Shaq Barrett, who sits down to pee, looks to rebound from doing absolutely nothing last week.
This article series will be set up exactly the same as last year’s was. For the Thursday night games, I will be tweeting the start or sit on Twitter (@Orangeman3142). This article will publish weekly on Saturday morning and will cover all of the Sunday games and the Monday night game as well.
Last year I was writing four thousand word articles describing the thought process behind all these “decisions” (start or sit and what tier of expected production). In an effort to cover every IDP relevant player and every matchup and team I’ve cut that part of this process out, for the record though I use past production, playing time, expected game flow and trends of the offense each IDP player is going up against as well as gut instinct and projections from places such as MFL, Yahoo, ESPN and Sleeper to inform these decisions.
If you’re looking for an explanation for a particular player feel free to DM me on Twitter, @Orangeman3142.
This is year sixteen of IDP for me so I’m not just throwing darts here and the two articles and one podcast I do weekly take more than enough time so this is what it’s going to be, if you’re looking for more detail for as to why certain players are starts or sits I’m sure there are articles out there that do that, it just won’t be this one. Also, I’m doing this for free and because I enjoy it so I’m going to have fun with it if you can’t handle jokes I would abort mission now, no harm no foul.
These start or sit decisions are only suggestions and in the end, the responsibility for your lineup is ultimately yours and yours alone. I’ll do my best to be as accurate as possible each week. These decisions I’m recommending are the same ones I’m making in my own lineups so we sink or swim together if you do decide to take any of this advice. Good luck in your matchups this week. Let’s get that hardware.
Every single game, team and IDP relevant player will be covered in this article series all year from start to finish. The production will be divided into categories like last year, this is how it looks:
Tier 1 Production: These players have the best matchups based on their playing time, past production, talent level, and opportunity. They have the most solid floor and a terrific ceiling. If you need guaranteed production these players are the best bet to get that for you. These will likely be obvious most of the time.
Tier 2 Production: These players will get you some points but are missing something that makes them your best choice. This could be a lack of playing time, talent or some other factor that hurts their chances at an outstanding performance. These players are usually a good option in deeper leagues with large rosters or all IDP leagues.
Tier 3 Production: These players are a shot in the dark. These are starts you will likely only make in larger leagues with huge rosters or during bye weeks or for short term injury replacements. There’s a chance it could work out but not a great one due to any number of factors including lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup. This tier is as close to “sit” as you can get while still having some value. These players are mostly used in larger leagues with huge rosters and in all IDP leagues.
Sit: Pretty easy, sit em. For any number of reasons from a nagging injury to lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup these players should NOT be started this week. I will be wrong on these occasionally throughout the season but at the time of publishing the players in this category are far more likely to bust and get you nothing rather than have a good or great week.
***Player situations change due to injury and other factors, this article was written days before Sunday so please pay attention and adjust your lineup accordingly ***
***If I don’t mention a player they are a sit or just not on my radar yet which likely means they should be a sit. If a player is inactive or injured after this article is published please use common sense and sit them. Check the inactive list at 11:40 AM eastern time and 3:40 PM eastern time on ESPN and NFL websites to check for surprise inactives each Sunday***
Last week I made approximately 222 “decisions” (start or sit) and got 164 of them correct or in the ballpark and 58 incorrect or not even close for a 74% correct rate. My average for all of last season was 74% correct overall and through this week we are holding at 74% correct for this season. Let’s dive into this week’s games.
***For any “EDGE” players listed the rule of thumb is to drop them a level in expected production from where they are listed if you start them as a regular linebacker instead of in a specific “Edge” or “OLB” slot in your league. This is due to the inconsistent nature of production for these players being sack dependent for the majority of their points. If your league has an “Edge” or “OLB” slot to plug them in to then everyone takes the same risk putting those players in that slot each week, however if you choose to use these players in a regular linebacker slot there’s a good chance they don’t get a sack and you end up with little to no points from them.
