Kick Off Your Season Right With A Win With These Notable NFL NFC South Sportsbooks Props!
NFC South Best Player Prop Bets
NFL training camps have begun and is officially an acceptable time to get excited for the 2024 season. With less than 50 days until the NFL Kickoff, not only is it a great time for fantasy football, but it’s also the perfect time to find value in the NFC South betting markets. It’s time to put the projections to the test and put our money where our mouth is!
We’re kicking off this NFL Division Player Prop Series with none other than the NFC South. This is a division that I feel is wide open heading into the season, despite the Atlanta Falcons being the market betting favorite. Speaking of those Falcons, that is the only team you will NOT see featured in this player prop article. Due to their very underwhelming defense, seriously go check their depth chart, this creates a wide range of outcomes for a team with a fun offense on paper. If the Falcons don’t even know who they want at QB this season, it’s probably best we stay away too. Here are my four favorite NFC South player prop bets for the 2024 NFL season.
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
RB Jonathon Brooks Under 4.5 Rushing Touchdowns -110
Let’s kick this article off with a rookie running back. More accurately described as THE rookie running back according to many. Although I do believe that Jonathon Brooks has the potential for a great NFL career, I will not be backing him for the season.
Jonathon Brooks absolutely shined at the University of Texas last season through 10 games before tearing his ACL. Unfortunately, despite being a Junior last year, those 10 games are all we really have to judge Brooks. Last year was the first time he received any significant playing time and earned more than 200 yards in a season. Ending his first true season with a significant knee injury does not instill the most confidence heading to the NFL.
Looking ahead to this season, Brooks’s recovery time from injury to Week 1 is about 10 months. The anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) is a major stabilizing ligament in the knee. When torn, it requires season-ending surgery with a typical 10-12 month expected recovery timeline. RBs and WRs particularly struggle in their first season post-injury, due to both the physical and psychological challenges that accompany this injury. Research has shown it can take up to two years for a player to feel they have regained their normal, pre-injury, movement.
With only 10 months from injury to Week 1, there is no guarantee Jonathon Brooks will be ready for the season opener. I am expecting a slow start for the rookie as he will miss a significant portion of off-season reps. He also lands in a difficult situation with the Carolina Panthers. This is a team that struggled to find the end zone last season, especially on the ground. The entire team only scored 7 rushing TDs ALL SEASON. The Panthers also return their top two rushing leaders from last year, Miles Sanders and Chubba Hubbard.
For all of the above reasons, I’m on Jonathon Brooks UNDER 4.5 Rush TDs -110.
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CB Kool-Aid McKinstry Under 1.5 Interceptions +110
From one rookie to the next! We briefly switch sides of the ball to target New Orleans CB Kool-Aid McKinstry. Let’s specifically look at his interception prop. At first glance, you would think the projection seems a bit low for one of the best cornerbacks in this year’s draft class. However, when we dive into the situation, we quickly realize it’s actually a very friendly line.
In three years at the University of Alabama, McKinstry only had TWO career interceptions. This includes him putting up a goose egg in that category in his final season. McKinstry is a great prospect and could be a solid NFL corner, but he is not a ballhawk.
It is also worth mentioning that McKinstry still needs to work his way into playing time. He is currently listed as a second-team player on the depth chart. To make matters worse, he is behind arguably the best CB tandem in the league in Paulson Adebo and Marshon Lattimore.
Between a battle for playing time and historically not capitalizing on opportunities, I’m fading McKinstry’s interception prop. Give me Kool-Aid McKinstry UNDER 1.5 INTs +110.
WR Chris Olave Over 1025.5 Receiving Yards -110
This next play is a pretty simple read. Who else is New Orleans throwing the ball to? Third-year WR Chris Olave is already proven to be a top receiver in the league. He’s put up back-to-back years of over 1025 receiving yards and I don’t see that stopping this season.
Olave is the clear alpha dog in the New Orleans WR room and the numbers back this up. He was targeted an astounding 138 times last season, a whopping 52 more targets than any other Saint. The Saints did nothing in the offseason to expect any changes, and Chris Olave will continue to see the lion’s share of the workload.
Proving to be a consistent producer on a team lacking skill players, I’m on WR Chris Olave OVER 1025.5 Rec Yards -110.
WR Chris Godwin Under 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns -135
We wrap up this NFC South Props Bet article by heading to sunny Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are a team that will look VERY similar to last season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. This allows us to have a good idea of what things will look like for the 2024 season.
For the past three seasons, WR Chris Godwin has been a major part of the offense, just not in the red zone. Despite having over 1,000 receiving yards each season, he only has 10 TDs between the three years. Despite leading the team in catches last season with 83, only two of those catches were for TDs. This lack of TD receptions for Godwin even came in a career year for his quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield tossed a career-high 28 passing touchdowns last season, with less than 8% going to Godwin.
At this point in his career, Chris Godwin is the fourth or fifth red zone option on his own team. Although I think the Bucs can be a good team, with the loss of their offensive coordinator, it’s hard to project they will score a significant amount more passing TDs.
Chris Godwin is plenty capable of continuing to be a productive receiver for Tampa Bay, all while continuing his lack of red zone targets. Give me WR Chris Godwin UNDER 4.5 Rec TDs -135.
