“Johny The Greek’s Best Week 5 NFL Bets will maximize your winning potential for every Game Prop Pick!”
Greetings and welcome to the Week 5 edition of “best bets”, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
We went 1-2 last week with only San Francisco bailing me out from a disaster. I’m sitting at 7-5 overall for the season and much like Wyatt Earp, I’ll keep shooting. There were some wild results last week but we’ve been targeting good matchups and outcomes that are likely to occur. As someone who can’t predict the future this is the best we can do. So let’s get back up on the saddle and see what’s in store for this weekend’s Best Week 5 NFL Bets!
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions, they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper”. Set a limit and stick to it, for help with problem gambling please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
All NFL Week 5 NFL Game picks, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 10/2/2024. Wee
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The bet: Travis Etienne over 64.5 rushing yards (-150). Update: Etienne was a late addition to the injury report, Tank Bigsby works for this as well if Etienne is inactive this week.
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Parlay it with an Etienne anytime TD or use an alt line to increase the rushing yards (price not available yet). I’d probably go with the TD if you want to parlay it with anything.
The rationale: This one feels pretty likely on paper, Etienne and Jacksonville are at home this week desperately trying to salvage their season in a divisional matchup against the second-worst rushing defense in the league. Indianapolis lets up 164.8 rushing yards per game and has been decimated by injuries to their defense. DeForest Buckner, the all-pro defensive tackle, isn’t expected back until around Week seven and the secondary and defensive line is riddled with injury as well. Kenny Moore, another Pro Bowl defensive player, missed last week’s game and hasn’t practiced yet this week. Juju Brents is gone for the season along with Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis is out until at least Week 9. This already suspect defense is losing starters seemingly week after week.
The best offense is a bad opposing defense
And this has had a noticeable effect, Indianapolis is dead last in time of possession across the entire league right now at only 23 minutes of offensive possession per game. This Indianapolis defense can’t seem to find the defensive stops they’re looking for and their offense isn’t helping them much. They go “three and out” often and their defense is spending so much time on the field that they are quite literally breaking down from the wear and tear. Even if this Jacksonville rushing attack doesn’t start strong, with these factors in mind, they’ve got a great shot to finish strong and really run the ball effectively in the third and fourth quarters.
And while Jacksonville is only in the middle of the pack for their overall rushing offense, we know what they’re capable of, Travis Etienne in particular. He is just one season removed from a top 5 RB finish (fantasy) and can be a “week winner” on any given Sunday. There has been some concern about Tank Bigsby eating into the carries for Etienne but Bigsby is limited with a shoulder injury this week and against this truly horrendous Indianapolis rushing defense there should be more than enough to eat for them both.
It’s now or never for Jacksonville Best Week 5 NFL Bets
Etienne has not been as productive as we would have hoped to start the season but he crossed this rushing total as recently as Week 3 against a Buffalo defense that’s in the top half of the league while Indianapolis is dead last in total defense through four weeks. It’s risky, I’m banking on Jacksonville leaning into the weakness of this Indianapolis team and exploiting it. However, with what we’ve seen from Doug Pederson so far this season, I don’t think I can guarantee that they’ll do anything smart any week. For Jacksonville, it’s time to make a move or lose their season completely, and the bottom line for me, is Travis Etienne has to be a big part of anything positive they do this week to try and climb out of the hole they’ve gotten themselves into.
New York Giants @ Seattle Seahawks
The bet: Seahawks -6.5 (-108)
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Make it Seattle -9.5 alt line (+144)
The rationale: Not only do we have a proven track record of New York having trouble flying West in recent times (0-5 ATS last season when flying West across the country) but they’re likely down their best offensive weapon (Malik Nabers) and up against an excellent Seattle team that just lost a close game to a likely NFC title game contender in Detroit. As of the time of writing, Nabers hasn’t practiced yet and is in the “early stages” of clearing concussion protocol. Recent history tells us that coming back from a concussion the week after it occurs in the modern NFL is nearly unheard of. He’s very likely going to miss this week and that’s 52 targets through four games by himself, he’s damned near the entire New York offense at this point.
