There are players that live up to the hype from your draft day, and then there are those who flop. You have to roll the dice, and sometimes, you get the gem. Here are three overvalued and undervalued Safeties for your 2024 Redraft Season.
Overvalued Safeties
Camryn Bynum – Minnesota Vikings
Bynum had an incredible 2023 season in ranking the #3 overall safety. It was such a great year that it has him as the #3 selected Safety according to ADP on myfantasyleague.com but is ranked the #17 Safety on fantasypros.com for drafts. Why the big discrepancy? Bynum has played nearly every snap over the past two years in the Vikings Safety spot. 2022 and 2023 brought completely different results in statistical output.
2022 had Bynum record 81 tackles (49 solo), 2 fumble recoveries, 6 passes defended, and 2 interceptions. In comparison, 2023 was a breakout year for him with 137 tackles (94 solo), 2 tackles for a loss, .5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 2 interceptions. Which Bynum will we get in 2024? Most likely, somewhere in the middle which would put him closer to the FantasyPros ranking than his ADP.
Antoine Winfield Jr. – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winfield Jr. was another Safety that had a breakout year in 2023. He produced another 50% more than any of his previous three years in the league. 2023 was also the first time he played all of the games since his rookie year of 2020. Not only were his tackles that much higher, but the big plays were career highs also. He posted 6 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, and 3 interceptions. Those will be very hard to reproduce in 2024.
Winfield Jr. is the #2 ranked Safety on FantasyPros and the #1 Safety in ADP on MFL. There are a handful of Safeties that should be selected prior to Winfield Jr. He had anywhere from 80-94 tackles in his first three years in the league. You should expect about the same in 2024 from him if he plays all the games. There is a 50% chance he plays all games. Let someone else take him as the #1 Safety.
Xavier McKinney – Green Bay Packers
McKinney is going into his fifth year in the league after setting a career-high in tackles with 116. How did the New York Giants reward him? They let him walk and sign with the Packers on a 4-year $67 Million contract. The #9 ranked Safety on FantasyPros and #7 Safety in ADP on MFL has not had the most consistent of careers to date. He only played 6 games as a rookie and then just 9 games in the 2022 season.
2021 and 2023 gave him a full season of games and he delivered to the tune of 93 and 116 tackles accordingly. The question now is are the Packers a good landing spot for Safety production? The Packers had 4 Safeties play in 2023 and combined, they produced 230 tackles, 3 tackles for a loss, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, 2 fumble recoveries, 13 passes defended, and 3 interceptions. This does not look like a comparable or better defense for McKinney to produce better numbers when you compare the Packer statistics to the Giants of 2023. There were 4 Giants that played Safety in 2023, and they combined for 284 tackles, 13 tackles for a loss, 4.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, 22 passes defended, and 8 interceptions. McKinney will have regression and should not be a Top-10 Safety in ADP.
Underrated Safeties-
Derwin James – Los Angeles Chargers
James is ranked the #1 Safety on FantasyPros but somehow is the #5 Safety in ADP according to MFL. All he has done is post 115 or more tackles in three straight years. He is the only player to finish Top-5 in each of the past three years in Safety scoring. Not only does he tackle, but combined over the last 3 years, James has delivered 17 tackles for a loss, 8 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, 18 passes defended, and 5 interceptions. Either you have the 28-year-old James as your #1 Safety, or you are wrong.
Kyle Dugger – New England Patriots
There seems to be a lot of disconnect in the Safety position when it comes to ranking and ADP. Dugger was a member of the 100-tackle club in 2023, and his stats have risen every year. This was good enough to have Dugger ranked #7 in FantasyPros Safeties, but the MFL ADP is much worse at #18. He should be drafted much closer to #7 than #18 because of his consistency and scheme. The Patriots just rewarded him with a 4-year $58 million contract extension as they see the impact of his play also. He has only missed six games over his four-year career. Not only does he tackle, but he gives you the big play rewards too. 2023 had him produce 6 tackles for a loss, 5 QB hits, 1.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 2 interceptions. Do not let him slide out of the Top 10 when drafting.
Julian Love – Seattle Seahawks
Love has to be the most underrated Safety of all time. He is ranked #12 on FantasyPros and is #12 in ADP on MFL. Problem is he was the #3 scoring Safety in 2022 and the #4 scoring Safety in 2023. Love had 123 tackles in his first year with the Seahawks while playing 41% or less of the defensive snaps in four games last year. He had 124 tackles in 2022 with the Giants while playing in 16 games. When you add in that he delivered the big plays of 2 forced fumbles, 1 fumble recovery, 10 passes defended, and 4 interceptions, you have a Top 5 player on any list. Be the smart player that snags him in your drafts.
Thank you for checking out my 2024 Redraft Overvalued and Undervalued Edge article! Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @OldMan_FF and @IDP_Plus (we have offense, too), and please consider becoming a subscriber!
