Tackle All The Hottest 2024 NFL IDP Prop Bets all season long with Gary Davenport and the New IDP+ Bets!
You may not know this, but sports wagering has become rather popular in recent years. I know I was surprised, too. That’s why I decided to write this weekly NFL IDP Prop bets piece for IDP+. It’s my first-ever wagering article—so be gentle.
I bruise easily, and words can hurt. Just saying.
Of course, I have been known to place the occasional wager of my own (Within reason—the Cardinal Rule of betting is never to make one you aren’t prepared to lose. It also pertains to casinos…especially casinos). And allegedly I am fairly knowledgeable about defense—Lord knows I spend enough time studying it.
The new All-22 feature on NFL+ Premium is like heroin for me—so much so that I’m legitimately reluctant to try it. I’ll wind up watching every pass-rush from 13 different edge-rushers and no one will see or hear from me for three days.
You may think I’m kidding. But I’m not.
So, I’m going to combine my affinity for wagering–I like winning as much as the extra units, although I’ll take all the cheese I can get) and my knowledge of all things IDP to offer up some bets each week I’m confident are winners. Will likely throw a unit or two at them myself—in for a penny, in for a pound.
“Throwing units.” Yeah—this is starting well.
Sportsbook Betting Videos
- NFL Best Prop Bets: Top NFC South Picks
- Top NFL Player Prop Bets: NFC North Picks
- Best 2024 NFC West NFL Player Prop Bets
- Top NFL Picks: NFL IDP Prop Bets
- Best NFL Picks: 2024 Player Prop Bets
- NFL Best Bets: Top Week 1 Picks & Predictions
SEASON-LONG NFL IDP PROP BETS
You no longer have to track down that seedy cousin no one in your family likes to make a bet nowadays (not that I ever did that), so there’s still time for folks to make a wager on season-long props.
And some look like found units.
Oh yeah—it’s going great.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Myles Garrett Over 13.25 sacks (-110)
You will notice something about my recommendations as we move through the season—many aren’t especially juicy. Juice is bait—a worm on a hook designed to make you believe a bad idea is actually a good one. If you gotta have that tasty juice, parlay my calls where possible. “Parlay” is from the French for “sucker bet.” You get 25-to-1 because there’s next to no chance that parlay will actually happen. Vegas prints money. They don’t give it away.
That’s enough proselytizing, which is Latin for “Shut up, you wet blanket.”
What is likely to actually happen is for Garrett to hit 13.5 sacks this year. It has happened in each of the past four years that he has played a full season. It’s simple. If you believe Garrett will be healthy, then he’s going to hit this number. I don’t like to assume injuries—it’s bad karma.
Azeez Al-Shaair Over 140.5 Combined Tackles (-110)
Full disclosure—the Godfather has been driving the Al-Shaair bandwagon dating back to his lone season with the Tennessee Titans last year. I considered wearing an Al-Shaair jersey to this year’s King’s Classic Butkus Division draft at the Pro Football Hall of Fame. If they had a bobblehead I could get my hands on, it would be sitting in my office right now.
He’s my bae.
But again, the only thing that can prevent this wager from hitting is injury. Al-Shaair’s high assist-to-solo ratio last year doesn’t matter here. All that does is the 163 total stops he posted. Now he’s in Houston, reunited with Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans and the team’s No. 2 linebacker opened the season on injured reserve.
Al-Shaair has a legit shot to lead the league in tackles in 2024. And 141 won’t come close to leading the league.
WEEK 1 IDP PROPS
OK, enough waiting for wagers that won’t pay off for months. It’s time to live in the now. Get some instant gratification with some Week 1 props.
Now let’s get our hands on some…
Nope. Not doing it. Just letting that “unit” joke go.
I have standards.
Josh Sweat (EDGE, PHI) Over .25 Sacks Against the Green Bay Packers (+220)
There, you want juice? There’s some juice—you can double your number of units and then some with a hit here.
That one there was no passing up.
Sweat’s 2023 season was admittedly disappointing—the 27-year-old saw his tackle numbers dip and his sacks fell from 11.0 in 2022 to just 6.5 a year ago. He’s all but persona non grata in many IDP leagues, languishing on the waiver wire.
But Sweat is a better player than what we saw last year, and the acquisition of Bryce Huff, the maturation of Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio could all provide a jolt to Philly’s pass rush. They may not tally 70 sacks ala two years ago, but they will be better—and it starts Friday in Sao Paulo.
Nick Bolton (LB, KC) Over 8.5 Total Tackles Against the Baltimore Ravens (-140)
There are going to be quite a few IDP leagues won this year by managers who got Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton at a value. A guy who misses over half the season lets folks down in a major way and said folks forget the fact that Bolton had 108 solos and 180 total tackles in his last full healthy season.
That’s right—the 24-year-old averaged enough tackles in 2022 to clear this bar. And he’s going to be a lot better than average in the season opener.
Not to go against something I said in this very column, but you can bet the rent (Really, don’t.) that the Ravens haven’t forgotten they scored all of 10 points against the Chiefs last year in the AFC Championship Game largely because Baltimore completely abandoned the run. That won’t happen Thursday night.
The Ravens also have a new running back. Derrick something. Hear he’s pretty good.
L’Jarius Sneed (CB, TEN) Over 4.5 Total Tackles Against the Chicago Bears (+120)
The hype entering this game is all going to be about Chicago’s revamped offense and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, but it’s not going to be even a little bit surprising (if Will Levis is even a competent quarterback) if the Tennessee Titans hang around in the AFC South longer than the Bears do in the NFC North.
That’s right. The Bears weren’t the only team that was busy in the offseason—the Titans spent big on both sides of the ball on players like wide receiver Calvin Ridley and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed.
The Titans are 4.5-point underdogs as I write this, but the game is going to be closer than that. Neither team is likely to have a ton of success running the ball. Sneed has 186 total tackles over the past two seasons, and he’ll likely spend most of Sunday’s game locked up with D.J. Moore for most of the contest.
Five tackles is an easy hit.
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY) Call 1-800-327-5050(MA)
21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP(AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800 BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI)
Gary Davenport (“The Godfather of IDP”) is a 15-year veteran IDP and NFL writer and a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPSharks for more bad advice.
