“It’s the Top 3 Week 10 NFL Prop Bets And Predictions, with the One And Only, Johny The Greek!”
Greetings and welcome to the Week 10 NFL Prop Bets Game Picks, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
We had a splendid time in Week 9 with a 3-0 record for this article last week! I was also 7-5 in the podcast so we finished with a winning record in both places last week, very nice. This week we have four teams on bye, injuries everywhere, and the always unpredictable league itself to contend with. In this modern age of parity, it feels like even the most obvious matchups have a real chance to go South on us at any time. However, last week’s results proved that if we follow the trends, stats, and “most likely” outcome, we’ll be putting ourselves in a better situation to cash these bets than just shooting blindly. Let’s dive into Week 10 and see if we can keep the perfect streak going!
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions, they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper”. Set a limit and stick to it, for help with problem gambling please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
All Game Picks for Week 10 NFL Prop Bets, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 11/6/2024.
The bet: Vikings alt line -2.5, price not available yet but should be around -150 or so.
How to improve those numbers (better payout but riskier overall): Use the Vegas spread, Vikings -4 (-112), or an alt line of your own making.
The rationale: After breaking their two-game losing streak last week, the Vikings are back on track and looking to take advantage of another obvious mismatch against this inferior Jacksonville team. When we look at the rankings for this game it looks very similar to what we saw last week with Minnesota and Indianapolis, there are some key areas where Minnesota is light years better than Jacksonville and we saw that last week as well (and we all saw how that went). It is my belief that Minnesota, who are finally healthy this week as well, will overpower this struggling Jacksonville team and we’ll have an easy cash here in Week 10.
The turnover battle will be key
Minnesota is among the middle of the pack for overall offense but is within the top third of the league for passing offense and just got TJ Hockenson back to further bolster this advantage. They are among the middle of the pack for rushing offense as well but we’ve all seen what Aaron Jones is capable of so no worries on that end. They’ve got a plus-four turnover differential, positive, which is excellent, while their opponent has a minus-seven differential, that’s tied for third worst across the entire league. Jacksonville will turn it over, Minnesota will not, and the team that wins the turnover battle typically wins the game.
It’s been a long season in Jacksonville
The Vikings should possess the ball offensively for at least two more minutes (that’s another entire drive sometimes) than Jacksonville will if their time of possession rankings hold up. And while many teams are riddled with injury, Minnesota is one of the very few that doesn’t have an injury crisis on their hands at the moment. They are at full strength and are better in every offensive category across the board when compared to Jacksonville. They also have the second-best rushing defense in the league and are the 7th best team at sacking the quarterback league-wide. So while Jacksonville may have some luck in the passing game, which they aren’t great at, to begin with, we shouldn’t expect much from Etienne or Bigsby this week.
Mediocrity won’t cut it against this Minnesota team
For Jacksonville they’re just among the middle of the pack for overall offense, rushing, and passing. They don’t do anything well but they also aren’t terrible anywhere either. Mediocrity just isn’t going to cut it against this Minnesota team that’s just one game out of first place for the division and has beaten exponentially better teams (and handily beat them) already this season. There may not be a lot of science to this one but I’ll take the healthy team (Jacksonville lost Christian Kirk just over a week ago among other issues) that’s beaten teams such as San Francisco, the Jets, Green Bay, and Houston already this season. An away game against this Jacksonville team should be a walk in the park for them in Week 10.
The bet: Chargers alt line -6.5, price not yet available but should be around -125 or so.
How to improve those numbers (better payout but riskier overall): Use the Vegas spread, Chargers -7.5 (-105), or an alt line spread of your own making.
The rationale: This is another “two teams heading in opposite directions” type of bet. Los Angeles has been winning ugly, but they’ve been winning. And in recent weeks they’ve really leaned into uncorking Justin Herbert in the passing game. With this “balanced offense” we’ve been seeing from the Chargers in the last couple of weeks plus their stout defense getting back to full health (Bosa actually played last week) the end result should be a blood-bath win against this really bad Tennessee team.
The Chargers finally turn their quarterback loose
Los Angeles has been a “run and play defense” team for most of this season. However, in the last month, we’ve seen a noticeable difference in their passing game which was dead on arrival for the first four weeks of this season. 282 passing yards and 2 TDs last week, 279 and two more TDs the week prior, 349 passing yards the week before that, and 237 passing yards four weeks ago. To start the season they didn’t crack 180 passing yards in any game weeks one through four. This is huge, if Herbert is past that ankle issue and can comfortably throw the ball once more then the sky is the limit for this offense, which was already excellent running the ball.
