It’s that time of year when fantasy owners are reading up on the new crop of incoming rookies. For redraft leagues, you’re looking for immediate impact but in dynasty leagues, you might be searching for a future replacement for one of your aging stars.
It’s not all about the first-round picks, but also about turning over rocks for those hidden gems, like De’Von Achane, Tank Dell, or the Josh Downs of the world.
We see it year after year, rookies can elevate your franchise to championships. What is the science though? How do you ensure the right pick is made? If not careful, you could set your franchise back years, or build a contender overnight. Let’s get into it!
Scouting Rookies
If your fantasy rookie draft is slated before the NFL draft, one key factor you’re not able to weigh in on is the rookies’ situations and paths to playing time. However, you can lock in on the two biggest events where players separate themselves from the rest. The Reese’s Senior Bowl and the NFL Combine.
The Senior Bowl is a prime opportunity to gauge players’ skill sets while matched up with the nation’s elite competition. This is an all-star bowl game but it’s also extremely competitive. MVPs of that game usually go on to major success at the pro level. We’ve watched past winners like Dak Prescott, Brandon Graham, Matt Forte, and even all-time greats like Dan Marino, win the award and go on to be some of the best players in the league,
A solid showing at the Senior Bowl is a good launching pad to NFL and fantasy football stardom. Aside from the game, you get an in-depth look at how players handle competition at their positions, how they take NFL-style coaching, as well as their practice habits. You want players who won’t shy away from competition and won’t consistently take plays off.
The NFL Scouting Combine always sees a handful of players skyrocket their value due to superior athletic testing results. Uber athletic kids who played at smaller schools and we might not be so familiar are allowed to shine. Wide receivers, running backs, defensive backs, and pass rushers all attract a lot of attention during this period. It also gives you a prime chance to see potential future signal callers perform under bright lights and scrutiny.
We want to see who runs the fastest 40-yard dash because speed kills. Additionally, we want to see pass catchers display their route-running abilities. Lastly, the rumors are entertaining. What franchises are watching which players? What are the teams’ biggest needs, and how does that player’s college system compare? Are they a student of the game? How much time would it take them to learn a more complex system?
Drafting Rookies After the NFL Draft
If your fantasy draft is after the NFL Draft, you have even more to work with and I think it’s beneficial to draft after the NFL draft and free agency so that we have the most information possible available.
Drafting after the NFL draft gives you a leg up on predicting potential playing time. You can gauge your pick’s path to seeing the field a lot easier. Talent is key, however, so is a good situation. You have to assess whether your player fits an immediate need or if they provide depth and security in the future of the position.
In dynasty leagues both of these scenarios are good. Just because a player isn’t a baller in year one, doesn’t mean everything won’t click down the road. Draft day trades will also be impactful as picks and players will be swapped in a frenzy. Your rookie may never even suit up for the franchise that originally drafted them,
You’re also looking at the trajectory. Does the franchise have a history of developing talent? Are they patient and willing to give rookies a chance to make mistakes and grow? Or are they more known for making big free agency splashes?
Wrapping Up
Free agency dictates rookie situations as well; if a team snags a veteran at your rookie’s position, that could be detrimental to playing time. This particular 2024 free agent class will have a lot of quality players, wide receivers especially. I mention that because the wide receiver has also become one of the most coveted positions in the NFL, and rookies have done well making that transition from college to NFL receivers. This year’s rookie WR class appears to be deep as well.
Whatever NFL franchise drafts rookies you’re interested in, make sure you’re gauging that team’s current state. Teams that are in win-now mode are going to rely more on established stars and proven veterans. However that’s not always the case, and if a team isn’t competing, young players will get more opportunities. Along with that, you have to think about players’ mentalities. Will they be able to flourish individually while the team’s success may be down? Coming from a winning program and joining a franchise that isn’t winning a lot of games can be tough.
If you don’t take anything else from this article remember these keys: look at college production, and weigh it with pro potential. Analyze the schemes rookies are coming from, figure out what the needs of NFL franchises are, and if their draft picks have a chance to fill those holes immediately. Look at coaches’ track records in managing young talent. Finally, stay up to date with the training camp and preseason talk.
