Two wide receivers who were once teammates, and are now fellow first-round NFL draft picks, are part of my “great” wide receiver prospect tier.
Without diving too far into the specifics my prospect grading model looks into, 16 factors are weighted and applied differently based on their correlation to fantasy success. This article reviews Garrett Wilson and Jameson Williams.
Each factor is a mere piece to the prospect puzzle — no one single metric is the “secret sauce” for finding wide receivers. With this in mind, the metrics’ weighting is done so that just one metric will not make or break a prospect.
Some of the main factors/metrics:
- Draft Capital – what round?
- Declare Year – Did they opt for the draft or return for their senior season?
- Dominator – do they clear my minimum threshold?
- Yards Dominator – do they clear my minimum threshold?
- Measurables – height/weight/BMI
- Film score – outsourced from Lance Zierlein NFL.com
- Y/RR – yards per route run
- YAC/R – yards after catch per reception
What Does the Grade Mean?
The numeric grade for the prospects is used to designate their prospect tier (Elite, Great, Toss-Up, or Diamond Diving).
Once placed into a tier, the specific “grade” number becomes irrelevant — I do not recommend using it to rank within tiers. By this, I mean that an example of prospect A scoring higher than prospect B within the same tier does not necessarily mean A > B.
By comparing across multiple prospect classes we can get a better idea of what the odds of a new prospect’s success are vs just looking at this one class.
As shown above, there is a pretty significant hit rate difference between the tiers which is helpful for drafting future wideouts.
Great Rookie Wide Receiver Prospects
- 2018: Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Courtland Sutton
- 2019: D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel
- 2020: Justin Jefferson, Brandon Aiyuk, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy
- 2021: Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore, DeVonta Smith
- Now: Garrett Wilson and Jameson Williams
If your dynasty team’s receiving core comprises a chunk of these prospects, you are probably pretty darn happy about your future outlook.
Targeting prospects that fall into this tier is just good business! Based on KeepTradeCut.com consensus ranks in March ’22:
- 33% valued top-12 WRs
- 58% valued top-24 WRs
- 100% valued top-50
You should feel very confident when selecting one of these two ’22 prospects. They will certainly have a place in your starting line-up soon and should be well valued for years!
Important Factors/Metrics
- Draft Capital – Wilson (first round) Williams (first round)
- Declare Year – Wilson (Junior) Williams (Junior)
- Dominator (29+ min) – Wilson (29.4%) Williams (31.1%)
- Yards Dominator (20+ min) – Wilson (34.46%) Williams (30.84%)
- Y/RR (2.5+ min) – Peak: Wilson (3.04) Williams (3.12)
- Career (2.5+ min): Wilson (2.73) Williams (2.51)
These guys shine in just about every aspect I look at. Wilson and Williams’ profiles are VERY complete.
Playing at Ohio State and Alabama, these thresholds were met playing against some of the premier talents CFB had to offer. Also to note, these programs have had INCREDIBLE WR cores over the last few years so competition for looks was stiff and they still made it!
What Does the Tape Show?
I do not claim to have an eye for film grading myself, but I think there is excellent value in film evaluation! Instead of trusting my untrained eye, I outsourced this part to Lance Zierlein over at NFL.com. He has been doing this for many years with a solid track record of success.
Zierlein graded Garrett Wilson at a 6.5 (tied for the top of the class) and Jameson Williams a 6.48 (third) and described them:
Garrett Wilson:
- Deceptive speed seems to surprise single coverage.
- Instant acceleration creates his “plays fast” profile.
- Good hand extension to pluck throws away from his frame.
- Hands are instinctive, sudden, and strong.
- Play strength to fight through route pressure and get back on track.
Jameson Williams:
- Smooth route take-off with instant gas.
- Able to eviscerate the cushion and blow by corners.
- Separation feels inevitable in long-form patterns.
- Plays with sudden hands to stab and secure high throws.
- Good YAC stack when catching on the move.
Nitpicking Their Profiles
These two players check so many boxes. How are they not “elite” prospects!?!?!?!?!?
Wilson:
Though he is certainly no slouch, Wilson was good, not great, in the YAC department. Wilson added six yards after the catch per reception during his best season at Ohio St.
With his great acceleration and punt return experience, this is an area I would’ve expected a bit more. Though not a “small” WR, I think a little more size on his 6′ frame would go a long way here.
Williams:
No YAC/R qualms here! Despite his lanky stature, Jameson Williams ripped off a near top of class 9.3 yards after the catch per reception.
This stature, though, is one of my concerns for Williams. Being light at 179 lbs is one thing, but adding his 6’2″ height stretches him pretty thin. I worry that this combination could lead to struggles with press coverage and getting thrown off routes by physical corners more often than desired.
I do think Williams’ game-breaking speed will be enough to keep DBs honest, but remember, nitpicking here. Another nit-pick — Williams had trouble getting looks in the crowded WR room at Ohio state his first two seasons. He was able to transfer to Alabama and breakout immediately but needing to transfer out to do so does raise a slight red flag for me.
Landing Spot
The landing spot is among the least of my worries at wide receiver. When negative, I will ALWAYS still draft talent over situation at the position.
These landing spots, New York Jets for Wilson and Detroit Lions for Jameson Williams, are no different. Despite how poorly these two organizations have performed over the past decade, I have ZERO worries on this front. Situations change quickly and talent will always win out.
I do like a lot of what these two organizations are doing on the offensive side of the ball and think these WRs are great fits for their teams.
NY Jets
- Young, high passing ceiling quarterback prospect in Zach Wilson
- Emphasis on the offensive line (gives the Wilson duo time for routes to develop)
- RB talent defenses will need to respect (Breece Hall & Michael Carter)
- Other WR talent to draw coverages (Elijah Moore & Corey Davis)
Detroit Lions
- Jared Goff – capable of supporting multiple WRs in the right scheme (two ’23 1st round picks if he needs to be replaced)
- Emphasis on the offensive line (gives Williams time for deep routes to develop)
- RB talent defenses need to respect (D’Andre Swift & Jamaal Williams)
- Other WR talent to draw coverages (Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark, and a special shout-out to TE T.J. Hockenson as well)
Where do I pick Garrett Wilson and Jameson Williams?
Garrett Wilson
There was a time this off-season when Wilson was touted as some analyst’s WR1. For the most part, those takes seem to have cooled, now I am seeing Wilson ranked anywhere from 2 to 5 typically after landing spots.
Garrett Wilson is locked in as my WR2, and I think you should look to get him any time 1.03 or later!
Jameson Williams
Williams had the best CFB season of them all in my opinion. His ADP has the widest range I’ve seen with some folks standing by Williams as the best wideout of this class and others letting him fall to pick 1.10.
I fall somewhere in the middle, I like Williams as the WR3 of the class and will begin selecting him around the 1.04/1.05 spots.
For dynasty start-ups, if in need of some youth take a look for these WRs Wilson and Williams right around the area of Mike Evans and Keenan Allen.
Honorable mention to Skyy Moore and Drake London who were both within .10 points of hitting this tier and will head my next tier!
Thank you for the read! You can find all of my articles on my IDP Guys author page. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter at @DynastyBison and follow @IDPGuys to keep up to date!