They are a boom or bust option when used in a regular linebacker slot. Keep that in mind as you play Shaq Barrett or Whitney Mercilus, there will be weeks where they don’t have any sacks and it won’t be pretty if you started them in a regular linebacker slot and your opponent started a guy like KJ Wright in that same slot when KJ gets his usual 4-8 tackles and you’re down that many fantasy points in just that one player to player matchup. We’ve already seen multiple weeks where both Mercilus and Barrett did nothing at all and if you played them in a regular linebacker slot it might have cost you a win. Buyer beware.***
Deion Jones tries to tackle a legend, Carolina USA circa 2019
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tier one starts: Devin White (LB) Lavonte David (LB) Shaq Barrett (EDGE) Jason Pierre Paul (DE) Bucs Corners, preferably Davis then Murphy-Bunting, this is an ideal matchup to start or stream Bucs corners,
Tier two starts: Jordan Whitehead (S) N’Damakong Suh (DT)
Tier three starts: Andrew Adams (S) Mike Edwards (S) Vita Vea (DT)
Sits: All others
Atlanta Falcons
Tier one starts: Falcons Corners, preferably Sheffield, Trufant & Oliver, this is an ideal matchup to start or stream Falcons corners, Deion Jones (LB) De’Vondre Campbell (LB)
Tier two starts: Ricardo Allen (S) Grady Jarrett (DT)
Tier three starts: Damontae Kazee (S) Falcons Pass Rush (Beasley, Clayborn, Bailey) Tyeler Davison (DT) Foye Oluokon (LB)
Sits: Kemal Ishmael (S) *Playing time*
Tremaine Edmunds remains as hot as a post taco bell poop, can he keep it up this week?
Broncos @ Bills
Denver Broncos
Tier one starts: Justin Simmons (S) Todd Davis (LB) AJ Johnson (LB)
Tier two starts: Von Miller (EDGE) Shelby Harris (DT)
Tier three starts: Broncos Corners, preferably Jackson or either Harris, this is just an OK matchup to start or stream Broncos corners, Derek Wolfe (DE) Malik Reed (EDGE)
Sits: Demarcus Walker (DE) *Playing time*
Buffalo Bills
Tier one starts: Jordan Poyer (S) Matt Milano (LB) Tremaine Edmunds (LB)
Tier two starts: Micah Hyde (S) Jerry Hughes (DE) Jordan Phillips (DT)
Tier three starts: Shaq Lawson (DE) Trent Murphy (DE) Ed Oliver (DT) Star Lotuleilei (DT) Lorenzo Alexander (LB)
Sits: Bills Corners, this is not an ideal matchup at all to start or stream Bills corners, if you do though it should be White then Johnson then Wallace.
This is a man who is likely questioning his recent life decisions.
Giants @ Bears
New York Giants
Tier one starts: Antoine Bethea (S) Jabrill Peppers (S) Alec Ogletree (LB)
Tier two starts: Markus Golden (EDGE)
Tier three starts: Giants Corners, preferably Baker & Jenkins, this is just an OK matchup to start or stream Giants corners. Lorenzo Carter (LB) Dexter Lawrence (DT) David Mayo (LB) Leonard Williams (DE) Dalvin Tomlinson (DT)
Sits: All others
Chicago Bears
Tier one starts: Roquan Smith (LB) Khalil Mack (EDGE)
Tier two starts: Bears Corners, preferably Fuller then Amukamara, this is a good matchup to start or stream Bears corners. Eddie Jackson (S) Leonard Floyd (EDGE) Nick Kwiatkowski (LB)
Tier three starts: Ha Ha Clinton Dix (S) Nichols, Williams, Robertson Harris, Goldman
Sits: Danny Trevethan (LB) *injured and out*
Can Minkah rebound against the vomit worthy Bengals offense this week?
