“It’s the Top 3 Week 11 NFL Prop Bets And Predictions, with the One And Only, Johny The Greek!”
Greetings and welcome to the Week 11 NFL Prop Bets Game Picks, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
We had another excellent week last week with a 2-1 record here in the article (coming off a perfect 3-0 the week prior) and were 7-5 in the accompanying podcast which is out every Friday morning on our YouTube channel. Week 11 presents some interesting lines and challenges with a host of injuries and many close matchups to try and navigate. Let’s keep this winning streak going and get back into it with this week’s top 3 NFL prop bets and predictions!
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions, they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper”. Set a limit and stick to it, for help with problem gambling please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
All Game Picks for Week 11 NFL Prop Bets, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 11/13/2024.
The bet: Texans -6.5 alt line, -130.
How to improve those numbers (better price but riskier overall): Use the Vegas spread, Houston -7.5, -105, or an alt line of your own choosing.
The rationale: This is the most obvious Houston blood bath in the history of mankind. You can probably just keep the Vegas line here or even use an alt line to tweak this thing in the other direction (Houston -9.5, Houston -13.5, etc) and be perfectly fine. We’re just playing it safe here and making life easier. Houston just needs to win by a touchdown with this particular alt line. If this thing goes like it should “on paper” then we’ve got a complete blowout and total annihilation in a bounce-back win for Houston and another humiliating loss for Dallas on national television in front of the entire nation.
One massacre of Dallas coming right up!
Houston has had a tough run of luck lately with injuries and this has degraded their offense enough for them to lose close games in their last two matchups. They’re still at the top of their division but are starting to really need a win to get their swagger back. Well, the doctor has exactly what they need to achieve this with a date against Dallas in Jerry World on Monday night football. Houston will travel with their “top third of the league passing attack” to Dallas and face off against a struggling and shredded Dallas defense that is within the worst third of the league for passing defense and is just outside the worst third of the league for overall pass rush.
Mixon should eat well this week
Joe Mixon has been stellar all season and I would expect that to continue against this second-worst overall Dallas rush defense that is allowing 152.1 yards per game on the ground. Houston will very likely win the turnover battle as well as they are positive seven in this category while Dallas is negative ten, which is the third worst for this ranking across the entire league. Houston is also the best team in the league for offensive time of possession while Dallas is the fourth worst in this category. If it goes like it should on paper then Houston will control the ball offensively for almost six more minutes than Dallas will this week. That’s like two extra drives for Houston when we translate that ranking into something tangible.
“We’re on to 2025” in the land of Cowboys fans
DeMarcus Lawrence, Sam Williams, and Dak aren’t walking through that door. Cooper Rush looked like a deer in headlights against a Philly defense last week that wasn’t nearly as scary as what Houston is bringing to town this week. Houston is the fourth-best pass defense in the league and within the top third for rush defense. They also sacked the quarterback within the top ten overall across the league. None of this is close, none of this is ideal for Dallas. On paper these teams are light years apart and with Houston coming off of two close losses they’re hungry for a win. This Dallas team doesn’t have the firepower to hang with them at all. Houston wins by a million in all likelihood, but as long as it’s more than a touchdown we’ll be sitting pretty for our end of the deal.
The bet: Over 45.5 points alt line, -150.
How to improve those numbers (better price but riskier overall): Use the Vegas total, over 47.5 points, -108, or an alt line of your own choosing.
The rationale: We already are well aware of the Baltimore tendency to score an absolute shitload of points every game this season, that’s an established fact. What we didn’t know is that since DANGERuss took over under center for Pittsburgh they’ve been scoring close to 30 points per game and perhaps now have an offense that can hang with this explosive and record-setting Baltimore offense. While these matchups have traditionally been defensive struggles, the total from Vegas and what we’ve seen from these two teams is lining us up for a possible shootout this weekend and we’ll be there to take advantage of it with this alt line.
Baltimore is an offensive powerhouse
Baltimore is currently the number one overall offense, yards per game, and scores 31.8 points per game, also number one across the league. They have the best rushing attack and the third-best passing attack in the league. Pittsburgh defense or not, they will score some points this week that’s pretty much a guarantee. Pittsburgh is also a top-ten rushing attack and has been quietly improving their passing offense ranking too. They’ve climbed out of the worst third of the league and are trending towards the middle of the pack. They score 23.9 points per game and have scored 28,26, and 37 points respectively in their last three games. Those also happen to be the games where Russell Wilson has been under center.
