It is mock draft season! The date to declare for the 2024 draft has passed as has the Divisional round of the playoffs. Draft season is my favorite season (well.. Christmas tops the list, but this is up there!) and I am excited to share my first official first-round NFL mock draft with the IDP+ community!
I put a lot of work into my first-round mock drafts, but they are a fickle beast, especially this early. This early, my mocks will follow more what I would do as GM than anything else. With that said, there will be some points where I follow trends (starting at number 1) or what seem like potential “fits”. My scouting is not yet complete, so there will be changes in future versions. For now, here is my first-round 2024 NFL mock draft, hope you enjoy it!!
1.01: Chicago Bears – Caleb Williams, QB, USC
This is not true to my board (Drake Maye is my QB1) but all signs point to Williams being the pick here. If Maye had returned to school, Williams would have my highest QB grade I have given out (since the 2019 draft). Having a solid-to-good offensive line should help him to ad-lib less, lowering his variance and increasing consistency.
1.02: Washington Commanders – Drake Maye, QB, UNC
Here is my top QB, giving the Washington Football team their franchise hope for the first time in years. He is comparable to Trevor Lawrence but with better arm talent. Maye dragged his team to relevance, and a great WR room hopefully lowers his need for hero-ball.
1.03: New England Patriots – Marvin Harrison Jr, WR, Ohio State
The top overall player in the class lasts till the 3rd pick. This pick comes down to MHJ, Jayden Daniels, or whoever the Patriots’ brass sees as OT1 (Fashanu or Alt). Any of the four names make sense, so I go with my board and take the best player. Building out the offense before adding a QB is my preferred build style. This allows the team to maximize the rookie QB contract and help ease their development.
1.04: Arizona Cardinals – Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The trail of generational prospects continues! The Cardinals need WR help, but getting another top-10 bookend tackle to pair with Parris Johnson Jr. would set this team up spectacularly. Fashanu is my OT1 due to his pass protection polish and upside. In two years Arizona goes from a bottom-3 OL to a top-10 one with two young stars.
1.05: Los Angeles Chargers – Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
This is my toughest call so far. Fashanu, Alt, Nabers, Bowers, Arnold, and Wiggins all make sense here. However, I go with my 2nd WR (by a hair over Nabers) who will give the Chargers a much-needed vertical and big-body threat. Superstar QB Justin Herbert has put up absurd numbers with Mike Williams, and Odunze is that sort of player, plus the intangibles, route running, blocking, and tenacity of a Chris Godwin. Odunze is not as electric as the next name, but does have YAC juice and can make defenders miss.
Check out more of our 2024 NFL Draft Content:
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft | Top 10 Picks – By Matt Record
The IDP Saga of the Third-Round Linebacker: Buyers Beware by David Kelly
- Fantasy Football 2024 Mock Draft Breakdown: Expert Picks & Analysis by Offensive Points Podcast
1.06: New York Giants – Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
This was another tough one. I have 0 faith in Daniel Jones (even before his injury), but they have no talent on the offense as of now (Saquon Barkley is a free agent). I believe in building the offense and then going and getting your QB, so getting an elite WR prospect helps there. Nabers is a great receiver in all the traditional senses while being a YAC monster. His skill set will keep him relevant and producing even with poor QB play, like a bigger and better Garrett Wilson.
1.07: Tennessee Titans – Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Alt is seen by many as OT1 in this class, it is really a coin flip for me. Alt fills in at LT next to rookie phenom Peter Skoronski, building up a formerly atrocious offensive line, like Arizona is doing. A rock-solid left side of the OL will do wonders for Will Levis, to see if he is the future.
1.08: Atlanta Falcons – Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Here he is! I expect Daniels to go higher, but with no trades, he falls to Atlanta. This would be a great fit with their offensive weapons and Daniels could be onboarded easily. He is dynamic as a passer and runner while being safe with the ball.
1.09: Chicago Bears – Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
The first defender off this first-round mock draft’s board is an Alabama EDGE for the second straight year. Turner is not Will Anderson, but is the highest-upside rusher in this class. He brings lightning to Montez Sweat’s thunder. In 6 months the Bears go from no edge threats to having a potential top-5 pairing.
1.10: New York Jets – JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Brock Bowers is tempting, as the highest-rated player on my board, but the Jets need to keep Aaron Rodgers upright. Latham is a nasty blocker, but good in pass pro as well.
1.11: Minnesota Vikings – Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Verse struggled early this season, but turned it on late and showed why he was in top-10 consideration last season. He is a powerful rusher who will take over for (likely) departing Danielle Hunter.