Steelers @ Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tier one starts: Minkah Fitzpatrick (S) Cameron Heyward (DT) TJ Watt (EDGE)
Tier two starts: Terrell Edmunds (S) Bud Dupree (EDGE) Javon Hargrave (DT) Devin Bush (LB) Marc Barron (LB)
Tier three starts: Steelers Corners, preferably Haden & Nelson, this is just an OK matchup to start or stream Steelers corners. Vince Williams (LB)
Sits: All others
Cincinnati Bengals
Tier one starts: Shawn Williams (S) Jessie Bates (S) Nick Vigil (LB)
Tier two starts: Sam Hubbard (DE) Carlos Dunlap (DE) Geno Atkins (DT)
Tier three starts: Bengals Corners, preferably Dennard & Jackson, this is just an OK matchup to start or stream Bengals corners. Germaine Pratt (LB)
Sits: Carl Lawson (DE) *Playing time* All others
Is this your messiah? Have we really fallen this far? Someone just stab me to death with a spoon.
Dolphins @ Browns
Miami Dolphins
Tier one starts: Jerome Baker (LB)
Tier two starts: Dolphins Corners, preferably Needham & Rowe, this is a good matchup to start or stream Dolphins corners. Davon Godchaux (DT) Raekwon McMillan (LB)
Tier three starts: Vince Biegel (LB) Christian Wilkins (DE) Taco Charlton (DE) *If healthy and active*
Sits: Sam Eguavoen (LB) *Playing time*
Cleveland Browns
Tier one starts: Joe Schobert (LB) *If healthy*
Tier two starts: Browns Corners, preferably Ward & Williams, this is a good matchup to start or stream Browns corners. Mack Wilson (LB) Damarious Randal (S) Chad Thomas (DE)
Tier three starts: Sheldon Richardson (DT) Sione Takitaki (LB) *If Schobert inactive*
Sits: Larry Ogunjobi (DT) *suspended* Myles Garrett (DE) *suspended* Morgan Burnett (S) *Out for season*
He who claps cheeks will be in Kyle Allen‘s nightmares this week.
Panthers @ Saints
Carolina Panthers
Tier one starts: Panthers Corners, preferably Bradberry & Jackson, this is an ideal matchup to start or stream Panthers corners. Eric Reid (S) Shaq Thompson (LB) Luke Kuechly (LB)
Tier two starts: Mario Addison (EDGE)
Tier three starts: Tre Boston (S) Bruce Irvin (EDGE) Gerald McCoy (DT) Dontari Poe (DT)
Sits: Brian Burns (DE) *Playing time*
New Orleans Saints
Tier one starts: Demario Davis (LB) Cameron Jordan (DE)
Tier two starts: Vonn Bell (S) Marcus Williams (S)
Tier three starts: Saints Corners, preferably Apple & Williams unless Lattimore is active, him over Williams, this is just an OK matchup to start or stream Saints corners. Chauncey Gardner Johnson (S) Kiko Alonso (LB) Sheldon Rankins (DT) Marcus Davenport (DE) AJ Klein (LB) David Onyemata (DT)
Sits: All others
Apparently most of IDP Twitter didn’t watch hard knocks or read any box scores or snap counts weeks one through ten. I did.
Raiders @ Jets
Oakland Raiders
Tier one starts: Tahir Whitehead (LB) Eric Harris (S)
Tier two starts: Nicholas Morrow (LB) Maxx Crosby (DE) Clelin Ferrell (DE) Jonathan Hankins (DT) DJ Swearinger (S)
Tier three starts: Raiders Corners, preferably Worley & Mullen, this is just an OK matchup to start or stream Raiders corners. Maurice Hurst (DT)
Sits: All others
New York Jets
Tier one starts: Neville Hewitt (LB) James Burgess (LB) Jamal Adams (S)
Tier two starts: Marcus Maye (S) Jets Corners, preferably Maulet & Poole, this is a decent matchup to start or stream Jets corners.
