This is who I see in my nightmares every night.
This article series will be set up exactly the same as last year’s was. For the Thursday night games, I will be tweeting the start or sit on Twitter (@Orangeman3142). This article will publish weekly on Saturday morning and will cover all of the Sunday games and the Monday night game as well.
Last year I was writing four thousand word articles describing the thought process behind all these “decisions” (start or sit and what tier of expected production). In an effort to cover every IDP relevant player and every matchup and team I’ve cut that part of this process out, for the record though I use past production, playing time, expected game flow and trends of the offense each IDP player is going up against as well as gut instinct and projections from places such as MFL, Yahoo, ESPN and Sleeper to inform these decisions.
If you’re looking for an explanation for a particular player feel free to DM me on Twitter, @Orangeman3142.
This is year sixteen of IDP for me so I’m not just throwing darts here and the two articles and one podcast I do weekly take more than enough time so this is what it’s going to be, if you’re looking for more detail for as to why certain players are starts or sits I’m sure there are articles out there that do that, it just won’t be this one. Also, I’m doing this for free and because I enjoy it so I’m going to have fun with it if you can’t handle jokes I would abort mission now, no harm no foul.
These start or sit decisions are only suggestions and in the end, the responsibility for your lineup is ultimately yours and yours alone. I’ll do my best to be as accurate as possible each week. These decisions I’m recommending are the same ones I’m making in my own lineups so we sink or swim together if you do decide to take any of this advice. Good luck in your matchups this week. Let’s get that hardware.
Every single game, team and IDP relevant player will be covered in this article series all year from start to finish. The production will be divided into categories like last year, this is how it looks:
Tier 1 Production: These players have the best matchups based on their playing time, past production, talent level, and opportunity. They have the most solid floor and a terrific ceiling. If you need guaranteed production these players are the best bet to get that for you. These will likely be obvious most of the time.
Tier 2 Production: These players will get you some points but are missing something that makes them your best choice. This could be a lack of playing time, talent or some other factor that hurts their chances at an outstanding performance. These players are usually a good option in deeper leagues with large rosters or all IDP leagues.
Tier 3 Production: These players are a shot in the dark. These are starts you will likely only make in larger leagues with huge rosters or during bye weeks or for short term injury replacements. There’s a chance it could work out but not a great one due to any number of factors including lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup. This tier is as close to “sit” as you can get while still having some value. These players are mostly used in larger leagues with huge rosters and in all IDP leagues.
Sit: Pretty easy, sit em. For any number of reasons from a nagging injury to lack of playing time, talent or ideal matchup these players should NOT be started this week. I will be wrong on these occasionally throughout the season but at the time of publishing the players in this category are far more likely to bust and get you nothing rather than have a good or great week.
***Player situations change due to injury and other factors, this article was written days before Sunday so please pay attention and adjust your lineup accordingly ***
***If I don’t mention a player they are a sit or just not on my radar yet which likely means they should be a sit. If a player is inactive or injured after this article is published please use common sense and sit them. Check the inactive list at 11:40 AM eastern time and 3:40 PM eastern time on ESPN and NFL websites to check for surprise inactives each Sunday***
Last week I made approximately 214 “decisions” (start or sit) and got 157 of them correct or in the ballpark and 57 incorrect or not even close for a 74% correct rate. My average for all of last season was 74% correct overall and through this week we are holding at 74% correct for this season. Let’s dive into this week’s games.
***For any “EDGE” players listed the rule of thumb is to drop them a level in expected production from where they are listed if you start them as a regular linebacker instead of in a specific “Edge” or “OLB” slot in your league. This is due to the inconsistent nature of production for these players being sack dependent for the majority of their points. If your league has an “Edge” or “OLB” slot to plug them in to then everyone takes the same risk putting those players in that slot each week, however if you choose to use these players in a regular linebacker slot there’s a good chance they don’t get a sack and you end up with little to no points from them.
