“The HOTTEST Week 8 NFL Prop Bets And Parlay Picks with the One And Only, Johny The Greek!”
Greetings and welcome to the Week 8 NFL Prop Bets Game Picks, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
We’re coming off of another solid week! I was 7-5 for the podcast picks last week and 2-1 in this article, we’ve now had a winning record overall for the previous three weeks in a row. Let’s dive into Week 8 and see if we can keep the streak going!
Remember! Use this article and the podcast as “idea generators” instead of just a “blueprint to tail blindly” and we’ll both end up much happier at the end of the season. Learning to fish is always better than someone just handing you a fish.
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions, they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper”. Set a limit and stick to it, for help with problem gambling please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
All Game Picks for Week 8 NFL Prop Bets, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 10/23/2024.
The bet: Joe Mixon over 69.5 rushing yards (-137), line is from Betting Pros, Draft Kings line may be slightly different when it drops.
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use an alt line to up the rushing yards total we need to get over, the price is not available yet. Or parlay with an anytime touchdown, Mixon has found the end zone many times this season so that’s always a strong possibility.
The rationale: We’ve been riding this train for a minute now this season and it’s come into the station for us plenty. We are all well aware of how bad this Indianapolis rushing defense is, we’ve been taking advantage of this since we identified this weakness. Just recently we’ve had Devon Achane over 55 rushing yards against Indy, and he gave us 77, before that we had Tony Pollard over 60ish rushing yards and he gave us 93.
Prior to that, we had the Jacksonville running backs over on their yards when they gave us 126 rushing yards. In Week 4 the Steelers rushed for 122 yards, in Week 3 it was a disaster for Chicago and a clear outlier, but in Week 2 we got 261 rushing yards from the Packers against this suspect Indy rushing defense. And finally, in Week 1 we saw Joe Mixon, who we are once again betting on this week, go for an incredible 159 rushing yards.
Mixon will be parting this defense like Moses and the Red Sea
Indianapolis is still the second-worst rush defense in the league allowing 159 yards per game on the ground. And while DeForest Buckner may be back soon, it probably won’t be this week. They’ve also lost EJ Speed at linebacker and his direct replacement, Jaylon Carlies, to injuries that have them looking to be out this week. Indy will be starting a 3rd or 4th string inside linebacker and the injuries to their defensive line are well-documented (Tyquan Lewis gone, Samson Ebukam gone, Buckner just coming off IR himself, and Juju Brents gone in the secondary). They’re not getting healthier overall, and this rush defense has not improved in the slightest. UPDATE: Ej Speed is likely back this week, however Buckner is still questionable. That doesn’t change the fact that their defensive line is absolutely shredded.
This game is also at Houston facing a division leader in the Texans that just lost a close game to an excellent Packers team. Houston has their eyes on the playoffs, a division title, and making a Super Bowl run while their quarterback is still on his rookie deal. Indy is just trying to figure out if Anthony Richardson is the answer or not and that’s it. These teams are in two completely different solar systems when it comes to expectations and the spread for this game reflects that fact (Houston is favored by almost a touchdown in a divisional game). Houston is also the second-best team in the league for time of possession whereas Indy is dead last in this category.
Mixon has been stellar this season even against legit rush defense
The Houston offense will be on the field plenty and we’ve seen how much they favor Mixon when he’s healthy and playing for them. He’s averaging well over 100 rushing yards in the games he’s been active for this season and is getting 22 carries per game minimum. He just went crazy against the Packers and Patriots and their rush defenses are exponentially better than what he gets with the Colts this week. Green Bay is within the top third of the league for rush defense while New England is among the middle of the pack. Odds are also good that this one turns into a blowout and we see Mixon “salting away the clock” with some additional carries in the third and fourth quarters. So even if he hasn’t hit this line by then there should be plenty of opportunity to clear it late in this one.
Step one, steal underpants, step two (???), step three, profit
There’s nothing complicated or new with this bet, we’re just doing what we’ve been doing all season. We identify a trend, stat, or weakness and then exploit it for value. The weakness in this matchup is blindingly obvious, the Colts’ rush defense. And we’ll exploit that by taking the “over” on Mixon’s rushing yards prop this week and hopefully ride it to paydirt!
The bet: Over 79 rushing yards (-137), line is from Betting Pros, Draft Kings line may be slightly different when it drops.
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use an alt line to increase the rushing yards total we need to get over, the price is not available yet. Or parlay with an anytime touchdown, which is also a strong possibility with the San Francisco wide receivers corps shredded with injury.
