Some players live up to the hype from your draft day, and then there are those who flop. You have to roll the dice, and sometimes, you get the gem. Here are three overvalued and undervalued Quarterbacks for your 2024 Redraft Season.
Overvalued Quarterbacks
Anthony Richardson – Indianapolis Colts
It has been a while since the hype was this high on a second-year quarterback after he played just four games in his rookie season due to injury. Richardson only played one full season in college for the Florida Gators. That year for the Gators, he completed a very unimpressive 176 of 327 (53.8%) for 2,549 yards with 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He did add 103 carries for 654 yards and 9 TDs. Richardson then blew up the underwear Olympics with his incredible athleticism and got drafted by the Colts with the fourth overall pick.
Richardson started in Game 1 of the 2023 season and completed 24 of 37 passes but for only 223 yards. He added 10 rushes for 40 yards. Game 2 had Richardson leave the game with a concussion on the 18th offensive snap. He would miss Week 3. The Week 4 game had him with a 44% completion rate to go with 10 more carries for 56 yards. Week 5 was the end of his season after sustaining a shoulder injury on the 22nd offensive snap of the game.
If you look at his performance over the past two years, you will be hard-pressed to find any excitement in his game. However, fantasypros.com has him ranked as the #5 QB while myfantasyleague.com has his ADP at #6. Why? Do not fall for it. The defenses have already figured him out and knocked him out in two of his four games.
Jalen Hurts – Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts had improved each year of his first three years in the league including an appearance in Super Bowl LVII for one of the all-time classics against the Kansas City Chiefs. Then 2023 happened. They started the season 10-1 and Hurts had delivered in game after game with passes and timely runs. He was on a passing streak of 296 yards per game from Week 3-8. Hurts was rushing less with just 34 yards per game during that stretch. Then the bottom fell out and the Eagles finished by losing 5 of their final 6 games. Hurts didn’t even hit 200 yards passing in 3 of his final 4 full games played.
He had a lower percentage of passes completed than in 2022, which was the first decline of his career. Hurts set a career-high in interceptions with 15. He tied for his lowest yards gained per attempt and adjusted yards gained per pass attempt. Hurts was also sacked 36 times which was the second-highest amount of his career. When looking at his overall package and his trend last season, he does not warrant being the #2 ranked QB on FantasyPros or the #3 QB when looking at ADP from MFL. Let someone else take him at that spot while you get a better QB with multiple options in the available Top 10.
Joe Burrow – Cincinnati Bengals
Burrow can put up some monster games with the weapons he has in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. He can put up some stinkers too. He can post the #1 QB scoring results one week and then the #25 QB scoring results in the next week. FantasyPros has Burrow ranked as the #7 QB and ADP in MFL has him also as the #7 QB. Reasons to not take Burrow at #7 or higher include the fact that he has had 13 games of scoring 25 points or less, 7 games of 19 or fewer points, and 3 games of single-digit scoring. His injury risk and inconsistency should drop him to the 10-12 ranking in your QB room.
Undervalued Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins – Atlanta Falcons
Cousins is coming off of a torn Achilles from last October 29th, 2023. He has already received full clearance for training camp. In the first five games last year with Justin Jefferson on the field, Cousins threw for 284 or more yards in four of those games. He also had T.J. Hockenson to throw to. That was it for the weapons.
As a free agent this past off-season, the Falcons came calling and signed Cousins to a 4-year $180 million contract. He will start this year and have more weapons at his disposal. Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson will help to elevate Cousins to Top 10 relevancy. This is much higher than the FantasyPros ranking of #18, and the ADP of #16 according to MFL. He should break 4,000 yards passing for the eighth time in his career and 30 TDs for the fourth time in his career.
Justin Herbert – Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert has a new coaching staff and system for 2024. Jim Harbaugh is assumed to want to run the ball as often as any team in the NFL. The problem is that the Chargers will likely be trailing in games and will have to pass the ball to catch up. Harbaugh also knows what talent he has in Herbert and will use him and his arm to win.
Herbert is the #17 ranked QB according to FantasyPros and is #14 in ADP according to MFL. Excluding 2023 because he missed four games, Herbert threw for at least 4,300 yards in each of his first three seasons in the league. Herbert had 5,000 yards and 38 TDs in 2021. Harbaugh will not let that talent waste. Out of the QBs that played at least nine games last year, Herbert ranked eighth in scoring. In 2022, he was sixth in scoring. The Chargers have new rookie weapons in Ladd McConkey and Brenden Rice. 4,000 yards and 30 TDs are in the bag and he will reward your team with a late pick.
Matthew Stafford – Los Angeles Rams
How in the world is Stafford ranked as the #19 QB on FantasyPros and then has the ADP of #25 with the rookies all ahead of him? He has played for the Rams for three years now under Sean McVay, who just happens to be one of the brightest minds in football. In his 41 games with the Rams, Stafford averages 267 yards passing per game, almost 2 TDs per game, and less than 1 interception per game. He will be in the Top 12 at year’s end in your QB scoring. He has Puka Nacua returning from a record rookie season. Cooper Kupp will be healthy again.
Thank you for checking out my 2024 Redraft Overvalued and Undervalued Quarterbacks article! You can read all of my articles on my IDP Guys author page. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @OldMan_FF and @IDP_Plus (we have offense, too), and please consider becoming a subscriber!