They are a boom or bust option when used in a regular linebacker slot. Keep that in mind as you play Shaq Barrett or Whitney Mercilus, there will be weeks where they don’t have any sacks and it won’t be pretty if you started them in a regular linebacker slot and your opponent started a guy like KJ Wright in that same slot when KJ gets his usual 4-8 tackles and you’re down that many fantasy points in just that one player to player matchup. We’ve already seen a multiple week stretch where both Mercilus and Barrett did nothing at all and if you played them in a regular linebacker slot it might have cost you a win. Buyer beware.***
Damon Harrison squats and takes a shit on the field in front of tens of thousands of shocked and horrified fans, Detroit USA Circa 2019
Cowboys @ Lions
Dallas Cowboys
Tier one starts: Jaylon Smith (LB) Leighton Vander Esch (LB) Demarcus Lawrence (DE)
Tier two starts: Xavier Woods (S) Cowboys Cornerbacks *This is a good matchup to start or stream Cowboys corners, preferably Awuzie, Jones then Lewis, drop to sit if Matt Stafford (QB) doesn’t play* Robert Quinn (DE)
Tier three starts: Darian Thompson (S) Jeff Heath (S) Micheal Bennett (DE) Maliek Collins (DT) Antwuan Woods (DT) Sean Lee (LB)
Sits: All others
Detroit Lions
Tier one starts: Tracy Walker (S) *If healthy, if inactive substitute Tavon Wilson (S) and drop to tier two* Jarrad Davis (LB)
Tier two starts: Will Harris (S) Lions Cornerbacks *This is a good matchup to start or stream Lions corners, preferably Slay, Melvin then Coleman* Trey Flowers (DE) Christian Jones (LB) Damon Harrison (DT)
Tier three starts: Devon Kennard (LB) Jahlani Tavai (LB) A’Shawn Robinson (DT)
Sits: Mike Daniels (DT) All others
Darius Leonard will play football this week.
Jaguars @ Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tier one starts: Myles Jack (LB) Calais Campbell (DE)
Tier two starts: Ronnie Harrison (S) Najee Goode (LB) Yannick Ngakoue (DE) Josh Allen (DE)
Tier three starts: Jarrod Wilson (S) Jags Cornerbacks *This is just an OK matchup to start or stream Jags corners, preferably Bouye, Herndon & Borders*
Sits: All others
Indianapolis Colts
Tier one starts: Darius Leonard (LB) Justin Houston (DE)
Tier two starts: Colts Cornerbacks *This is a good matchup to start or stream Colts corners, preferably Moore & Ya Sin* Khari Willis (S) Anthony Walker (LB) Jabbal Sheard (DE)
Tier three starts: Malik Hooker (S) Denico Autry (DT) Margus Hunt (DT)
Sits: Clayton Geathers (S) *Playing time* All others
Tremaine Edmunds has been scalding hot recently, much like a taco bell poop.
Bills @ Dolphins
Buffalo Bills
Tier one starts: Tremaine Edmunds (LB) Matt Milano (LB) Jordan Poyer (S)
Tier two starts: Bills Cornerbacks *This is a good matchup to start or stream Bills corners, preferably White & Wallace* Micah Hyde (S) Trent Murphy (DE) Jordan Phillips (DT) Jerry Hughes (DE)
Tier three starts: Star Lotuleilei (DT) Lorenzo Alexander (LB) Shaq Lawson (DE)
Sits: Ed Oliver (DT) *Playing time, production*
Miami Dolphins
Tier one starts: Reshad Jones (S) *If healthy* Jerome Baker (LB)
Tier two starts: Raekwon McMillan (LB) Davon Godchaux (DT)
Tier three starts: Taco Charlton (DE) Dolphins Cornerbacks *This is just an OK matchup to start or stream Miami corners, preferably Needham & Rowe* Vince Biegel (LB)
Sits: Sam Eguavoen (LB) *Playing time, production* All others
Can Danielle Hunter get back into the swing of things this week? Why do I put myself through this every week? What is the meaning of life?
