The NFC North got interesting in 2023. The Detroit Lions captured their first-ever NFC North crown, (Yes you read that correctly. I had to check that data) and their first divisional title run since 1993. Since the creation of this division back in 2002, we’ve seen the other three teams being competitive this division also features The Packers with 12 NFC North titles, the Vikings with 5, and the Bears with 4. Here is a breakdown:

Chicago Bears IDP Outlook

Total Defense: 324.2 (12th)

Rushing Defense: 86.3 (1st)

Passing Defense: 237.8 (25th)

Okay, so this team did finish 7-10 but let’s be open-minded and look beyond that scope, as the team did have a 4-2 finish and faced major turmoil during the season. Backup QB play and trades mid-season on defense further stated that the play may have been erratic, but General Manager and front office approach has been pretty consistent. This team has taken a new approach under the new regime. Ryan Pace seems to have a pattern of moving down in drafts and stockpiling draft picks we may see that again this year as they have two first-round picks, so the latter one is conceivable. He’s going to need it as this team has notable position holes to fill.

Team needs:

1. Quarterback. Justin Fileds is now gone and this team is not only going to need a statical Leader to step up, but a real locker room presence to establish its identity.
2. Center. There was an odd musical chairs rotation of players like Lucas Patrick and Da Feeney here. If you do not know these names don’t worry I did not either. A starter is needed. Ryan Bates, known more as a depth piece for versatility between playing guard and center, was traded for and is the current penciled-in starter.
3. Defensive Line. What are we doing? With or without Yannick Ngakoue leaving it in free agency, the team had a huge weakness generating pressure. The DTs are good-ish but not elite, they clearly have another end to pair with Montez Sweat Don’t believe me. Read the below stats!

Defensive Line

The defense was suspect for the first half of the year, particularly at the defensive line.

Stats for you to know:

Week 1-8:  Bears’ pressure rate was 27.9% (which ranked 31st in NFL)

Week 9-18: Bears’ pressure rate was 34.3% (which ranked 34.3% 24th in NFL)

So the story is the arrival of Montez Sweat, an ascending player in IDP. Sweat is the only player in NFL history to lead two franchises in sacks the same season, the Bears with six and Commanders with 6.5.  He finished a career year with 12.5 sacks, earning himself a Pro Bowl selection. Expect more productivity as the team figures out its defensive line in 2024.

There truly is more to this story before Sweat appeared there was no run support and this team was second worst against the run. With the help of Andrew Billings, this unit ended up being the top against the run by the end of the season. Still, this team clearly needs another DE. There are plenty of rookies at DL that they could take with their 2nd pick that are considered elite.

The returning players of significance are the aforementioned Sweat and Billing. The rest of these players can be shifted around but penciled in starters for now are Dexter Gervon Sr., who was a second-round pick last season and known for his tackling. Journeyman hybrid DL/LB DeMarcus Walker works best as a backup. Justin Jones signing with the Cardinals hurts in free agency so expect this team to draft a rookie, this draft class is deep at DL so will be interested to see who lands here.

Linebackers

This can be considered one of the strengths of this team.

T.J. Edwards is still kind of slept on in some IDP circles, which simply amazes me, he just keeps on contributing stats and continues to prove his worth as the league’s top tackler with 155 total tackles.

Blink and you may have missed a slump season out of Tremaine Edmunds. I know you don’t want to believe that because you might have heard “good value in your league for drafting him at his current ADP” but I hear that too. It’s true another season has passed and Edmunds injuries in last year’s training camp bleed over into the regular season. He did make four interceptions but needs to be better against the run for this unit to succeed again. I am not a fan but you could always hide a LB2 into coverage again, but he was a liability regardless of what your friends say.

Jack Sanborn filled in remarkably in his part-time role. Let’s go back to just two seasons ago, when he was IDP stud where he had 59 tackles and 48 solo. In best ball drafts he is the perfect last-round stash.