1.12: Denver Broncos – Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
1.13: Las Vegas Raiders – Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Pairing my top 2 corners together here. The duo is a coin flip, but I opted to pair Arnold with another former Alabama corner in Patrick Surtain II because I find that fun (draft gurus Dane Brugler of the Athletic and Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com/Network mocking him there helps too). Both players are great athletes and have the full height-weight-speed combination with intangibles, though both will get over-aggressive at times. In a division with two top-3 QBs, the Broncos and Raiders need to upgrade their DB rooms.
Note: the one trade in this first-round mock draft involves the Raiders. Raiders trade 24-2 (2.44) and a conditional 25-3 (similar conditions as the recent Aaron Rodgers and Carson Wentz trades would make this a 2) to Chicago for QB Justin Fields.
1.14: New Orleans Saints – Taliese Fuaga, OT/OG, Oregon State
The Saints could go any number of directions here, EDGE, WR2, CB, etc but instead, we bolster their offensive line. Fuaga is a menacing run blocker – potentially the best in the entire class – and a solid pass blocker. He can be a very good tackle but can start on the inside while Ryan Ramczyk is still rostered and Trevor Penning is given more time to develop.
1.15: Indianapolis Colts – Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Do I expect Bowers to fall this far? No. Would I love it as a Colts fan? Absolutely! Bowers is TE1 in this class (maybe ever?) and a dynamic player. He should go in the top 8, but positional value may drop him here. Getting a top-tier weapon to pair with Michael Pittman Jr and Josh Downs would do wonders for Anthony Richardson, while Bowers’ blocking would help AR and Jonathan Taylor.
1.16: Seattle Seahawks – Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
If Seattle stays here, Murphy is a great fit. The undersized DT was a dominant rusher from the inside and is a freaky athlete. I would love to see them drop back and pick up hometown (University of Washington, not the real UW) OL Troy Fatanu. A QB is not an option for me, as Geno Smith is not an issue for them and any of the QBs remaining are a reach. Murphy is the top DT option due to his pass-rush prowess.
1.17: Jacksonville Jaguars – Cooper DeJean, CB/PR, Iowa
New DC Ryan Nielsen relies heavily on CBs in his scheme, so the Jaguars take the best one remaining. DeJean is an elite athlete and a great, though aggressive cover man. He is able to play anywhere in the back 7, which will appeal to any DC and make him a great, sneaky IDP pick.
1.18: Cincinnati Bengals – Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
With Tee Higgins likely gone (they go elsewhere if he returns), the Bengals take another LSU receiver to complement Ja’Marr Chase. Thomas is a big-time, big-play athlete. He profiles similarly to the Greek god DK Metcalf (though maybe is Jupiter to Metcalf’s Zeus.. that one is for you, fellow Percy Jackson and the Olympians fans!) as he is a bit smaller.
1.19: Los Angeles Rams – Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
The first (and only in this mock) G5 player to go is one of my favorites in the class. Mitchell was a dominant corner during his time at Toledo, only getting better throughout his career. He should also test spectacularly at the Combine/Pro Day. The Rams DB room is rough, so Mitchell should see time immediately.
1.20: Pittsburgh Steelers – Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Steelers double-dip with one-year starters at tackle for the Bulldogs. Mims will lock down the right side of the Steelers’ line, as Jones slides back to left tackle. Pittsburgh becomes the third team in this mock to have two first-round studs in back-to-back drafts. The expectation is that the Steelers add a veteran to compete with (start over) Kenny Pickett, so QB is not a plan here.
1.21: Miami Dolphins – Jackson Powers-Johnson, iOL, Oregon
The Dolphins are expected to lose multiple starters along the interior in free agency and already were weak there. JPJ has started at center and right guard in college, giving some versatility in Mike McDaniel’s scheme, though he fits best in the middle. Big boost for the run-and-pass games!
1.22: Philadelphia Eagles – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
The Eagles CBs are old and injured, so they take the best on the board. He may not be an immediate starter (unless James Bradberry moves to the slot full-time) but has NFL tools and instincts.
1.23: Houston Texans – Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
With Sheldon Rankins leaving and Maliek Collins a potential cap casualty, the Texans need help on the interior. Newton is great against the run and pass and is able to take games over. He is DT2 in the class but has the most upside if he fully hits.