A stout defense in LA
As things stand currently Los Angeles is among the middle of the pack for overall offense (YPG), just outside the top third of the league for rushing, and now among the middle of the pack for passing (they were within the worst third of the league for passing as recently as Week 5). The offense is producing in the pass game and it’s improving the overall production of the unit exponentially. They will absolutely be able to score early and often against this Titans team. On defense, their bread and butter, they are top ten in total defense (YPG), and first overall across the entire league in points per game allowed with just 12.6 PPG given up for the season. This defense is excellent.
Turnovers, not just a tasty bakery item
Will a Tennessee team that is within the worst third of the league for overall offense (YPG), second worst in the entire league for passing, and just among the middle of the pack for rushing be able to overcome that level of defense? I think not. Beyond that, Tennessee has a negative eleven turnover differential, that’s the second-worst ranking across the league. They will turn it over plenty this week, just like they have been all season long. Los Angeles is actually the 4th best team for turnover differential at plus nine, so the news is even worse for Tennessee as not only do they turn it over often but this week they get a Chargers defense that is among the best in the league at forcing those turnovers.
Choosing the most likely outcome and hoping it comes to pass
If you lose the turnover battle you lose the game nine times out of ten. If the other team scores more than you do then you don’t win. There is very little here that is positive for Tennessee when we look at these factors and others. On paper, this is a blowout and all we’re doing is turning down the Vegas spread by a point so that we only need a touchdown win. We should get that and then some this week, Chargers -6.5 alt line, book it!
The bet: Over 49 points total (-108).
How to improve those numbers (better payout but riskier overall): Use an alt-line to increase it to over 50 or more points for a better price, but it’s less likely to actually happen. Or “turn it down” a couple or a few points at the cost of the price to make this more likely to hit.
The rationale: There’s not a ton of science to this one at all. Detroit scores an absolute shitload of points every week and this Houston defense that is just middle of the pack overall probably won’t be able to slow them down much. Detroit scores 32.3 points per game and will be indoors once again in a dome where we’ve seen more points per game and yards per game every season for the last ten seasons consecutively.
We should have some points on Sunday night
With that in mind, we need just a mediocre performance from this Houston offense to clear the over in this game. Houston scores 22.3 points per game and if we get the “normal” output from these two teams we should be sitting at around 54 points, which clears the total of 49 rather easily. They should also be getting Nico Collins back this week and Joe Mixon has been devastatingly effective all season long, he should be in for a nice week against this Lions team that’s letting up just under 110 yards per game on the ground.
Houston needs to bounce back, they won’t quit if it starts bad
Neither defense is good enough to completely shut down the other offense, particularly with Houston being at home this week. There probably was a chance that it could be a total blowout if the game were in Detroit. But with this Texans team coming off a tough loss to New York last week they’ll be looking to bounce back at home and while getting their best wide receiver back as well. Detroit has shown us time and time again this season that they’ll always score a ton of points, whether they win or lose just comes down to their defensive performance.
Fingers crossed for a shootout
We’re not interested in a win or loss here, just points, and I’ve got a good feeling there will be plenty of points in this one. Abandon ship/skip it if the news on Collins’s return from IR goes South later this week, but assuming he can play I feel like we clear this line easily and get a nice shootout on Sunday night football in Week 10, as the only missing item from the Houston offense recently has been wide receiver targets. With Collins back that will give them an alpha wide receiver and allow some of the other “less good” receivers to go up against corners they might occasionally beat, it will be beneficial to the entire team to have him back on the field. If that all lines up we should be cooking with propane and get the shootout we’re looking for!
Remember! Use this article and the podcast as “idea generators” instead of just a “blueprint to tail blindly” and we’ll both end up much happier at the end of the season. Learning to fish is always better than someone just handing you a fish. Week 10 NFL Prop Bets
Thank you for reading my favorite NFL Best Bets! Please don’t forget to check out the IDP Plus gambling channel on YouTube. And catch my MONEYLINE for more prop picks. Please visit IDP Plus for all your IDP and “non-traditional” fantasy football needs, we’ve got you covered for all your leagues, DFS, best ball, and betting needs! Week 10 NFL Prop bets