Tier three starts: Quinnen Williams (DT)
Sits: Brandon Copeland (LB) *Playing time slashed exponentially when Hewitt returned to lineup*
This may look like a man but it’s really just a disaster waiting to happen.
Seahawks @ Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles
Tier one starts: Malcolm Jenkins (S) Fletcher Cox (DT)
Tier two starts: Nigel Bradham (LB) or Nathan Gerry (LB) *Bradham if healthy, Gerry if not, Gerry drops to tier three or sit if Bradham plays* Rodney Mcleod (S) Eagles Corners, preferably Mills & Darby, this is a good matchup to start or stream Eagles corners. Brandon Graham (DE) Derek Barnett (DE)
Tier three starts: Kamu Gruger Hill (LB)
Sits: All others
Seattle Seahawks
Tier one starts: Bobby Wagner (LB) KJ Wright (LB)
Tier two starts: Bradley Mcdougald (S) Quandre Diggs (S) Jadaveon Clowney (DE) Seahawks Corners, preferably Griffin & Flowers, this is a good matchup to start or stream Seahawks corners. Jarran Reed (DT)
Tier three starts: Mychal Kendricks (LB) Quinton Jefferson (DT)
Sits: All others
Damon Harrison is shocked as the fart he trusted ends up filling his pants with diarrhea, Detroit USA circa 2019
Lions @ Redskins
Detroit Lions
Tier one starts: Tracy Walker (S) *If healthy*
Tier two starts: Tavon Wilson (S) *If Walker inactive* Jarrad Davis (LB) Trey Flowers (DE)
Tier three starts: Will Harris (S) Devon Kennard (LB) A’Shawn Robinson (DT) Christian Jones (LB) Damon Harrison (DT) Jahlani Tavai (LB)
Sits: Mike Daniels (DT) Lions Corners, there are better places to stream from this week.
Washington Redskins
Tier one starts: Landon Collins (S) Jonathan Allen (DT)
Tier two starts: Montae Nicholson (S) Jon Bostic (LB) Matt Ioannidis (DE)
Tier three starts: Cole Holcomb (LB) Redskins Corners, preferably Norman & Dunbar, this is just an OK matchup to start or stream Skins corners. Ryan Kerrigan (EDGE) Montez Sweat (EDGE) Daron Payne (DT)
Sits: Shaun Dion Hamilton (LB) *Playing time*
The best rookie defensive end by a mile seconds before he destroys the latest warm body quarterback for the Bengals, Jacksonville USA circa 2019
Jaguars @ Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tier one starts: Myles Jack (LB) Calais Campbell (DE)
Tier two starts: Ronnie Harrison (S) Jaguars Corners, preferably Bouye & Herndon, this is a decent matchup to start or stream Jags corners. Najee Goode (LB) Yannick Ngakoue (DE) Josh Allen (DE)
Tier three starts: Jarod Wilson (S)
Sits: All others
Tennessee Titans
Tier one starts: Jayon Brown (LB)
Tier two starts: Kevin Byard (S) Titans Corners, preferably Ryan & Jackson, this is a good matchup to start or stream Titans corners. Rashaan Evans (LB) Harold Landry (EDGE) Jurell Casey (DT)
Tier three starts: Kenny Vaccaro (S)
Sits: All others
Can the Hot Boyz clap the Patriots cheeks this week or will I scoop out my eyes with a fork? Probably number two.
Cowboys @ Patriots
Dallas Cowboys
Tier one starts: Jaylon Smith (LB) Sean Lee (LB) Demarcus Lawrence (DE)
Tier two starts: Xavier Woods (S) Darian Thompson (S) or Jeff Heath (S) *Heath if healthy, Thompson if not* Cowboys Cornerbacks, preferably Awuzie & Jones, this is a good matchup to start or stream Cowboys corners. Robert Quinn (DE) Micheal Bennett (DE)
Tier three starts: Malik Collins (DT)
Sits: All others
New England Patriots
Tier one starts: Jamie Collins (LB) *Maybe, who knows, always a roll of the dice playing any Patriots IDP*
Tier two starts: Devin McCourty (S) Kyle Van Noy (LB) Stephon Gilmore (CB) *This is a good matchup to start or stream Patriots corners but Gilmore is the only safe one in my opinion, if you want to start one that isn’t him that’s on you*
Tier three starts: NA
Sits: All others
The most beautiful man in the NFL, no contest.