The rationale: This is also a pretty obvious setup to exploit a known weakness, the Dallas rush defense, and it lines up even better with Aiyuk out for sure and Deebo likely out this week for San Francisco. Dallas has the 27th overall rushing defense, also known as 6th worst across the league, and is allowing 143 yards per game on the ground. They are without Lawrence, Williams, Kneeland, and Jordan Phillips for sure this week on the defensive line. They are likely without Micah Parsons as well and Eric Kendricks is also questionable and missed last week’s game. These players are the lifeblood of this Dallas defense and without them, they’ve been Swiss cheese to opposing running backs.
The “vaunted Dallas defense” is no more
Dallas is also the 4th worst team across the entire league for the offensive time of possession. San Francisco is first overall in this ranking and offensively possesses the ball about 6 more minutes per game when compared to Dallas. Beyond that, Dallas is the worst rushing attack themselves in the league, they only average 77 yards per game on the ground.
That’s another way of saying they’re “one-dimensional.” And while the San Francisco offense may be beaten up, their defense is just fine and more than capable of shutting down this horrendous Dallas rushing attack and forcing them to throw early and often. That will play right into the hands of this spectacular 49ers pass rush and secondary. All of this is to say that San Francisco should absolutely dominate the time of possession so Mason will have plenty of chances to get over this line for us, especially in garbage time when the 49ers will be milking the clock to salt the game away late.
Mason should be the engine that drives this offense in Week 8
Beyond all of that, options are limited for the 49ers to begin with. Now that Aiyuk is gone for the season and Deebo is in the hospital with Pneumonia their offensive game plan will have to shift dramatically. San Francisco has always loved to run the ball to begin with and now with these injuries, they’ll have no choice but to do so early and often. That these factors have lined up with the fact that Dallas has one of the worst rushing defenses in the league is “mana from heaven” for us in regards to this bet.
This has gone well historically as well
This game is also at home for San Francisco and they’re coming off of a tough loss to Kansas City. They’ll be more than invested in getting things back on track against this dumpster fire Dallas team. And beyond that, if we look back at recent running back performances against Dallas from San Francisco we’ll feel even better about this. In the last two matchups against Dallas, this 49ers team has cleared 100 rushing yards with ease and that was against a healthy, legit, Dallas defense and not what they’ll face this week. Everything is lining up for this to be an easy over for us and we pray the football Gods keep Mason healthy and deliver us this small victory.
The bet: Ravens alt line -6.5 (-153)
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use the Vegas line, Ravens -8.5 (-108), or lean into the likely blowout, Ravens -13.5 (+155). Or parlay round robin with other “likely” outcomes to increase the overall price with the ability to still get one or two wrong and still profit or break even.
The rationale: To round things out we’ve got another “likely” outcome that we’re going to tweak a bit to make safer since it’s a divisional game despite the obvious differences between these two teams. Baltimore is the hottest team in the league right now, there’s no denying that fact. After a bad 0-2 start they’ve won five straight including beating an excellent Washington team, a feisty Tampa Bay team, and the Bills in a blowout. They’ve leaned into their “run first” identity and are the best rushing attack in the game averaging 210 yards per game on the ground.
Baltimore is firing on all cylinders
This in turn has helped them to also be within the top third of the league for time of possession offensively. Lamar has been handing it off often, but he’s also thrown 15 touchdown passes this season and surpassed 250 passing yards in all but two games (I’m counting the 247-yard game, close enough). Their balanced offense is causing all kinds of problems for opposing defenses, with Derrick Henry carrying the rock and putting up career stats. They are at Cleveland this week but against this dumpster fire Browns team, I don’t think we’ll see the kind of “home-field advantage” we normally would in years past.
Baltimore is also the best team in the league defensively at stopping the rush. This is unfortunate for a Cleveland team that just traded its best wide receiver and really only has the run game to use at the moment. Baltimore also has a positive turnover differential whereas Cleveland most certainly does not. Cleveland is also starting their third-string quarterback this week with Jameis Winston, so this thing could really go South on them fast. The Browns are the 4th worst offense in the league in rushing yards per game, 3rd worst in passing yards per game, and dead last in overall yards per game, and that was with their starting quarterback.
The setup looks good
You never know what’s going to happen on any given Sunday, but on paper, this looks like an obvious blowout blood bath. Despite this, I want to take the Vegas line and tweak it down a couple of points so that Baltimore only needs to win by a touchdown for us to cover. Thankfully that doesn’t affect the price too much and we still get an acceptable -153 when it’s all said and done. Who knows, I could be way off on this and Winston could come out slinging it and make it a game. With Amari Cooper out, a “limited” Nick Chubb coming off major knee surgery, and a backup quarterback known for throwing interceptions, this one looks good on paper.
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