely to be missing EJ Speed, their starting inside linebacker, again this week. They’ve got injuries in the cornerback corps and defensive line and haven’t been able to stop a nosebleed on defense at any point this season. New York may not be able to compete or win the game, but they should score enough to hold up their end of this bargain. Beyond that, we’ve got a lower total here to begin with. That gives us an opportunity. If this line had started around 45 points or higher this wouldn’t be realistic. But with the lower line to begin with, we’ve got a shot at this working out. That factor plus the bad and injury-riddled defenses give this a great shot of working out for us. Let’s hope that’s the case!
The bet: Mason Rudolph over 220.5 passing yards, -137
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use the official DK or FD line when it drops (not available at the time of writing) or an alt-line of your own choosing.
Decent quarterback needs to cross lower line in an ideal setup
The rationale: Rudolph has cleared this line in 3 of 5 games he’s played this season. He cleared it just last week against a better defense than this. We’ve seen a clear difference in the productivity of stars like Ridley with Rudolph under center. He’s got the experience and the playmakers to cross this line. His matchup is literally perfect as well against this Jags defense. The same Jags defense that is dead last in pass defense across the entire league. They allow 263 yards per game through the air. Beyond that, Jacksonville is shredded in the secondary and hasn’t been very good at pass defense this season to begin with. The line is low enough and the setup is good enough that I think this has a good shot for us.
Jacksonville can’t cover and they can’t apply pressure
Jacksonville is not only the worst passing defense in the league but they also are now the third worst team in the league for sacking the opposing quarterback. They’ve only managed 28 sacks on the season. For reference, Denver has 51 and most teams have at least 35 at this point. They don’t pressure the quarterback and they can’t cover against the pass. Their secondary has been a dumpster fire all season long. I can’t remember the same lineup of corners/safeties in a two-game stretch for them this season. It’s been different players and playing time almost every week in the secondary. That’s not the sign of a good secondary at all. If you need to keep experimenting for going on seventeen weeks now then maybe the experiment was a failure.
Simplicity itself
There’s not much to this one. We’ve got a better quarterback than Will Levis under center for Tennessee. He’s got a lower line to cross to achieve this bet. And his opponent to clear that number could not be any better for us. The setup looks great, we’ll see if the football Gods allow it to happen for us!
The bet: Over 50.5 total, -110
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use an alt line of your own choosing.
Two powerful offenses, two shredded defenses
The rationale: We’ve got an outdoor game (but in California) between perhaps the best offense in the entire league (Detroit) and a San Francisco team with the talent and experience to at least hang with them enough to cross this total. When we factor in just how injured the Detroit defense is, it looks even better. These teams score 32.9 and 22.1 points per game respectively (Detroit & SF), we get 55 points there so we’re looking good to begin with. Beyond that, this game is outdoors but in California so there are no snowstorms to slow these offenses down. We already know that Detroit will score points in bunches. Whether or not this bet hits comes down to what San Francisco can accomplish this week.
Detroit is limping to the finish line defensively
And they should be able to. Not only are we all well aware of how much talent is on this San Francisco team, but they’ll have one of their easier defensive matchups this week against this shredded Detroit defense. The 49ers are still a top-ten passing attack, same for their rushing offense. And while they may be missing Aiyuk, Jennings has been a fine replacement to this point. They’ve still got their run game, they’ve still got Kittle and Deebo. And against a defense that’s missing Aidan Hutchinson, Alex Anzalone, Carlton Davis, Marcus Davenport, Alim McNeil, and many others, they’ll have an opportunity to hang with this excellent Detroit offense and score some points.
The Lions’ offense has been historic this season
We already know how good Detroit is offensively. They are first in points per game. Second in yards per game. A top-ten rushing attack. A passing attack that is now second overall across the league. And on and on it goes. They’ll hold up their end of this deal, especially against a San Francisco defense that could be missing Dre Greenlaw and is always dealing with a questionable Nick Bosa. These defenses have just taken too many hits this season but both offenses are relatively healthy. We’ve got a nice setup here for a likely shootout to close out Week 17. Let’s hope it comes to fruition and we clear this line easily. Good luck! Happy holidays!
Remember! Use this article and the podcast as “idea generators” instead of just a “blueprint to tail blindly” and we’ll both end up much happier at the end of the season. Learning to fish is always better than someone just handing you a fish. Good luck this week and thanks for reading!
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