Broncos @ Vikings
Denver Broncos
Tier one starts: Justin Simmons (S) AJ Johnson (LB) Todd Davis (LB)
Tier two starts: Broncos Cornerbacks *This is a decent matchup to start or stream Broncos corners, preferably Jackson or either Harris* Von Miller (EDGE)
Tier three starts: Malik Reed (EDGE) Derek Wolfe (DE) Demarcus Walker (DE)
Sits: Josey Jewell (LB) All others
Minnesota Vikings
Tier one starts: Eric Kendricks (LB) Harrison Smith (S) Danielle Hunter (DE)
Tier two starts: Anthony Harris (S) Anthony Barr (EDGE) Everson Griffen (DE) Linval Joseph (DT) *If healthy*
Tier three starts: Vikings Cornerbacks *This is just an OK matchup to start or stream Vikings corners, preferably Rhodes & Waynes if he’s healthy, if not go with Hughes*
Sits: All others
Cameron Jordan doesn’t pee sitting down.
Saints @ Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints
Tier one starts: Saints Cornerbacks *This is an ideal matchup to start or stream Saints corners, preferably Apple and Lattimore, if he’s not healthy then Williams* Demario Davis (LB) Cameron Jordan (DE)
Tier two starts: Vonn Bell (S) Marcus Williams (S) Marcus Davenport (DE)
Tier three starts: AJ Klein (LB) Kiko Alonso (LB) Sheldon Rankins (DT) Chauncey Gardner Johnson (S)
Sits: All others
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tier one starts: Jordan Whitehead (S) Lavonte David (LB) Shaq Barrett (EDGE)
Tier two starts: Devin White (LB) Jason Pierre Paul (LB) N’Damakong Suh (DT) Bucs Cornerbacks *This is a good matchup to start or stream Bucs corners, preferably Murphy-Bunting and Stewart*
Tier three starts: Andrew Adams (S) Mike Edwards (S)
Sits: All others
Jonathan Allen is a man.
Jets @ Redskins
New York Jets
Tier one starts: Jamal Adams (S)
Tier two starts: Neville Hewitt (LB) *If healthy, Brandon Copeland (LB) If Hewitt inactive* James Burgess (LB)
Tier three starts: Jets Cornerbacks *This is just an OK matchup to start or stream Jets corners, preferably Poole & Maulet* Marcus Maye (S) Quinnen Williams (DT)
Sits: All others
Washington Redskins
Tier one starts: Landon Collins (S) Jonathan Allen (DT)
Tier two starts: Jon Bostic (LB) Matt Ioannidis (DE)
Tier three starts: Troy Apke (S) Skins Cornerbacks *This is just an OK matchup to start or stream Skins corners, preferably Norman & Dunbar* Ryan Kerrigan (EDGE) Daron Payne (DT) Cole Holcomb (LB) Montez Sweat (EDGE)
Sits: Shaun Dion Hamilton (LB) All others
Betting on Deion Jones to win season combined tackles leader, bad idea. Eating Chipotle with fresh underwear, worse idea.
Falcons @ Panthers
Atlanta Falcons
Tier one starts: Deion Jones (LB) Grady Jarrett (DT)
Tier two starts: Ricardo Allen (S) Devondre Campbell (LB)
Tier three starts: Falcons Cornerbacks *This is just an OK matchup to start or stream Falcons corners, preferably Oliver & Sheffield* Damontae Kazee (S) Falcons Pass Rush (Mckinley, Beasley, Clayborn) Foye Oluokon (LB) Tyeler Davison (DT)
Sits: Kemal Ishmael (S) All others
Carolina Panthers
Tier one starts: Eric Reid (S) Luke Kuechly (LB) Panthers Cornerbacks *This is an ideal matchup to start or stream Panthers corners, preferably Jackson, Bradberry & Cockrell*
Tier two starts: Shaq Thompson (LB) Mario Addison (EDGE)
Tier three starts: Tre Boston (S) Bruce Irvin (EDGE) Gerald McCoy (DT) Dontari Poe (DT)
Sits: Brians Burns (EDGE) *Playing time*
This game will have offensive fireworks, IDP production? Not as much.