1.24: Dallas Cowboys – Troy Fatanu, OT/OG, Washington
Fatanu played left tackle for the best offensive line in CFB, though does have the ability to play guard. Tyron Smith is a free agent and has been injury-prone, so having an heir is necessary. Having tackle/guard versatility allows them to play with All-Pro Tyler Smith’s position, keeping him at guard or moving him outside.
1.25: Green Bay Packers – Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Barton is the most versatile offensive lineman (maybe player) in the draft, as he projects to play all five positions up front. Barton helps the OL protect breakout star Jordan Love and upgrades the run game. He is a great fit for the Shanahan/LaFleur/McVay scheme.
1.26: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M
The clear LB1 in the class goes to Todd Bowles’s defense in Tampa Bay. He compares favorably to Ernest Jones, as a great blitzer (hey! Todd Bowles!) and heavy hitter. He is rangy and capable in coverage as well, though needs to improve consistency. This may be your IDP1 overall pick, with tackle and sack upside with Devin White and/or Lavonte David moving on.
1.27 Arizona Cardinals – Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Robison is a raw rusher but has a takeover ability on par with the top guys. His sack totals were less than ideal (similar to fellow PSU Alum Odafe Oweh), but the metrics and athletic profile are spectacular. Arizona needs a spark on defense, and Chop provides that.
1.28: Buffalo Bills – Keon Coleman, WR, FSU
The Bills get their guy who can catch Josh Allen’s majestic deep shots. With Gabriel Davis inconsistent, injury-prone, and a free agent they need another weapon. Add in the drama with Stefon Diggs, and they may need an alpha. Coleman is boom or bust, but his highs are immaculate, as a dominant ball winner with enough juice to be a returner.
Note: the remaining pick order in this first-round mock draft is determined by Vegas Odds for winning the Super Bowl
1.29: Detroit Lions – Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Latu is a prospect I am unsure of, with medical concerns and some limited athletic upside. He has massive production and quickness, which are adored tools, so I do expect him to be a top-20 pick in the end, just could not find a spot for him that I liked. The Lions need another difference maker up front, and even if Latu’s medicals are poor (he medically retired earlier in college), he is a worthwhile shot here.
1.30: Kansas City Chiefs – Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Mizzou
With L’Jarius Sneed a free agent this year, the Chiefs draft another physical corner to replace him (even if in 2025 Sneed is tagged). Rakestraw Jr could be in the upper tier of CBs without injury. He is strong against the run and physical in coverage. WR was in play, with Devontez Walker, Xavier Worthy, Troy Franklin, and Ja’Lynn Polk available, but getting a round 2 WR is a better bet than CB in this class.
1.31: Baltimore Ravens – Chris Braswell, EDGE, Alabama
Baltimore got amazing production from Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy this season, but that cannot be counted on again. They need another upside rusher to pair with Odafe Oweh. Braswell is an athletic freak who broke out this year.
1.32: San Francisco 49ers – Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The high-upside tackle would be a great pick for the 49ers, who have had struggles along the line. Trent Williams is due to miss a handful of games per year, and won’t play forever. Guyton has been a right tackle but has the athletic ability and upside to move over or inside.
While we are here, I figured I would go ahead and give my dynasty fantasy rankings for the players in the first-round mock draft! Those ranks are based on a Superflex, Half-PPR, Tight End Premium scoring for O, and balanced scoring on D.
- Drake Maye (WAS)
- Caleb Williams (CHI)
- Jayden Daniels (ATL)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. (NE)
- Rome Odunze (LAC)
- Brock Bowers (IND)
- Malik Nabers (NYG)
- Brian Thomas Jr. (CIN)
- Keon Coleman (BUF)
- Edgerrin Cooper (TB)
- Dallas Turner (CHI)
- Jared Verse (MIN)
- Laiatu Latu (DET)
- Chop Robinson (AZ)
- Byron Murphy II (SEA)
- Chris Braswell (BAL)
- Jer’Zhan Newton (HOU)
- Cooper DeJean (JAX)
- Terrion Arnold (DEN)
- Nate Wiggins (LV)
- Quinyon Mitchell (LAR)
- Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (KC)
- Kool-Aid McKinstry (PHI)
Thank you so much for reading my first-round mock draft article! There is a lot of work to be done still, with the Shrine Game, Senior Bowl, Combine, Pro days, and the Draft itself. A lot may change as more scouting and rumors are done and heard. Please reach out if you have any comments, I would love to have a respectful, fun conversation! You can find my other work on the IDP Guys Author Page, and feel free to reach out to me directly @JoeLow63 on X, where you can also find and follow @IDPGuys!
