“The AFC West is loaded with proven coaches, upgraded rosters, and strong quarterback play, making it a prime division for wagering opportunities.”
The AFC West remains one of the NFL’s toughest divisions and the most intriguing for bettors. With Andy Reid, Pete Carroll, Sean Payton, and Jim Harbaugh leading their teams, there are playoff-caliber rosters at every level. For AFC West betting in 2025, understanding the roster moves, injury situations, and fantasy football outlooks is essential to finding the right wagers. Let’s break down each team and highlight the top bets to target this season.
(This is an AI-generated article from a recently published IDP+ Podcast transcript.)
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Las Vegas Raiders: Pete Carroll Era Begins
Las Vegas moves into 2025 with Pete Carroll taking over after a dismal 4–13 season. Geno Smith reunites with Carroll at quarterback, and rookie Ashton Jeanty brings explosiveness to a run game that was the NFL’s worst last season. Alex Cappa strengthens the line, while Maxx Crosby remains the defensive anchor on a unit that lost several starters. Jamal Adams, Jeremy Chin, and Eric Stokes attempt to patch holes in the secondary.
Christian Wilkins is still on the PUP list with a Jones fracture, raising questions about his Week 1 readiness. Malcolm Koonce is expected to return from his 2023 ACL tear. Carroll’s presence should stabilize a team that desperately needed experienced leadership.
Fantasy Takeaways:
Brock Bowers projects as a top-five tight end, ranking 10th overall on draft boards due to elite usage potential. Ashton Jeanty carries RB1 upside with expectations of 20 touches per game. Jacobi Myers remains undervalued, having cleared 800 yards in four straight seasons despite poor quarterback play.
Best Bets:
- Raiders over 6.5 wins (-145)
- Jacobi Myers over 800.5 yards (-105) and 1,000+ yards (+200)
- Ashton Jeanty to lead AFC West in rushing touchdowns (+170)
Los Angeles Chargers: Harbaugh and a New Backfield
The Chargers face major turnover after an 11–6 season. JK Dobbins departs, replaced by Najee Harris and rookie Omarion Hampton. Tre Harris joins a wide receiver group that needs breakout production behind Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey. Trey Lance arrives as depth, while Joey Bosa and several starting cornerbacks are gone, reshaping the defense.
Najee Harris remains on the PUP list with an eye injury, while Cam Hart recovers from labrum surgery but should be ready for camp. Harbaugh’s offense will lean heavily on the ground game, with Hampton expected to emerge as the lead back if Harris misses time. Johnston, despite drop issues, remains Justin Herbert’s most reliable red-zone weapon after leading the team with eight touchdowns in 2024.
Fantasy Takeaways:
Omarion Hampton is the preferred RB target, with potential RB2 value as Harbaugh leans run-heavy. Najee Harris is a late-round bargain if his eye injury clears. Quentin Johnston remains a touchdown-dependent but valuable flex option in standard formats due to his red-zone usage.
Best Bets:
- Chargers under 9.5 wins (-110)
- Chargers to finish 3rd in AFC West (+210)
- Omarion Hampton over 1,000 rushing yards (+200)
- Quentin Johnston 5+ receiving touchdowns (+110)
Denver Broncos: Stability, Upgrades, and Playoff Potential
Denver carries continuity into 2025 after a 10–7 season, losing just four players in free agency. Sean Payton’s team added JK Dobbins and rookie RJ Harvey to complement the backfield, Evan Engram as a reliable tight end, and defensive playmakers Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga from San Francisco. The Broncos boast one of the league’s best offensive and defensive lines, setting up Bo Nix for success in his second year.
Greenlaw’s quad strain will not impact his season, while Alex Singleton’s ACL recovery may slow his early workload. Depth at linebacker and strong defensive backfield play help offset those issues. Denver’s balance on both sides makes it a legitimate challenger for the AFC West crown, making AFC West betting more exciting.
Fantasy Takeaways:
Evan Engram has top-five tight end upside in Sean Payton’s scheme, ranking TE8 in early projections. Courtland Sutton remains the clear WR1 with reliable volume. Bo Nix is a late-round QB option with a strong supporting cast and offensive line.
Best Bets:
- Broncos over 9.5 wins (+110)
- Broncos to win AFC West (+330)
- Broncos to win AFC (+1800)
- Courtland Sutton over 1,000 receiving yards (+145)
- Bo Nix over 30 passing touchdowns (+425)
- Evan Engram over 575.5 yards (-110)
- Nick Benito 12+ sacks (+230)
Kansas City Chiefs: Defending Division Dominance
Kansas City comes off a 15–2 season but faces a tougher path in 2025. Joe Thuney, Mecole Hardman, DeAndre Hopkins, and multiple defenders are gone. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons, back from a 2024 patellar tendon tear, headlines the new additions and is already working with the first team. Gardner Minshew and Elijah Mitchell add depth, while Omar Norman-Lott and Christian Fulton boost the defense.
Rashee Rice is expected to miss three to six games due to suspension, creating early opportunities for Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy. Patrick Mahomes has a deeper receiver group than last year, though the offensive line remains a work in progress. Injuries to Joan Taylor and Fulton are undisclosed but believed to be short-term.
Fantasy Takeaways:
Rashee Rice is worth drafting if his ADP drops significantly, as he should reclaim WR1 duties when active. Hollywood Brown is a value play early in the season, while Travis Kelce remains a red zone staple despite declining scoring in 2024. Patrick Mahomes projects as a top-three quarterback in volume and yardage.
Best Bets:
- Chiefs under 11.5 wins (-110)
- Patrick Mahomes over 4,050.5 passing yards (-110)
- Hollywood Brown over 575.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Travis Kelce 5+ touchdowns (-150)
Final Thoughts on AFC West Betting
The AFC West is loaded with proven coaches, upgraded rosters, and strong quarterback play, making it a prime division for wagering opportunities. Denver appears poised to challenge for the top spot, while Kansas City remains the favorite but may experience slight regression. Las Vegas should improve under Carroll and Geno Smith, and the Chargers could face a difficult road despite a reloaded running back room and Harbaugh’s influence.
Whether targeting win totals, futures, or player props, this division provides no shortage of value for 2025. Staying updated on injuries, depth chart battles, and suspension timelines will be crucial for cashing AFC West betting tickets this fall.
Thank you for reading this article by @IDP_Plus. This article was created using IDP+ AI and edited by Derek Bennett. Be sure to check out the video above by The Degen Doc and Professor Locks, which this video is based on, talking about the AFC West. Follow @TheDegenDoc and @Prof_Lock2 on X!
