Start beating the sports books before the 2024 NFL season even kicks off with these AFC East Best Bets!
2024 AFC East Bets
With the NFC all wrapped up, it’s time we head on over to the Super Bowl-winning conference, the AFC. The offseason is quickly coming to a close as we are only THREE weeks out from NFL Kickoff! The final chapter of the offseason is not just a great time for fantasy football, but it’s the perfect time to find value in the NFL betting markets. It’s time to put our projections to the test and our money where our mouth is! The NFL Futures Player Props Series marches on with the AFC East Best bets.
This is one of the most interesting divisions in football this season. You have three teams that are legitimate playoff contenders, and one team… that’s the farthest thing from it. Speaking of those New England Patriots, don’t expect to find any of their prop bets here. It’s hard to fade them more than the market already is, and let’s be honest, who on that roster are you excited for?
Without further ado, here are my top four prop bets for the AFC East.
*Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Keon Coleman Under 675.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Let’s kick this article off with a nice rookie FADE. The Bills entered this offseason with some major changes. Most notably, they shipped off their top two WRs in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. Buffalo had relied on this dynamic receiver duo since 2020. In my opinion, this changing of the guard signifies a shift in their offensive mindset.
New offensive coordinator Joe Brady took over halfway through the season and immediately there was more of a focus on the running game. There was also an increase of two TE sets and a shift away from the gun-slinging offense we grew accustomed to. I expect this offense to feature a more balanced attack behind a strong run game and utilizing their TEs frequently in the passing game.
With a projection of fewer targets for this new WR room, I also do not see two players dominating target share. With the additions of WRs Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, the rookie joins a crowded position group. Keon Coleman is a player who excelled in contested catches in college but failed to create a lot of separation. In fact, despite scoring 11 touchdowns, he only put up 658 receiving yards last year at FSU.
I do not view Keon Coleman as a rookie who is going to come into this WR room and immediately be the alpha dog. I view him as a decent WR who comes into a room filled with other average to above average NFL WRs. Despite likely seeing significant playing time this season, I think the rookie WR struggles to make an impact in the stat column.
Give me Bills WR Keon Coleman UNDER 675.5 Rec Yards at -110.
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Raheem Mostert Over 675.5 Rush Yards (-115)
This next bet is NOT for the De’Von Achane truthers out there. Look, two things can be true. 1) De’Von Achane is a more explosive back than Raheem Mostert. 2) Raheem Mostert provides the perfect consistent running game for this Miami offense.
I understand that Achane is the homer threat in the backfield, but you can’t swing for the fences on every at-bat. Raheem Mostert has rushed for just under 5.0 yards a carry in his past two seasons in Miami. He has shown an ability to stay healthy and make the most of his opportunity later in his career. This is something his running mate Achane has not proven yet in his young NFL career.
Now the age concerns for Mostert are valid, coming into his 10th season as a 32-year-old. However, let’s remember that Mostert did not play much during his first seven seasons. In fact, he had less than 300 combined carries in his first seven years in the NFL. His body does not have the same wear and tear as your typical veteran RB.
Raheem Mostert has carved out a nice role for himself as the workhorse in the Miami backfield. This is a role I don’t see him giving up any time soon, on a dynamic offense with a coach who trusts him. I’ll back Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert OVER 675.5 Rush Yards at -115.
Mike Williams OVER 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns +115
Enough with the simple minus odds bets. It’s time we start living a bit dangerously. Enter the New York Jets. The Jets are a team on paper, that look like they can compete with anybody in the league. However, as was the issue last season, health is going to be the biggest indicator of their success.
With health at the forefront, I now find myself in a peculiar position. Backing a skilled player the season after a major injury. Now typically, this is a situation I steer clear of, but I think the stars have aligned here.
WR Mike Williams comes in as the Jet’s big-time free-agency signing. At 6’4” and 218 pounds, Williams is a big-body receiver who I think is a great fit for QB Aaron Rodgers. He provides a friendly target in the red zone for an offense that was lacking that presence. With WR Garrett Wilson and RB Breece Hall creating headaches for defenses, Williams is in an ideal situation.
Now, let’s address the elephant in the room. William’s season was cut short last season after he suffered an ACL tear on September 24th. A brutal season-ending knee injury that comes with a lengthy 10-12 month recovery timeline. The only bright side to Williams getting injured early in the season, is that he has ample recovery time. With 11.5 months from the injury until Week 1, I expect Williams on a snap count for the first four weeks, and then to be let loose.
Give me the big body WR in Mike Williams OVER 4.5 Rec TDs at +115.
Breece Hall To Get 1000+ Rushing and 500+ Receiving Yards +275
Speaking of health, I don’t think people appreciate just how amazing Breece Hall’s 2023 season was. Coming off an ACL tear of his own, Hall recorded 994 rushing yards and 591 receiving yards with 9 TDs. He accounted for HALF of his team’s touchdowns despite playing behind a BAD offensive line and AWFUL QB play.
The scariest part for AFC East defenses? Breece Hall says he didn’t even feel 100% last season. Hall explained this offseason that it wasn’t until now that he *finally* felt healthy and normal again. This is not an uncommon phenomenon coming off an ACL tear. In fact, the research shows it can take up to two years for players to regain their pre-injury movement fully.
After missing this bet by a mere six yards last season, the Jets RB is now healthier, playing behind an improved O-Line, and has competent QB play. I will take this bet at plus money all day long. Jets RB Breece Hall will have 1000+ Rushing and 500+ Receiving Yards at +275.