Packers @ 49ers
Green Bay Packers
Tier one starts: Blake Martinez (LB)
Tier two starts: Darnell Savage (S) Packers Corners, preferably King & Alexander, this is a good matchup to start or stream Packers corners. Preston Smith (EDGE) Za’Darius Smith (EDGE) Kenny Clark (DT)
Tier three starts: Adrian Amos (S)
Sits: All others
San Francisco 49ers
Tier one starts: Fred Warner (LB) Nick Bosa (DE) Deforest Buckner (DT)
Tier two starts: Jimmy Ward (S) Jaquiski Tartt (S) Dre Greenlaw (LB) Arik Armstead (DT) 49ers Corners, preferably Sherman & Moseley, this is a good matchup to start or stream 49ers corners.
Tier three starts: Solomon Thomas (DE) Dee Ford (EDGE)
Sits: All others
He who also claps cheeks looks to slow down Lamar Jackson this week.
Ravens @ Rams
Baltimore Ravens
Tier one starts: NA, no consistency in production or playing time or real stud to be found here.
Tier two starts: Chuck Clark (S) Matt Judon (EDGE) Ravens Corners, preferably Peters & Humphrey, this is a decent matchup to start or stream Ravens corners.
Tier three starts: Earl Thomas (S)
Sits: Patrick Onwuasor (LB) *15% snaps last week* All others, seriously, ALL others.
Los Angeles Rams
Tier one starts: Cory Littleton (LB) Taylor Rapp (S) Aaron Donald (DT)
Tier two starts: Dante Fowler (EDGE) Clay Matthews (EDGE)
Tier three starts: Rams Corners, preferably Hill & Ramsey, this is just an OK matchup to start or stream Rams corners. Eric Weddle (S) Micheal Brockers (DE)
Sits: Marqui Christian (S) Troy Reeder (LB) *Playing time for both*
***Please make sure to check the inactives that come out each Sunday before the games start to make sure your players aren’t a surprise inactive due to a surprise injury. Obviously, if I have any of these guys listed as a start of any kind and they are inactive DO NOT START THEM. This article is written usually days before the games and surprise injuries can and will happen, make sure you stay up to date to avoid getting a surprise zero in your lineup***
***These are only suggestions ultimately it’s your decision who you start or sit. If a player gets hurt or has a bad game it happens it’s part of the game and not the result of me using a voodoo doll with your fantasy team’s name on it. I wish you all nothing but the best and hope you win all your matchups this and every week. Take home that hardware.***
Keep an eye out for my instant reaction and defensive waivers article dropping during the week next week, likely Thursday morning. I’ll be covering all the production and playing time from every single IDP relevant player and giving you options for defensive waivers. We’ll go over the week’s results and make sure you are ahead of the curve for getting any of those surprise studs AKA Darius Leonard last year. The next week’s start or sit will drop next Saturday morning and the Thursday night games start or sit will be in Tweet form (@Orangeman3142). Also, make sure and catch our weekly podcast on all your podcatching sites dropping Tuesday night or Wednesday morning all season long. Idpguys.org will continue to be your one-stop-shop for all things IDP.
Thank you for reading and good luck in this week’s matchups. Make sure you’re following @IDP_Dude and @JoeythetoothIDP to make sure you’re covered from all angles in regards to waivers, starts and sits and general IDP information, the three of us handle the Lions share of the IDP writing here at the site.
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