With less than 2 weeks until NFL Kickoff, it’s time to jump on these Best AFC South Player Prop Bets!
2024 AFC South Player Prop Bets
With the NFC all wrapped up, it’s time we head on over to the Super Bowl-winning conference, the AFC. The offseason is quickly coming to a close as we are only TWO weeks out from NFL Kickoff! The final chapter of the offseason is not just a great time for fantasy football, but it’s the perfect time to find value in the NFL betting markets. It’s time to put our projections to the test and our money where our mouth is! The NFL Futures Player Prop Bets Series continues on with the AFC South. This is a division with a lot of promise but just as many question marks. With the oldest starting quarterback only heading into his fourth season, all of these teams have a wide range of outcomes. This sense of the unknown creates some appealing positions in the betting markets. Here are my top four prop bets for the AFC South.
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Calvin Ridley Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110)
Let’s kick off this AFC South best bets article with the team with the most question marks. The Tennessee Titans are a team coming off a last-place finish in the division and as a result, a massive offseason overhaul. From the coaching staff to the roster, Tennessee decided it was time for a change. One of these changes has a great chance to be the team’s new WR1 in Calvin Ridley.
Coming over from Jacksonville, Ridley immediately provides a boost on the outside opposite WR DeAndre Hopkins. The Titans invested in their offensive line and skill players to go all in on their second-year QB Will Levis. Long-time workhorse RB Derrick Henry is gone and it’s time for a new era in Tennessee. A new era that involves much more of the forward pass.
Due to some poor decisions in the 2021 season, WR Calvin Ridley had plenty of doubters regarding his ability to play football still. He proved many of these critics wrong after his 1.5-year hiatus, having a productive season last year with the Jaguars. I am betting on Ridley to continue his form and simply continue being a productive NFL receiver. Excluding the 2021 season where he was suspended for gambling and only played five games, Ridley has scored 7+ TDs in every season.
With the expectation of the Titans looking to become more reliant on the pass and valuing their biggest free agent signing, I am taking WR Calvin Ridley OVER 4.5 TDs at -110.
Brian Thomas Under 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns +100
From backing one receiver’s TD prop to fading another, the AFC South’s best bets roll on. As a side note, it is crazy to me that a proven top-25 NFL WR and a rookie WR have the same TD line. The expectations in both Jacksonville and Vegas are high for the former LSU WR.
After trading away their top receiver from last season, the Jaguars turned to free agency and the draft for replacements. I am skeptical about how quickly the rookie will be able to fill this hole. Brian Thomas Jr. is a player who burst onto the scene last season. After two fairly pedestrian seasons at LSU, he exploded for 15 TDs and over 1,000 receiving yards last year. Although impressive, I think some context is important here. I believe he is a player who greatly benefitted from playing alongside a Heisman-winning QB and arguably the best WR in the draft.
As well as not expecting as many easy TD opportunities, the Jaguars are a team that spreads the ball around. In fact, only one player on the team last season scored over four receiving touchdowns. Behind WR Christian Kirk, TE Evan Engram, RB Travis Etienne, and arguably WR Gabe Davis, I view Thomas as the fourth or fifth option in this offense.
I expect the rookie WR to have some big plays this season but ultimately struggle to consistently find the end zone. Give me Jaguars WR Brian Thomas UNDER 4.5 Rec TDs at a nice +100.
Joe Mixon Over 850.5 Rush Yards +100
The show rolls on with another bet at even money in this AFC South preview. The Houston Texans are one of the hottest-topic teams this offseason. Everyone can’t stop talking about second-year QB CJ Stroud and their new trio of WRs. Look, I am not denying that their passing offense has the potential to be great. However, I think people are seriously overlooking their ability to run the damn ball this season.
The Texans brought in RB Joe Mixon to replace Devin Singletary this offseason. In this swap alone, I view this as an upgrade to the running game. Mixon is a proven back who has rushed for over 1,000 yards in four out of his seven seasons. Meanwhile, Singletary has never surpassed 900 yards rushing and had a career-high in rushing yards in this offense last season. I expect this season to provide an even better opportunity for Mixon as the offensive line comes into the season healthy. A healthy offensive line was a rare sight for this Houston team last year.
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Despite the expectations of a prolific offense that is going to throw the ball all over the yard, we have to remember the head coach. DeMeco Ryans is a defensive coach who values running the ball. Despite less talent in the backfield, the Texans still ran the ball for over 1600 yards. I expect more efficiency in the run game and for the large majority of these carries to be Mixon’s to utilize. The coaching staff has made it pretty clear that RB2 Dameon Pierce is not a viable option for this offense.
Joe Mixon is a proven productive NFL back on an offense that will have success moving the ball and have the lead in most games. I am smashing the bet of Texans RB Joe Mixon OVER 850.5 Rush Yards at +100.
Michael Pittman Jr. Most Receiving Yards in the AFC South +400
Let’s end this AFC South best bets article with a bang! Michael Pittman Jr. is the one receiver in this division who has a clear path to being the standalone Alpha for his team’s passing game.
The Indianapolis Colts enter this season with a young team that has the potential to be a solid group. There are still some questions to be answered for how this offense will look but one thing is clear, Michael Pittman will be the number one target. Whether it is second-year QB Anthony Richardson or seasoned veteran Joe Flacco, Pittman is going to be dominating the target share. With shaky QB play at best, the young WR has proven he can produce at a high level. Despite playing with a backup QB for the majority of the season, Pittman put up career-best numbers in receptions and receiving yards. I expect this trajectory to continue with a more stabilized offensive scheme under head coach Shane Steichen.
Additionally, in order for this bet to hit, not only does Pittman need a solid year but he has to beat out his division rivals. Taking a look around the division, every other top WR has some serious competition on their own team for targets. Houston has three players vying for the WR1 role, Tennessee brought in Ridley to pair with Hopkins, and Jacksonville seems to be taking a WR Committee approach. I view Michael Pittman Jr as the most talented WR, with the best offensive situation in this division. For this reason, I’m backing Pittman Jr. for Most Rec Yards in the AFC South at +400.
