Greetings and welcome to the Week 1 edition of “best bets”, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season. This could be a weekly series in-season or may be published when I’ve got the bandwidth to make it happen, no promises either way, but at the minimum here’s a look at what I’m thinking for NFL best bets, way too early Week 1.
Just a little background before we get into it, we’ve now had legal sports betting in my state for several years and I haven’t lost the house yet and was among the first to dive into this head first after it became available. I don’t claim to be an expert. Still, I haven’t lost my shirt and have plenty of experience looking at different aspects of NFL matchups and exploiting any value within them for financial or fantasy football gain for many years.
Not my first rodeo
I’ve been a writer, ranker, and podcaster for this site and others for 8 plus years now along with playing IDP fantasy football for 22 years and a football fanatic since I started watching at five years old. I write the cornerback corner and specialize in “the deep end of the pool” when it comes to anything fantasy football or NFL-related.
I can’t promise that these will work out every week, that’s the nature of betting, but I can promise that I won’t put a bet into this article unless it’s been thoroughly researched and I believe it has a good chance of actually happening. I’ll be making these same bets myself so we sink or swim together. Let’s get into those NFL best bets, Week 1.
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions, they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper”. Set a limit and stick to it, for help with problem gambling please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
The bet: Bengals -9 (-110)
How to improve those numbers (riskier, but better payout): Tweak it to Bengals -13.5 (price not available yet)
The rationale: There are several “no-brainers” for Week 1 and this is among the best of them in my humble opinion. We’ve got two teams with completely different goals and ambitions for this season with the Bengals aiming for a Super Bowl before their window closes while the Patriots are just hoping to field a somewhat-competitive team once more.
Last season, despite Joe Burrow missing 7 games, the Bengals were able to stay competitive with a backup quarterback and were in the discussion for a wild card slot even missing their prized quarterback and with significant injuries to Jamar Chase and others. They are healthy for the first time in a long time and should be firing on all cylinders at home against an inferior opponent.
The Bengals are exponentially better on offense, they managed 21.5 points per game last season even with Burrow and Chase missing significant time. Compared to the Patriots’ (dead last in the league) 13.9 points per game last season we can already start to see the writing on the wall. Combine that with Cincy being at home and New England starting either a rookie quarterback in his first ever NFL start (Drake Maye) or Jacoby Brissett (who’s not exactly the second coming of Joe Montana either) and we’ve got a recipe where the Bengals jump out in front and force New England to become one-dimensional as they try and play catchup.
A recipe for disaster for New England
That plays right into the hands of this pretty solid Cincy defense that’s made improvements in the secondary and on the defensive line in recent drafts and through free agency. If the Patriots want to win this game or even make it competitive they’ll need to “drag Cincy down into the mud” with them and make this matchup about time of possession, limiting mistakes and exploiting any Bengals mistakes to create a short field or points from defense as this New England offense hasn’t really done anything to significantly improve in the offseason except drafting a wide receiver highly (which could work out, or not, who knows) and attempting to find their next franchise quarterback.
There just aren’t enough weapons in New England to keep up with the likes of a healthy Burrow, Chase, and Higgins, and that’s without mentioning all the hype we’re hearing out of camp about Chase Brown, who could end up being an excellent running back. If you believe in alternate timelines and realities it’s a safe bet that the vast majority of them include the Bengals blowing out New England in Week 1. And we’re going to ride that likely outcome all the way to the bank.
And frankly, that’s all we have control over, not being Nostradamus or an oracle myself I can only look at all the factors involved and guess the outcome based on those factors and the “most likely outcome” of each matchup. After that it’s in the hands of the football Gods, may they be merciful to us all. For me, this is one of the NFL’s best bets for Week 1.
NFL Best Bets Week 1
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Bucs
The bet: Tampa Bay Moneyline (-178)
How to improve those numbers (riskier, but better payout): Parlay round robin with other “likely” outcomes, Week 1. I’m not “so sure” about this one that I’d use an alt-line like Tampa Bay -6.5 etc. The Bucs should win, but it could be close.
