“It’s the Hottest NFL Week 16 Offense Player Props And Parlay Pick With NFL Player Expert Justin Mark!”
It’s Week 16 in the NFL! The playoffs creep closer and closer! We went 2-2 last week and are looking to get back to the winning side this week. However, there are a lot of good matchups to exploit as well as some bad ones to fade! We’re back to the drawing board with our best NFL Week 16 offense player props!
Odds Recorded On 12/19/2024 Via DraftKings
Terry McLaurin Under 5.5 Receptions @ -145(Commanders)
When I talk about fantasy football I always say don’t sit your studs. No matter what. Terry McLaurin is a stud. However, there have to be some exceptions to the rule. We’ll start our Week 16 NFL Prop bets with Terry Mclaurin Under 5.5 receptions. The Commanders have a ton of talent and have over-performed expectations this year.
However, McLaurin does more damage in yardage than in receptions. He’s coming off two games in a row over 5.5 receptions. That’s not been the normal trend for him though. The five weeks before that he was under 5.5. McLaurin is currently averaging 4.9 catches per game on the year.
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These teams already faced off once this year. The Eagles defense has been one of the best defenses in the league, especially when it comes to limiting receivers. So how did Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin fare last time these two teams met? Two targets, one catch, for 10 yards. Could be another long day for Terry McLaurin. I like taking under on the catches to avoid losing the bet on one busted 75-yard play.
Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 19.5 Yards @ -115 (Lions)
This NFL Week 16 prop bet is all about fading the Bears’ defense. The Bears’ defense has seen better days, especially when it comes to stopping the run. They’re currently 31st in the league against the run. Last week they limited Aaron Jones to a longest rush of only 14 yards. It didn’t really matter as the Vikings controlled the game most of the game.
Two weeks ago the Bears defense faced up against Isaac Guerendo and the 49ers. They let Guerendo run for the longest rush of 30 yards. Poor tackling and lack of depth after injuries have made it tough on the defense. Three weeks ago, they allowed the longest rush of 28 yards. That happened to be Jahmyr Gibbs.
David Mongtomery is hurt, so Gibbs will have the full reigns on the backfield. When he was splitting time, he hit this mark. So a run of 19.5 yards when he’s the sole RB1 of this backfield feels like an easy one. Jared Goff is coming off a game where he threw for 494 yards and five touchdowns. He’s going to want to hand the ball off a little more in this game and Gibbs will be the benefactor of it. This one feels too easy.
Bucky Irving Over 55.5 Rushing Yards @ -115 (Bucs)
Last week we decided to fade the Dallas Cowboys’ defense by taking the Chuba Hubbard over-rushing yards NFL prop bet. That didn’t work out. However, we’re back at it in Week 16, targeting Bucky Irving over 55.5 rushing yards. Chuba Hubbard’s rushing line was 81.5 yards so we have a much easier mark to hit.
Aside from two weeks ago when Bucky Irving exited the game with a back injury he has been an absolute monster. In fact, in the past four games not counting his injured one, Irving has run the ball 65 times for 429 yards. That includes his past two full games where he’s gone for 117 yards and 152 yards. That makes this a favorite in my NFL Week 16 prop bets.
His 117-yard performance was against the Chargers, who have a tougher run defense than the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are currently allowing the 29th most rushing yards. If you narrow it down to just running backs, they’re allowing the 17th most rushing yards to running backs.
However, I don’t think it matters. Bucky has looked like a man on a mission. Rachaad White is a nice complimentary piece, especially at catching passes out of the backfield. This is Bucky Irving’s backfield though, and I expect him to have a big day as the Bucs beat the Cowboys.
Brian Thomas Longest Reception Over 24.5 @ -115 (Jaguars)
I realize it’s hard to put your hard-earned cash on a Jaguars’ receiver this year, especially now that Mac Jones is throwing the ball. However, Brian Thomas is the exception. Thomas has had an elite rookie season even through the struggles of Trevor Lawrence, Mac Jones, and the Jaguars in general. Thomas is going to help us cash our NFL Week 16 prop bets.
I’ll be honest, in targeting this game I would much rather take the over Brian Thomas and Jakobi Meyers receptions. However, the books don’t have either of those available at the time of this writing. Consider them a bonus bet, or you can swap them for this one. I like this bet too though.
The Raiders have been pretty good against opposing receivers. Still, they’ve allowed some big plays in the passing game. Just last week they allowed a struggling Kirk Cousins to throw a 30-yard pass to Drake London. The week before that the Bucs had three different pass catchers exceed 24.5 yard receptions.
Now they face rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas who has had a reception over 24.5 yards in each of the last three games. Thomas hasn’t been slowed by the fact that Mac Jones is getting the start. He should be able to have a decent game against this struggling Raiders’ defense and grab at least one or two big plays.
Big Parlay By The Numbers: +1004
Terry McLaurin Under 5.5 Receptions (-145)
Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 19.5 (-115)
Bucky Irving Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Brian Thomas Jr. Longest Reception Over 24.5 (-115)
It’s as great as an All-Combination or 2-pick Round-Robin as it gets!
Don’t forget to check out our other great Fantasy Football and NFL Betting content before you go! Thanks for reading my Week 16 Offense Player Props article!