Two very different levels of offense
New York will have to go to Seattle and face the number eight overall defense in the league in their house. This Seattle team is 5th overall for total offense and 10th overall in points per game at 25.5 PPG. They are loaded with offensive talent across the board and only really are having issues with the health of their defensive line at the moment. When we consider how many teams have multiple issues across multiple position groups that doesn’t seem so bad. New York is also dealing with injury issues with a starting corner (Dru Phillips) missing last week’s game and not practicing yet this week plus Devin Singletary hasn’t practiced yet this week either on top of the Nabers injury. Best Week 5 NFL Bets
Neither team is at full strength, but what strength there is leans heavily in Seattle’s favor in my humble opinion. New York is only scoring 15 points per game, which is nowhere near enough, especially without their star wide receiver, to hang with this Seattle offense that’s so loaded with talent that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is legitimately their third wide receiver, there are two pro bowl caliber wide receivers in front of him plus Kenneth Walker, who’s fresh off a monster performance himself last week.
Seattle has all the factors in their favor
We’re already seeing about a ten-point difference in this matchup just between their average points per game when we factor in the home game for Seattle and their desire to bounce back after a close loss against Detroit with New York missing their best offensive pieces (Nabers likely, Singletary possibly) we start to see the writing on the wall here. I’d be shocked if New York won this game, they certainly could cover, we’ve seen more parity in the league this season than any I can remember in recent history. So use an alt-line if you need to (Seattle -2.5 is where I’d go with that) but if this thing goes like it’s supposed to it’s going to be a bloodbath Seattle win and a “get right” game for them after a close loss in Week 4.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
The bet: Under 40.5 alt line (-215).
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use the Vegas under 36.5 (-105).
The rationale: These two teams score about 13 and 11 points per game respectively. Miami (without Tua) is the 23rd overall passing offense in the league and 26th overall offensively. New England is the worst passing attack in the league and averages fewer than 120 passing yards per game currently, they are also the worst overall offense in the league and those points per game totals above are the worst and second-worst totals in the league respectively. These are legitimately the two WORST offenses in the entire league right now!
And they’re playing each other this week, outdoors, in windy Foxborough MA. Neither defense is spectacular and both have been exposed when faced with powerful opposing offenses (Miami against Buffalo, New England against San Francisco, etc). However, both of these defenses are more than capable of holding the other offense down this week, with Jacoby Brissett and Tyler Huntley at quarterback for these two teams the odds aren’t great that we’ll see many fireworks at all.
Horrendous quarterback play x2!
Brisset is the 30th overall quarterback in terms of production (from CBS Sports) while Huntley is 31st, neither has a great PFF score with 55.6 (red) for Huntley while Brisset sits at 52.4 (also red). They aren’t producing in fantasy or all-22, which uses a PFF score instead of yards, completions, and touchdowns. Neither team has a positive turnover margin and neither team has a winning record or even close to it. These are two of the worst teams in the entire league right now in almost every statistical category.
Where I think Vegas is trying to jam us up with this is the over/under line they’ve produced, we’ve seen crazier things than two offenses that are this bad combining for 37 points or more. Heck, we’ll probably get a defensive touchdown or two in this matchup just knowing what kind of quarterback play we’re in for, and that counts towards the over/under whether we like it or not. So despite all the doom and gloom I still do think there’s a chance these teams could clear 36.5 points for the total. It would probably be a combination of field goals, defensive scores, and maybe one offensive touchdown or so per squad, but it’s doable.
Tweak the Vegas line because Vegas knows what they’re doing
With that in mind let’s tweak it a bit using an alt-line and go with under 40.5 points instead of what Vegas is suggesting with their 36.5 total. The price isn’t as good but when you parlay it with the Seattle pick we’re looking at +189, and if we added the Etienne pick that number looks even better. If you’re parlaying anything more than two bets you always want to use “round robin” so one random event doesn’t screw the entire thing up, but in general, there are ways around a “bad price”. Best Week 5 NFL Bets
Let’s hope we get the exact same offense from these two teams we’ve been seeing for weeks now and if that happens this one is as good as done for us. Let’s hope Week 5 is a bit more predictable than Week 4 was and we’ll make a sacrifice to the football Gods so they may turn their anger elsewhere. Best of luck!
Thanks for reading as always, good luck this week and let’s get that cash! Week 4 NFL Game Bets
Thank you for reading my favorite NFL Best Bets! Please don’t forget to check out the IDP Plus Moneyline channel on YouTube for “The IDP Plus Moneyline” show with Gary Van Dyke (The IDP Tipster) and yours truly where we cover our favorite bets each week of the season in a short audio format. Make sure you’re visiting IDP Plus for all your IDP and “non-traditional” fantasy football needs, we’ve got you covered for all your leagues, DFS, best ball, and betting needs!
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