Penciled in-depth/ backups worth noting: Noah Sewell and Micah Baskerville can be special teams players for now but have good closing speed to help make tackles if called upon. Particularly Sewell, who forced a fumble in week two hopefully he could get more snaps in rotation moving forward.

Defensive Backs

The big free agent news here is the arrival of All-Pro Saftey Kevin Byard and as I tweeted about this is pretty telling:

Bears team scheme under head coach Matt Eberflus in two seasons asks two things out of its secondary: To tackle well and take the ball away. Enter Byard who checks both boxes with a strong 6.8% missed tackle rate (note Eddie Jackson was 14.5%)  and 28 career interceptions in nine seasons. He enters a young but very good squad and his presence will help this unit grow.

Jaquan Brisker is a dog and a top IDP asset. He will be a young leader on this team for years to come.

Jaylon Johnson‘s work ethic made him an All-Pro-bowl player selection, with four interceptions as well as a reputation of being a shadow corner in real football too.

Tyrique Stevenson‘s rookie campaign also landed him four interceptions as well, with 16 pass breakups.

Kyler Gordon is expected to play NB in year three as he did last season as he was outstanding in this new role despite early season setbacks. This is a much-needed change as he was expected to play all over in his rookie season. He should be valuable in IDP with this new role, as he played the first month of last year with a broken hand so expect much improvement in his stat line.

Penciled in depth: Jonathan Owens leads these names as an up-down player who is buried on the depth chart now. Jaylon Jones can be beat deep and he’ll have to improve on that. He is more of a special team player for now with 355 ST snaps. He did have seven solos tackles something to keep an eye on. This team has an excellent assortment of young cornerbacks and an ascending secondary that shows promise. The Bears also signed Jonathan Owens away from the Packers for some nickel looks.

Summary: This team may need another year to compete against the big guns in the NFC North, but with solid pieces on the LB and DB should be able to contend and close out games.

Green Bay Packers IDP Outlook

Total Defense 335 (17th)

Rushing Defense  128.3 (28th)

Passing Defense 206.8 (9th)

As this offense stole headlines and continued to improve, the Defense was mostly underwhelming and became the scapegoat. The defense wasn’t that bad, particularly in the secondary, but its penchant to get run on and in ability to generate turnovers resulted in defensive coordinator Joe Barry being fired a few days after the Divisional playoff loss to the 49ers. Enter Jeff Hatley, who will likely change this team from a 3-4 to a 4-3.

It’s my opinion, because Hatley has a career history habit of deploying four-man fronts in either cover-one or cover-three schemes (as opposed to his predecessor Barry would try to run five) Therefore, don’t expect the team scheme to affect the linebacker much. What’s unique about Hatley is not his schemes but the relationship he has with staff and players; he has ties to this coaching staff with his time in San Fransico but more importantly ties to one player in particular.

Did you know, that Hatley and Isaiah McDuffie worked together at Boston College in 2021? This is where McDuffie had his 2nd team all-ACC honor, and was 5th in the nation with 107 tackles. Not to mention a live televised game, where he went off against Notre Dame with 16 tackles. He’ll hope to unlock all these linebackers’ potential as well as generate more turnovers if this unit is going to be successful in 2024.

Team needs:

1. Tackle seems to be an obvious one. The Packers released injury riddle David Bakhtari and hope to reload here. Zach Tom won the job in the preseason and could be a developmental future player. At left tackle, backup Rasheed Walker filled in admirably but they are going to need more than this to keep the high-powered offense humming.
2. Cornerback seems to be an issue too. Trying to find a tandem opposite of Jaire Alexander (who generally lines up on the left CB spot) is critical as well as a solid NB as well. Eric Stokes is out for IR, Carrington Valentine, iffy all season, and Keisean Nixon (serves as KR more than cover) could use help.
   
3. Guard depth can pop up and be an issue too with Jon Runyan now a free agent. They are pretty line, particularly at left guard.

Defensive Line

In three games this last season this unit got gashed. There were four games where the defense gave up 200+ rushing yards to their opponent. Blame the unit below for lack of gap integrity and their personal woes.

