Before we look forward to the 2023 season, let’s look back at the 2022 IDP Guys Autism Awareness Invitational average draft position for lessons to take into next season.
Welcome back to the fantasy football off-season! A time when we obsess over incoming rookies, join too many dynasty start-ups and argue about projections for the 2023 season. Before doing all that, let’s look back at the 2022 IDP Guys Autism Awareness Invitational average draft position for lessons for next season.
The 2022 IDP invitational had 144 teams, the highest number in the three years of the tournament. As good Average Draft Position (ADP) information for Defensive Players is very difficult to find, the ADP from the tournament’s 12 divisions was collected to get a snapshot of the redraft market right before the season started.
If you are reading this and did not play in the IDP Invitational, it is a league with 11 offensive and IDP spots with a short bench. There is still something to take away from other leagues here. However, it is a great tournament for a great cause. Click here to sign up for the 2023 Invitational.
A Housekeeping Note on Charts
If you have read either of the previous articles summarizing the IDP Invitational, you will notice two changes to the charts this year. First, I’ve added player names to charts where I’ve shown a single position.
Second, I’ve changed the trend lines from logarithmic to polynomial, which I think better represents the data. I hope that this shows ideal pockets for drafting certain positions better.
What We Missed Completely
Every year several undrafted players achieve high finishes in the IDP Invitational. Here are the number of players who went undrafted in the majority of the divisions but went on to have a seasonal finish that would have made them a ‘starter’:
- Quarterback – 3 of the top 24 (13%)
- Running Back – 4 of the top 36 (11%)
- Wide Receiver – 5 of the top 48 (10%)
- Tight End – 0 of the top 12 (0%)
- Defensive End – 6 of the top 24 (25%)
- Defensive Tackle – 3 of the top 12 (25%)
- Linebacker – 3 of the top 36 (8%)
- Safety – 19 of the top 36 (53%) and all top 5 finishers
- Cornerback – 7 of the top 12 (58%)
A measure of how good the drafters were, these numbers are pretty similar to last year – except at Safety. In 2021 the drafters missed eight of the top 36 Safties. This year that number doubled.
Only Jenkins was drafted from the top five finishers at the position – Jalen Pitre, Julian Love, Rayshawn Jenkins, Talanoa Hufanga, and Donovan Wilson. Jenkins appeared in three of the 12 division drafts and never before round 28.
The list above and the charts below give a rough guide of which positions are worth prioritizing in drafts and which positions are more likely to have helpful waiver options during the season.
Quarterback
After a 2021 season that saw the majority of high quarterback finishes come from the top players selected, quarterback ADP continued to rise, with most of the elite options picked in the first round. This year saw a few later picks emerge as solid options, with Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Jared Goff, and Daniel Jones all turning in respectable fantasy seasons.
Running Back
I haven’t displayed the correlation coefficient on any of these charts. Still, it is worth noting that the correlation coefficients are much higher for offensive positions than for defensive positions. Drafters are better, or the offensive positions are easier to get right.
After pick 45 or so, the running backs all scored about the same, with players like Travis Etienne, James Connor, and Leonard Fournette scoring very similarly to players like Miles Sanders, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Tony Pollard, who were drafted 60 picks later.
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver has a trend line that looks very similar to Running Back with a plateau around pick 120. However, wide receiver had a more gradual decline through picks 45 to 75, where players like Jalen Waddle and Amon-Ra St. Brown were taken.
A review of each position wouldn’t be complete without looking at running back and wide receiver together:
Usually, there is a range between the early and middle rounds where wide receivers score more points than running backs. That area is typically called the “running back dead zone.” The same thing happened in 2022. However, the gap is much narrower.
Josh Jacobs emerged from the dead zone to an RB2 finish and helped pull the running back trend line upward. But look at the cluster of wide receivers between picks 60 and 100 who scored more than 200 points. This pattern has been consistent each of the last three years.
Tight End
Not much to say here that hasn’t been said elsewhere. In 2022, you either had Travis Kelce or you had a problem at the tight end position.
Defensive End
T.J. Watt was drafted way ahead of any of his peers. The fourth defensive end drafted had an ADP seven and a half rounds after Watt. While Watt was injured and missed part of the year, the next two players drafted, Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett, both had great seasons.
As the DE7 by ADP, Aidan Hutchinson was ambitious for a rookie but not unprecedented. Chase Young had a top-five ADP at his position in the 2020 Invitational. Rookie defensive ends can have good seasons, but it is rare.
Defensive Tackle
Two interesting things happened at defensive tackle this year. First, Aaron Donald was injured and did not have the dominant season we are used to. Second, the rest of the defensive tackle group had one of the best years of the last decade.
I suspect we will head into drafts next summer with defensive tackle being “the deepest it has ever been.” That should pull Aaron Donald‘s ADP back to the rest of the position group.
Linebacker
Everyone above the 250-point line finished as LB17 or better. Drafters did a good job of picking good players when linebackers started getting drafted, but several gems slid to the end of the draft.
Players who didn’t score well were either injured or were guesses at players who might have full-time roles.
A note on Micah Parsons — he had a great year and will get votes for DPoY. However, the scoring does not benefit pass-rushing linebackers, making it impossible to Parsons to pay off at his draft position.
Because linebackers score so much better than defensive ends in the Invitational, you might think it’s better to draft them first. This year, the trendlines were closest where the top defensive ends were drafted.
Safety
With half of the top 36 safeties going undrafted, there isn’t much to learn from this year’s safety chart. The flatness of safety, with high finishers drafted late, is common between all three years of the Invitational.
Cornerback
With only one starting cornerback required, there is very little leverage to gain drafting a cornerback highly in the Invitational.
Kenny Moore was drafted three rounds ahead of any other cornerback after his #1 cornerback finish in 2021. Like Marlon Humphrey before him, Kenny Moore failed to meet the expectations of his ADP. Please refer to this chart when considering spending a draft pick in the 12th round on L’Jarius Sneed this summer.
Chauncy Gardner-Johnson was pacing as the #1 cornerback before missing five games at the end of the season. However, he will almost certainly be reclassified to his true safety position in 2023.
Thank you for reading my review of the 2022 IDP Guys Autism Awareness Invitational average draft position. You can find my other articles on my IDP Guys author page and me on Twitter @djkelltown.