Texans @ Ravens
Baltimore Ravens
Tier one starts: Chuck Clark (S)
Tier two starts: Ravens Cornerbacks *This is a good matchup to start or stream Ravens corners, preferably Peters & Humphrey* Matt Judon (EDGE) Earl Thomas (S)
Tier three starts: Josh Bynes (LB) Patrick Onwuasor (LB)
Sits: LJ Fort (LB) All others
Houston Texans
Tier one starts: Zach Cunningham (LB) Bernardrick McKinney (LB)
Tier two starts: Justin Reid (S) Whitney Mercilus (EDGE) Texans Cornerbacks *This is a decent matchup to start or stream Texans corners, preferably Conley & Joseph*
Tier three starts: Jahleel Addae (S) Brennan Scarlett (LB) DJ Reader (DT)
Sits: All others
Deforest Buckner was clapping cheeks last week.
Cardinals @ 49ers
Arizona Cardinals
Tier one starts: Jordan Hicks (LB) Budda Baker (S) Chandler Jones (EDGE)
Tier two starts: Jalen Thompson (S) Haason Redick (LB)
Tier three starts: Cardinals Cornerbacks *This is just an OK matchup to start or stream Cardinals corners, preferably Murphy & Peterson* Terrell Suggs (EDGE) Corey Peters (DT) Rodney Gunter (DE)
Sits: Joe Walker (LB) All others
San Francisco 49ers
Tier one starts: Fred Warner (LB) Deforest Buckner (DT) Nick Bosa (DE)
Tier two starts: Jaquiski Tartt (S) Jimmy Ward (S) 49ers Cornerbacks *This is a decent matchup to start or stream 49ers corners, preferably Moseley & Sherman* Dre Greenlaw (LB) Arik Armstead (DT)
Tier three starts: Solomon Thomas (DE) Dee Ford (EDGE)
Sits: All others
Germaine Pratt will have his time to shine this week after Preston Brown was airlocked by the Bengals earlier this week.
Bengals @ Raiders
Cincinnati Bengals
Tier one starts: Shawn Williams (S) Jessie Bates (S) Nick Vigil (LB)
Tier two starts: Sam Hubbard (DE) Geno Atkins (DT) Carlos Dunlap (DE) Germaine Pratt (LB) Bengals Cornerbacks *This is a decent matchup to start or stream Bengals corners, preferably Webb & Dennard*
Tier three starts: Carl Lawson (DE)
Sits: Preston Brown (LB) *Released*
Oakland Raiders
Tier one starts: Tahir Whitehead (LB)
Tier two starts: Eric Harris (S) Nicholas Morrow (LB) Raiders Cornerbacks *This is a decent matchup to start or stream Raiders corners, preferably Worley & Mullen* Maxx Crosby (DE) Clelin Ferrell (DE)
Tier three starts: Lamarcus Joyner (S) DJ Swearinger (S) Jonathan Hankins (DT) Maurice Hurst (DT)
Sits: Karl Joseph (S) *Injured and out* All others
Jamie Collins groans in pain as the popeyes induced bubble guts kicks in during a game.
Patriots @ Eagles
New England Patriots
Tier one starts: Jamie Collins (LB)
Tier two starts: Kyle Van Noy (LB) Devin McCourty (S)Patriots Cornerbacks *This is a good matchup to start or stream Pats corners, preferably Gilmore then McCourty*
Tier three starts: Patriots pass rush (Simon, Guy, Shelton, Winovich)
Sits: All others
Philadelphia Eagles
Tier one starts: Nathan Gerry (LB) or Nigel Bradham (LB) *Bradham if healthy, Gerry if not* Fletcher Cox (DT)
Tier two starts: Rodney McLeod (S) Malcolm Jenkins (S) Derek Barnett (DE) Brandon Graham (DE) Patriots Cornerbacks *This is a good matchup to start or stream Eagles corners, preferably Mills & Darby*
Tier three starts: Kamu Grugier-Hill (LB)
Sits: All others
Khalil Mack will ensure Goff has a puckered booty hole this week.