Kenny Clark made a Pro Bowl and led the team in Sacks. I bet you did not expect that with all the other big names this team has here at the pass rush. Clark can play the one-tech, nose tackle, or his preferred three-tech and excels at all of them, a steady example of what a superior pass rush from the interior would look like, you’ll see his name amongst the top in QB Hits each season.

Slayton and Wyatt can be summed up as having inconsistent years but that may be good news for the emergence of Karl Brooks, who showcased he could be a good pass rusher but still struggled to help with run support.

Linebacker

The news here is De’Vondre Campbell was released leaving Quay Walker LB1 benifacto and the weakside linebacker starter here. Walker did have a strong first half of the season, with 65 tackles by week eight, but only ended up finishing with only 118 tackles compared to his 121 rookie season performance.

McDuffie, as mentioned above the off-ball linebacker played with Jeff Hafley at Boston College, but there is more here. McDuffie filled in for either Walker or Campbell as each one often ended up injured every other week resulting in playing 46.17% of the defensive snaps last year, compare that to De’Vondre Campbell’s 51.76% mark and this team may have itself its LB2.

The other inside guy here is recently re-signed Eric Wilson (known for recovering a key fumble in the division playoff versus 49ers but that’s about it) is really used for special teams and Christain Young is a converted safety,  so the team could use a nice depth piece.

The outside linebackers just may be the cream of this crop in regards to this defensive unit.

Rashan Gary finished with nine sacks and 22 QB hits, 2 FF and recoveries, and over 44 tackles. This is a step in the right direction given that early in the year the instructions were to go slow on a limited pitch count.

Preston Smith is the overlooked yet most consistent of the three outside linebackers. With eight sacks, 21 QB Hits, and  48 tackles. His pass-rush win rate was a decent 11.5.

Lukas Van Ness started showing signs of life as the season winded down. The 21-year-old number 13 overall pick, had four sacks, seven QB hits, and 18 tackles, after Thanksgiving weekend and continued to excel into the playoffs thus showcasing his potential for the 2024 season.

Defensive Back

Free agent signing Xavier McKinney comes to this squad who needed him in a big way. Only 25 years old, he has already proven to be versatile playing 388 box snaps and 167 in the slot. He should be moved around and a strong IDP weapon in 2024.

At the time of the writing, the only other possible starter is Anthony Johnson Jr, who did play 27% of the team snaps last season so perhaps that is the plan for now. Note: There are two Anthony Johnsons on this team (the other is a CB) so if you guys are looking at tweaking your rosters make sure you pick up the one with jersey #36 because both our labeled DBS.

At cornerback, it is Jaire Alexanders and everyone else.  Alexander is a top elite corner who could do it all, but injuries shorten his season.

Keisean Nixon was a first-team all-pro at kick returner and may be better suited there. He gave up the most yards in coverage.

Eric Stokes was a disaster only appearing in two games, and could not cover. Corey Balentine showed promise in zone coverage but needs work in man. Other Anthony Johnson is just a depth piece and possibly a doppelganger. Nothing to see here.

This will have to be a position they target on draft day as this IDP class is deep at CB.

Summary:

If this team could tighten up on defense it’s shaping up to be an impressive roster and could be right there with the best of them in the NFC.

Minnesota Vikings IDP Outlook

Total Defense: 333.2 (16th)

Rushing Defense 98.7 (8th)

Passing Defense 234.5 (24th)

Brian Flores came to Minnesota and introduced the most blitz-tactic schemes the league saw in ’23. Blitzing nearly 48% of the time and achieving 60 hurries and 43 sacks along the way the Vikings outplayed their record (Kirk Cousins got hurt and suffered a carrousel at QB) but came up short in their quest to get into the playoffs.