Russell Wilson is a good quarterback? I must be taking crazy pills
It’s clear that the switch to Wilson has improved their passing offense significantly, and in turn, this has helped improve their rushing attack (fewer teams loading the box against them now) and we’ve seen this all positively impact their weekly points per game ranking. While Pittsburgh has traditionally been a conservative, “run and play defense” team, it’s been apparent for some time that without a complete offense or a legitimate passing offense, they won’t be winning anything important. Mike Tomlin knew this and made the move from Fields to Wilson. To this point, it’s worked out and now they finally have an offense that is comparable to their storied and always excellent defense.
Same hard-hitting matchup, now with added points
I’m sure we’ll still get the hard hits and physical football we’re used to when these two square off, that’s a given. But this time around we should also get some points. If their respective points per game rankings hold we should be looking at about 55 points total. With our 45.5 point alt line that gives us about a nine-point buffer, which should be sufficient for this to hit for us. It’s a bit of a projection, gut feeling, whatever you want to call it. However, the rankings and stats back up the call and Vegas seems to agree with their initial line of 47.5 points.
This isn’t my favorite bet ever, but with four teams on bye this week and many close or “iffy” matchups on the schedule, this is the best of what’s there in my humble opinion. Let’s offer a prayer to the gambling Gods for this one!
The bet: Lions -13.5 alt line, -106.
How to improve those numbers (better price but riskier overall): Use a different alt line of your own choosing or parlay this pick with others.
The rationale: This is probably a little crazy, in this modern age of “parity” in the NFL we’d almost never make a bet where our team needs to win by two touchdowns to cover, no matter the opponent. But with Detroit coming off the closest thing to a loss they’ve encountered in months with their poor performance against Houston last week and getting a home game against an inferior opponent this week we have an interesting mix of factors that not only make this possible but even likely to occur.
The unstoppable force versus the completely movable object
Detroit is currently the second overall offense in yards per game, top ten for rushing offense, and within the top third of the league for passing offense. They score 31.6 points per game, second most across the league, and are an unstoppable force on offense. Jacksonville will try to slow them down with their worst in the league overall defense, allowing 390 plus yards per game. They are just as bad stopping the pass, within the worst third of the league, and not much better against the run, also within the worst third of the league. They allow 26.6 points per game and only score 20.2 PPG themselves.
Good stats are for Detroit, bad stats for Jacksonville
Detroit is positive eight for turnovers while Jacksonville is at negative seven. Jacksonville will turn it over, Detroit will not. Jacksonville will be rolling out a backup quarterback again and just lost their best wide receiver to IR. Detroit just got one of their best wide receivers back from suspension and is one of the healthier teams across the league. They even strengthened their defense with the addition of Za’Darius Smith on the edge. Detroit will sack the quarterback more, from 24 team sacks to 21. Detroit will control the ball offensively more, with 30 minutes of offensive possession per game to 26 minutes for Jacksonville. And on and on it goes.
Detroit will improve on their 5 turnover performance from last week
Almost every single factor or ranking we routinely look at for these bets all have one thing in common, Detroit is better than Jacksonville. And it’s usually not close. I would be more worried about this if Detroit were simply on “cruise control” now and had won big last week like they normally do. That’s not the case though, after five turnovers and a last-second field goal win in Houston last week it’s clear that this Detroit team will need to “work out the kinks” and what better opponent for them to do so with than this horrendous Jacksonville squad. And the cherry on the top is they’re also at home in front of a friendly crowd. Literally every factor is pointing towards a Detroit blowout win here, which means it will probably be an upset and we’ll all look stupid.
Nostradamus would have loved Vegas
We can’t think like that though, look at the factors, data, stats, and trends. Take that information and make our bets based on the “most likely outcome” and that’s the best we can do. 99x out of 100 Detroit wins this game this week. 90 of those 100x they win by enough to cover this alt line. Let’s just hope we don’t get that 1 or 10% and we’ll be cooking with propane.
Remember! Use this article and the podcast as “idea generators” instead of just a “blueprint to tail blindly” and we’ll both end up much happier at the end of the season. Learning to fish is always better than someone just handing you a fish. Week 10 NFL Prop Bets
Thank you for reading my favorite NFL Best Bets! Please don’t forget to check out the IDP Plus gambling channel on YouTube. And catch my MONEYLINE for more prop picks. Please visit IDP Plus for all your IDP and “non-traditional” fantasy football needs, we’ve got you covered for all your leagues, DFS, best ball, and betting needs!
