All NFL Game Prop Picks for the Week 16 bets, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 12/18/2024.
Greetings and welcome to the Week 16 NFL Props, Bests Bets Game Picks, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
Back in the winner’s column
Last week was a return to form as we went 2-1 in this article and 9-4 in the accompanying podcast. We intentionally set out to make some safer plays last week and it paid off with a winning record in both places. This week we’ve got the usual shenanigans to sift through as we attempt to identify trends, weaknesses, or value that we can take advantage of and give ourselves a better chance at cashing these bets. We should have some nice opportunities this week between the injury bug slowing some teams down and the playoff push. Let’s see what Week 16 has to offer!
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions; they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper.” Set a limit and stick to it. For help with problem gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Hot Week 16 Sunday Prop Picks And Best Bets!
The bet: James Conner over 81.5 rushing yards, -114
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use an alt-line of your own choosing or parlay with other likely outcomes.
Great running back versus a bad rush defense
The rationale: This one is about as straightforward as it gets. Conner has cleared this line in 7 games already this season. He’s in the perfect position to do again this week against the worst rushing defense in the NFL. Carolina allows 173 yards per game on the ground, dead last across the entire league. Their second-best inside linebacker (Trevin Wallace) recently went to IR. Their best linebacker, Josey Jewell, was questionable all last week and barely cleared inactives to play in the game against Dallas. And those are just the recent injuries. From Derrick Brown to Shaq Thompson and everyone in-between it’s been a tough season for the health of this Panthers defense. A defense that wasn’t that great to begin with.
Arizona runs the living crap out of the ball
This week not only are they up against a team that loves to run the ball to begin with but also an Arizona team that does it exceedingly well. They are the 7th overall rushing attack and average 141.5 yards per game on the ground. As long as the game is somewhat close we should see tons of carries from this Arizona offense. They attempt an average of 27.5 carries per game and Conner is the recipient of the vast majority of those carries. The only two scenarios where I don’t see him getting enough carries to make this happen would be either an injury or Carolina jumping way out in front, causing a negative game script and forcing Arizona to try and pass their way back into the game.
This Carolina offense isn’t surprising anyone
And I don’t think that we need to worry about it not being close enough for Arizona to run their normal offense. This Carolina team only averages 17.6 points per game, which is the fifth worst for points per game offensively across the entire league. They’re just as bad offensively in the other categories we look at (except rushing, they’re decent at running the ball). I would be beyond shocked if this Carolina team ambushed Arizona and got out to a quick early lead, thereby forcing them to abandon their “run first, second, and always” typical gameplan we see from them most weeks. If this game goes like it should then Conner will have plenty of opportunity for us to clear this line. And he’ll get those opportunities against the worst rushing defense in the league. That sounds great to me!
The bet: Tony Pollard over 65.5 rushing yards, -137
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use an alt-line of your own choosing or parlay with other likely outcomes.
Talented RB getting tons of carries up against horrendous rush defense
The rationale: This one could be nullified by inactives/injury. But if Pollard can go this week he’s in a great position. Pollard has cleared this line in seven games already this season. This week he gets the Indianapolis rush defense. The same Indy rush defense we’ve been picking on all season to great profit. They allow 141.6 yards per game on the ground. That is the third worst across the entire league. Indy is favored in this game, but only by a field goal. It should remain close enough for Tennessee to get Pollard his carries. We’ve seen this game once already this season back in Week Six. Pollard ran for 93 yards and a touchdown. And that was outdoors in Tennessee.
No need to wax poetic, the setup is simple and the advantage is clear
There really isn’t much to this one. This Indianapolis offense isn’t good enough to blow out Tennessee. The game should remain close enough for Pollard to get his customary 20 carries or so. And as long as that happens we’ve got a great chance of this bet hitting. Pollard gets more than enough opportunity in a normal week and I would expect more of the same against the Colts. Tennessee is also rolling out a backup quarterback this week and we’ve seen how oftentimes teams will “dial back” their offense and run the ball more often so they’re not asking their backup to do too much. We’ve got several factors working in our favor for this bet. Let’s hope the football Gods bring it to fruition!
The bet: Caleb Williams over 225 passing yards, -110
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use an alt-line of your own choosing or parlay with other likely outcomes.
If he can’t do it this week he ain’t doing it
The rationale: Williams has cleared this line in 6 games already this season. He is in a great position to do so again this week against a Detroit defense that has been shredded with injury. If this game were last week or at any other point in this season I wouldn’t be touching this. Detroit has been an excellent defense for the majority of this season. Even when Hutchinson went down they found a way to adjust and continue to thrive on defense. But at some point, it becomes a “ship of Theseus”, and we can ask if it’s still that “great Detroit defense” when most of the players who helped create it are now on IR?
Chicago will need to pass early and often
We can already assume that Chicago will need to pass early and often in this game. They face the second-best passing attack in the league and the best points-per-game offense overall. Detroit is sixth overall in rushing offense and has a positive seven turnover differential. They are favored by a touchdown on the road (which means they’d be favored by ten if it were a neutral-site game). Vegas expects that Detroit offense to come out swinging just like they have been all season. I agree completely. Even without David Montgomery this Detroit offense is still more than potent enough to hang a ton of points on this Chicago defense. The same Chicago defense that is now within the worst third of the league for overall defense (yards per game) and the same for passing and rushing defense.
Several factors are in our favor for this bet
Detroit will score early and often and it will be up to Caleb Williams to keep Chicago in the game with his arm. That would have been a tall task against Aidan Hutchinson, Carlton Davis, Alex Anzalone, Alim McNeil, and many others who are now all on IR. This Detroit defense is a shell of what it once was and lost three starters to IR just last week. The fallout from this latest string of injuries hasn’t been felt yet so this is a bit of a projection. But it will be. There’s just no way they can maintain that same level of team defense missing so many starters. Williams will be facing a pass rush filled with aging backup veterans and a secondary made up of the same. With the negative game script we already know is coming it’s just a matter of “can he get it done” against a bunch of backups? I think he can.
Remember! Use this article and the podcast as “idea generators” instead of just a “blueprint to tail blindly” and we’ll both end up much happier at the end of the season. Learning to fish is always better than someone just handing you a fish. Good luck this week and thanks for reading!
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