The rationale: This is another example of two teams with completely different expectations for the season, Tampa Bay is coming off of a season where Baker Mayfield brought them back to the playoffs and they barely lost a hotly contested game against the Lions to go to the NFC title game. Washington is just looking to be competitive again and the way they’ve gone about doing that is by drafting a very talented young quarterback but surrounding him with AARP members instead of other young talent.
A whole new level of defense
Any rookie quarterback making their first-ever NFL start, like we’ll be seeing with Jayden Daniels and the Commanders, is in for a rude awakening as they attempt to cope with the difference in speed and power of NFL defenses compared to the college teams they’ve been competing against. For Daniels it may be less of a shock to the system since we know the SEC is the closest thing to NFL-level talent we have in the college game, apologies Big Ten enthusiasts but it is what it is. It will still very likely not be pretty for him, especially early in the season, and this Tampa Bay defense is plenty capable of making his debut painful all around, especially with the news that Yaya Diaby (DE) should be available for Week 1 despite an injury scare in training camp.
Las Vegas only has the Bucs favored by 3.5 points but I’m just not seeing it, this will be a home game for Tampa and a hostile environment for a rookie quarterback making his first-ever start against a “grown man defense”. Mayfield and Tampa Bay will have a healthy Chris Godwin available and back in his preferred role at slot receiver and Mike Evans apparently doesn’t age. The loss of Devin White for this Bucs defense was not as big a blow as many may think (46.1 PFF which is not great at all) and the Yaya Diaby injury, thankfully, wasn’t as serious as initially thought.
Just a hunch
This feels like Vegas tweaking the numbers to encourage some bets on the Washington side of things and a fairly likely win for Tampa Bay at home to start Week 1. Any given Sunday, “that’s why they play the game”, etc, is always a factor but in general, this feels like a pretty safe bet for Tampa Bay in Week 1. This looks like a great NFL best bet in Week 1.
More NFL Best Bets Week 1
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
The bet: Under 46.5 points (total) -110
How to improve those numbers: Use an “alt line” if this feels iffy to you (under 49.5 etc) for a lower payout but a safer bet. To improve the payout just tweak it in the other direction (under 44.5 or lower) for a higher payout but a riskier bet.
The rationale: Not only does this matchup feature the 6th and 2nd overall defenses from last season respectively but we’ve seen a trend in recent seasons where overall scoring is down, particularly early in the season. Through the first six weeks of the season last year, we were averaging 43.4 points per game (which is fewer than 47 points, the total), the lowest total we’ve gotten in years. Since 2020 NFL scoring has gone down each season and continues on this downward trajectory. We’ve seen the move, counter-move, trend where offense and defense trade places in which is more relevant since the inception of the league but it’s clear that we’re currently in an era where scoring is down and defense has the upper hand.
Credit to Robert Dunne, data journalist, for the graphic.
Mother nature won’t be helping us either
Not to mention this game will be played outdoors in Kansas City, and we’ve clearly seen through the past ten seasons that indoor games average more points per game than outdoor games do. This makes sense on a common sense level and is yet another factor pointing towards the under for this particular matchup.
With this in mind, plus the quality of these two defenses, and the fact that we literally just saw this game in the AFC title match a few months back and we only got a 17-10 game (we didn’t even get 30 points, nevermind 47), all of this points towards a defensive struggle and lower-scoring-affair. That could be completely wrong but once again, that’s why we play the game, all we can do as bettors is look at the data and “likely outcomes” ahead of time and make our bets with that information. If I could predict the future I’d be in Wall Street not fantasy Twitter. We play the odds and hope for the best, and the odds say we’re in for a defensive struggle with this matchup in Week 1. We’ll bet accordingly. I like this as another NFL best bet in Week 1.
Thank you for reading! Please don’t forget to check out the IDP Plus Moneyline channel on YouTube for “The IDP Plus Moneyline” show with Gary Van Dyke (The IDP Tipster) and yours truly where we cover our favorite bets each week of the season in a short audio format. Make sure you’re visiting IDP Plus for all your IDP and “non traditional” fantasy football needs, we’ve got you covered for all your leagues, DFS, best ball and betting needs!