Team needs:

1. Quarterback. At the time of this writing, the Vikings recently traded up in the NFL Draft, virtually assuring them a chance at one of the top four rookie play callers. Will it be enough? Last season was proof that the heir-apparent to Cousins was not on this depth chart and no way is Sam Darnold any team’s answer.
2. Guard. No one on the offensive line made it without injuries. It was a brutal year for both guard and tackle. I went guard here simply because Dalton Risner left in free agency, and Ed Ingram struggled plenty. Blake Blandel is some guy starting here.
3. Cornerback. The unit has some depth but as a group, they ranked 24th per PFF. With this draft class having excellent prospects with elite tangibles I think we could improve here.

Defensive Line

This is not a very good unit and could use help in the draft. It did however help stop the run so isn’t as bad as I would have imagined.

Harrison Phillips started every game and finished with 92 tackles. He is an example of just how deep and why you could wait on DT in your drafts recently.

Linebacker

This is a tricky one as both D.J. Wonnum (#2 In sacks) and Danielle Hunter bother left in free agency.

The first replacement is Jonathan Greenard, who is a younger replacement and going to play the Danielle Hunter role. Last season he had 12.5 sacks and 15 TFLS but he got to do that playing the opposite side of rookie of the year Will Anderson. He will be put to the test to see if he could be DE1 here.

The other replacement is Andrew Van Ginkel who was an on-again, off-again starter with the Dolphins. They should have kept playing him as he produced six sacks, 19 QB hits, and eight TFLs. Both he and Greenard are regarded as excellent run defenders. Van Ginkel had previous work history with Flores when he was a head coach, so I would think the familiarity with the hybrid pass rusher should work well here.

Blake Cashman joined Greenard from the Texans, where he had 106 tackles. Cashman has always been profiled as a good player, but injuries in his early years with the Jets made him an afterthought until last season’s emergence.

Ivan Pace Jr. was an impressive find. An undrafted rookie, he was spotted early last season playing with the green dot in pre-season. He was able to pick up the playbook fast, cover down for an injured Jordan Hicks and continue to play even on his return.

Another depth piece on this team of note is Jihad Ward, who showed flashes as a pass rusher. Brain Asamoah hasn’t quite put it together and got overshadowed early in his career. Andre Carter II was a part of the rookie class last season and watched his draft stock slowly fall apart pre-combine.

Defensive Back

This is a fun room as all these guys are excellent and excel at the roles they will play.

Summary:

With the potential of nursing a rookie Quarterback or Sam Darnold as your team’s Quarterback, not to mention a 29-year-old starting running back, I am expecting more of the same record for this season. But the good news is for IDP expect many big plays and more snap counts because of those mistakes.

Detroit Lions IDP Outlook

Defensive Line

Aidan Hutchinson was 2nd in the NFL in pressure with 101 pressures, he only ended with 11.5 indicating he needs more help so teams can’t shift to his side.

The other DL starter could appear in the group of Marcus Devenport, Johns Comisky, or Josh Pascal. I’m giving the edge to Marcus Devenport and underachievable with the Vikings, but posted big games with the Saints. That and the fact that this team was happy with the other two they had here. Penciled in-depth starters: Both Comisky and Pascal have shown flashes.

Alim McNeill as a defensive tackle became the team’s second-best pass rusher. He will be joined by DJ Reeder to form a solid interior in the middle of the field. Reeder gets high praise as a run stuffer and can pass rush just doesn’t possess the speed to always get there.

Linebacker

Alex Anzalone has become a pretty darn good linebacker despite people always criticizing him, improving each season.

Jack Campbell was praised as the top IDP rookie last season, and perhaps was overdrafted both in NFL Draft and our leagues so now is the time for him to leap in year 2.

Derrick Barnes looked the part in training camp and returns to the same role this season.

Pencile in-depth chart: Malcolm Rodriguez known as “Rodrigo” is a crowd favorite and has been taking reps at fullback, while Jalen Reeves-Maybin has served well on specialty teams making this a deep positional group.

Defensive Backs

Outside cornerback is where this team could have been had last season. Then also the running at the corners. They fixed two needs with the trade for Carlton Davis who excels at both tackling and covering top wideouts.

Amik Robertson is also a known cornerback who plays with high intensity and physicality despite being smaller at 5’9. Both are improvements in what they have.

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