All NFL Game Prop Picks for the Week 14 bets, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 12/4/2024.
Greetings and welcome to the Week 14 NFL Props, Bests Bets Game Picks, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
We had a down week in this article going just 1-2 last week but ending up at 9-6 for the accompanying podcast. So we had some good as well as bad in Week 13. This week we have another six teams on bye so options may be limited. We’ll continue to target the trends, weaknesses, and stats that have been allowing us to craft bets with a good chance of hitting. As the playoff race heats up and more teams go from “contender” to “spoiler” and vice versa we may be able to take advantage of some of these trends as they appear. Let’s get into it!
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions; they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper.” Set a limit and stick to it. For help with problem gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Hot Week 14 Sunday Prop Picks And Best Bets!
The bet: Will Levis over 208.5 passing yards, -115
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use an alt line to increase the passing yards total he needs to get over or parlay round-robin with other likely outcomes.
The rationale: Tennessee as a team may be on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoff chase but they’ve been quietly producing in the passing game recently. This week they get an almost perfect matchup against the Jaguars and their “dead last” passing defense. They allow 273 yards per game through the air and Levis has been pretty good recently. He’s cleared this line the past three weeks in a row and has made players such as Westbrook-Ikhine into legitimate fantasy options, which is wild. He’s still taking sacks, 22 in the past four games. And he’s still throwing picks, two in the last four games. But that doesn’t matter in this divisional matchup against the equally stinky Jags.
They’re both bad, one is worse
Jacksonville is the worst passing defense in the league as stated previously. Beyond that, they’re also within the worst third of the league for rushing defense, dead last in total defense, and have a negative nine turnover differential (third worst in the league). They have now lost Trevor Lawrence for the rest of the season and will be rolling out Mac Jones or another backup quarterback this week. Jacksonville has the worst time of possession ranking in the league at just 26 minutes of offensive possession per game. Tennessee will control the ball for at least five more minutes offensively if their respective rankings hold this week. The point I’m trying to get across here is that we’re asking Levis to clear this passing total line against THIS team, not the 85′ Bears. This isn’t a heavy lift.
The setup is correct for this to happen for us
Tennessee isn’t anything to write home about either. They’re just as bad in the rankings but their defense is solid when it comes to allowing yards. They are second overall in total defense, and yards per game allowed. Tennessee is also first overall in passing defense across the league. They sack the quarterback more than Jacksonville does with 26 to 23 total team sacks throughout the season. Levis actually has pass catchers to target in Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook Ikhine. Jacksonville should end up losing the time of possession battle handily and that gives us plenty of opportunity for Levis to get over this number, especially if we get those few extra drives that seem likely from this setup.
This one feels pretty good!
This game is at home in front of a friendly crowd and I believe Tennessee will take advantage of this setup and blow away a hobbled and dejected Jacksonville team at home. The mix of a nice, attainable passing yards total for the over and this setup discussed above make this a solid bet for Week 14.
The bet: Chase Brown over 72.5 rushing yards, -137
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use an alt line to increase the rushing yardage or parlay round robin with other likely outcomes.
The rationale: This also feels like a slam dunk this week. Vegas has the early total for this Dallas/Cincy game at 49.5 points, the second highest over/under of Week 14. They think we’re getting a shootout because neither defense is good and I agree completely. Beyond that, this Dallas rushing defense is not just bad, it’s really bad, and Chase Brown is set up for a huge night. Dallas is allowing 147.6 yards per game on the ground, that’s the second-worst ranking across the league. We know that Joe Burrow is going to dice up this bad Dallas defense but I’d be shocked if Brown didn’t get his customary 15-plus rushing attempts this week and did some dicing of his own.
Dallas rush defense continues to be nonexistent
It’s such a glaring weakness that we’ve been targeting it all season long to great profit. In the past month opposing rushing attacks have rushed for 116, 145, 141, and 187 yards against this Dallas defense. There are wins in that list, even in the dominating win against New York the Cowboys allowed 116 rushing yards. Win or lose, this Dallas defense is allowing opponents to run on them for triple digits consistently. Their 27th overall time of possession ranking and 31st overall rushing offense doesn’t help either. They go three and out so often that their defense is gassed by the third quarter. The lack of their own rushing attack hurts their time of possession ranking and further degrades their defense when they’re asked to go back onto the field without rest between drives.
The factors we look for are all here
All of those factors plus a backup quarterback who is turnover prone (Dallas has a negative seven turnover differential) will lead to extra and longer possessions for Cincy. Chase Brown himself has cleared this line in half of his last four games and is averaging 18.5 carries per game over the last month. Vegas is telling us they expect a shootout with their huge total and small spread which helps us even further. Dallas is also a much better team at pass defense than rush defense so it tracks that Cincy would game plan in some additional runs for Brown this week. It’s an achievable line in an ideal setup, that’s about as good as it gets around these parts. Let’s hope the football Gods make this one happen for us!
The bet: Bills alt line -2.5, -156
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use the Vegas spread, Bills -3.5, or another alt line of your own choosing. Buffalo -6.5 is absolutely in play this week. Buffalo -9.5 may even be a possibility. Our bet is a good mix of “likely to occur” and price.
The rationale: Part of this is just the fact that Buffalo is a better team across the board and the other part is vibes. Josh Allen just got engaged and is a happy man doing what he loves. He’s more locked in than we’ve seen him in a long time. This Buffalo team has their eyes on that first round bye and a Super Bowl run and I doubt that Los Angeles will be anything more than a speed bump for them this week.
Hedging our bet
With that said, Matt Stafford is still a savvy veteran, Super Bowl winning quarterback with his own set of excellent weapons so it’s not a sure thing by any means. With all that in mind this alt-line is a good mix of playing it safe (Buffalo only needs to win by a field goal now) and price. Parlay round robin with other likely bets if the price is not to your liking (or just skip it).
It’s pretty black and white
We can save the vibes for the theoretical but on paper Buffalo is the better overall offense, yards per game. They’re the better passing offense, better rushing offense, turn the ball over less, and sack the quarterback more. Buffalo has the best turnover differential in the league. Offensively they are better than Los Angeles in every meaningful category. Defensively, more of the same. Buffalo is the better team in overall yards allowed per game, they’re a better passing defense, a better rushing defense, and have about two more minutes of offensive time of possession per week compared to Los Angeles. They’re the better team across the board.
Only one of these teams has a real shot at the Lombardi Trophy
And while the Rams are still in the playoff hunt when it comes to the NFC wildcard race (heck even the division in that messed up NFC West) they know what we know, it’s not a Super Bowl year for them and a rebuild is right around the corner. Buffalo is in a prime position, especially after beating Kansas City, to secure the overall number-one seed in the AFC. Making everyone come to them in their snow-covered field is a huge advantage. They’re a balanced offense and are playing together as a team. Everything is lining up for them.
The diva is gone (Diggs) and this team doesn’t care about anything other than winning games. Josh Allen is locked in and this team looks very dangerous when the playoffs come around. It’s the NFL and anything can happen on any given Sunday. But I would be shocked if Buffalo didn’t take this chance to beat up on an inferior opponent. If they do it will only improve their playoff seeding and implications.
Remember! Use this article and the podcast as “idea generators” instead of just a “blueprint to tail blindly” and we’ll both end up much happier at the end of the season. Learning to fish is always better than someone just handing you a fish. Good luck this week and thanks for reading!
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