“Tackle The Top Week 3 NFL IDP Player Props with one of the best Defensive minds in the industry!”
The NFL can just be weird sometimes.
If you’re the type of person who enjoys placing the occasional wager against the spread, then Week 2 was probably a bloodbath. The week was filled with upsets. The Las Vegas Raiders stunned the Ravens in Baltimore. The New Orleans Saints blasted the Cowboys in Dallas. The San Francisco 49ers were stunned by the Vikings in Minnesota.
It was one of those weeks that reminds us all that in the NFL, it pays to expect the unexpected.
The league’s defensive stat leaders aren’t any less mind-boggling. The current No. 2 man in the NFL in sacks is Pat Jones II of the Vikings—a player from whom a whole lotta nothing was expected in 2024. The league leader in tackles is Indianapolis Colts safety Nick Cross because of course it is.
Again—expect the unexpected.
Speaking of unexpected, this writer actually did very well last week—had Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie managed one more tackle, all five prop recommendations would have hit. It was a nice rebound from a less-than-ideal Week 1.
Now let’s see if we can keep the momentum rolling and get our hands on some more units.
Oh yeah—not even close to being done with “unit” jokes yet.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
WEEK 3 NFL IDP PROP BETS
Nick Bosa (EDGE, SF) Over .25 Sacks vs. Los Angeles Rams (-120)
The Niners certainly didn’t expect to be 1-1 two games into the season. But while speaking to reporters, Bosa said that while San Francisco is motivated after last week’s loss in the Twin Cities, the team isn’t about to panic over one setback.
“I think there’s always urgency here,” Bosa said. “I think that’s why we’re always a good team, is because the standard is high. And right when you’re not living up to it, it’s not panic. I wouldn’t say it’s panic, but it’s definitely an intense focus on getting back to it. So, yeah, nothing changes,”
This prop is rather low-hanging fruit—Bosa was the 2022 Defensive Player of the Year and faces a Rams front in Week 3 that has lost three starters over the first two weeks of the season. But easy wins are still wins—and sometimes that low-hanging fruit can taste pretty sweet.
Matthew Judon (EDGE, ATL) Under .25 Sacks vs. Kansas City Chiefs (+130)
A Falcons team in desperate need of pass rush help added Judon, who had 28 sacks in 2021 and 2022 before missing most of last year, just before the season. Judon was engaged in a contract dispute with the Patriots, but he told reporters he has every intention of earning a new contract in his new home.
“The Atlanta Falcons know nothing about me as a football player and about me as a man,” Judon said. “They really know my previous résumé. So, I can’t really demand or ask for anything that I haven’t worked for. And that’s where I’ve been my whole life. So, I’m [going to] work for it, man.”
Judon has made an immediate impact with his new team—the 32-year-old logged half a sack in the season opener and notched his first full sack as a Falcon in Atlanta’s Monday night victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Judon’s an excellent player and a great get for Atlanta, but Patrick Mahomes was sacked just 28 times in 2023. The sack streak ends Sunday night.
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Reed Blankenship (S, PHI) Over 6.5 Total Tackles vs. New Orleans Saints (-135)
Blankenship is hardly a household name. He also isn’t an elite talent. But the third-year pro paced the Eagles with 113 total tackles last year and has become a capable starter in Philadelphia. While addressing the media, Blankenship credited his success to simply playing within Philly’s scheme and doing his job.
“You can’t chase plays all the time,” Blankenship said. “It’s hard. Once you start chasing plays, you get out of position and stuff. It goes back to your technique and natural instincts. If you’re in the right position and everybody else is doing their job, then you have a chance.”
Blankenship had a big game in last week’s loss to the Falcons, leading the team with 10 total tackles and nine solos. The week before in Brazil, he had eight total tackles against the Green Bay Packers. Given that the Saints have scored 91 points in two games this year, it’s not hard to see Blankenship getting at least seven stops this week in the Big Easy.
Budda Baker (S, ARI) Over 8.5 Total Tackles vs. Detroit Lions (+110)
Baker is widely regarded as one of the best safeties in the NFL—he has topped 100 total tackles four times in his career and has been named to the last five Pro Bowls. The 28-year-old is also in the last year of a four-year, $59 million contract he signed in 2020, but Baker said he’s worried less now about next year’s payday than this season’s success.
“For me, I’m just controlling what I can control,” Baker said, via AZ Central’s Theo Mackie. “Just controlling having a great season as a team and of course personally but as a team and just winning games and letting everything else take care of itself. So mentally I’m just looking forward to this season and looking forward to playing great football with the guys and winning games. So that’s my sole focus.”
Baker led the Redbirds in total tackles and solos in last week’s blowout of the Los Angeles Rams and registered 10 total stops in Arizona’s season-opening loss in Buffalo. The Lions have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to safeties two weeks into the season—that should equate to quite a few tackle opportunities for Baker in Glendale on Sunday.
Nick Bolton (LB, KC) Over 4.5 Solo Tackles vs. Atlanta Falcons (-145)
Bolton is under more than a little pressure in 2024—a contract-year player coming off an injury-marred season. He’s also considered by many one of the best off-ball linebackers in the game—in a preseason poll conducted by ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, NFL coaches and executives ranked Bolton the fifth-best linebacker in the league.
Here’s quite the compliment for Bolton: He’s ‘the closest thing to Fred Warner’ in the NFL because of his football instincts, according to one NFL defensive coach,” Fowler wrote. “A wrist injury cost Bolton significant time in 2023, but he still managed 40 tackles in four playoff games on the way to the Super Bowl. ‘Fast, physical, tough, good for their scheme, assignment-sound,’ an NFC scout said. ‘Cleans up leakage vs. the run and not a throwaway on passing downs.’”
We hit with Bolton on an “Under” play in Week 2, but this week is another story. The Falcons will undoubtedly lean hard on Bijan Robinson and the ground game—in part to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field. That means tackle chances for Bolton—five solos isn’t that big an ask.
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Gary Davenport (“The Godfather of IDP”) is a 15-year veteran IDP and NFL writer and a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPSharks for more bad advice.