Bears @ Rams
Chicago Bears
Tier one starts: Roquan Smith (LB) Khalil Mack (EDGE)
Tier two starts: Eddie Jackson (S) Bears Cornerbacks *This is a good matchup to start or stream Bears corners, preferably Fuller & Amukamara* Nick Kwiatkowski (LB)
Tier three starts: Ha Ha Clinton Dix (S) Leonard Floyd (EDGE) Roy Robertson Harris (DT)
Sits: Danny Trevethan (LB) *Injured and out* All others
Los Angeles Rams
Tier one starts: Cory Littleton (LB) Taylor Rapp (S) Aaron Donald (DT)
Tier two starts: Micheal Brockers (DE) Clay Matthews (EDGE) Dante Fowler (EDGE)
Tier three starts: Rams Cornerbacks *This is just an OK matchup to start or stream Rams corners, preferably Ramsey & Hill* Eric Weddle (S) Marqui Christian (S)
Sits: All others
Frank Clark looks to keep his hot streak going this week against Lazer Face & the always underwhelming Chargers.
Chiefs @ Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs
Tier one starts: Chris Jones (DT) Frank Clark (DE)
Tier two starts: Tyrann Mathieu (S) Chiefs Cornerbacks *This is a good matchup to start or stream Chiefs corners, preferably Ward, Breeland & Fuller* Tanoh Kpassagnon (DE) Anthony Hitchens (LB)
Tier three starts: Juan Thornhill (S) Damien Wilson (LB) Daniel Sorensen (S)
Sits: Emmanuel Ogbah (DE) *Injured and out* All others, Reggie Ragland (LB) & Ben Niemann (LB) *Playing time for both*
Los Angeles Chargers
Tier one starts: Joey Bosa (DE) Chargers Cornerbacks *This is an ideal matchup to start or stream Chargers corners, preferably Heyward, Davis & King*
Tier two starts: Jaylen Watkins (S) or Adrian Phillips (S) *Phillips if active, Watkins if not* Drue Tranquil (LB) Thomas Davis (LB) Melvin Ingram (DE)
Tier three starts: Reyshawn Jenkins (S)
Sits: All others
***Please make sure to check the inactives that come out each Sunday before the games start to make sure your players aren’t a surprise inactive due to a surprise injury. Obviously, if I have any of these guys listed as a start of any kind and they are inactive DO NOT START THEM. This article is written usually days before the games and surprise injuries can and will happen, make sure you stay up to date to avoid getting a surprise zero in your lineup***
***These are only suggestions ultimately it’s your decision who you start or sit. If a player gets hurt or has a bad game it happens it’s part of the game and not the result of me using a voodoo doll with your fantasy team’s name on it. I wish you all nothing but the best and hope you win all your matchups this and every week. Take home that hardware.***
Keep an eye out for my instant reaction and defensive waivers article dropping during the week next week, likely Thursday morning. I’ll be covering all the production and playing time from every single IDP relevant player and giving you options for defensive waivers. We’ll go over the week’s results and make sure you are ahead of the curve for getting any of those surprise studs AKA Darius Leonard last year. The next week’s start or sit will drop next Saturday morning and the Thursday night games start or sit will be in Tweet form (@Orangeman3142). Also, make sure and catch our weekly podcast on all your podcatching sites dropping Tuesday night or Wednesday morning all season long. Idpguys.org will continue to be your one-stop-shop for all things IDP.
Thank you for reading and good luck in this week’s matchups. Make sure you’re following @IDP_Dude and @JoeythetoothIDP to make sure you’re covered from all angles in regards to waivers, starts and sits and general IDP information, the three of us handle the Lions share of the IDP writing here at the site.
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