Quarterbacks are the lifeblood of NFL franchises and are vital to Superflex/2QB rosters. How do the top 2024 QB prospects stack up?
Quarterback prospect evaluations are something I take pride in (and have a decent track record in, despite some misses). My rankings are rarely consensus, and this year is no different! 2024 has been called an elite class for rookie QB prospects and it absolutely is. There are two generational prospects, another worthy 1.01, and then another 3-5 QBs who may end up (or would be in a weaker class like 2022) in the first-round discussion.
Below are my rankings for the 2024 QB prospects along with some analysis for NFL and fantasy on each one. These rankings would change with draft capital, but until we have that, here is how I stack these 2024 QB prospects.
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Tier 1: The generational prospects
Drake Maye, North Carolina
My QB1 is not the player who will almost certainly go first in the NFL (or fantasy) draft. Maye has the highest grade I have given to a Quarterback prospect (since 2019). He is a great athlete (which is overlooked with the other talents in this class) and has phenomenal arm talent and is a creative passer with great (though at times inconsistent) accuracy. Maye needs to cut down on the “hero ball” which will get him in trouble (as it has with Trevor Lawrence), but his aggressiveness can lead to explosive plays.
Caleb Williams, USC (Oklahoma)
Williams has had his name mentioned with the top prospects of the past millennia like Trevor Lawrence. Not only is he QB2 in this class, but has my 2nd highest QB grade, behind only Maye. He has above-average-to-elite tools in every category aside from his height. His accuracy is phenomenal, being able to put the ball in any window with varying velocities. The chaotic playmaking is Williams’ biggest flaw, as he will pass up an easy, in-structure play, to make a play (Maye can fall into this as well).
The difference between the two is a coin flip and purely stylistic for me, as Williams is an absolute chaos merchant (good thing, most of the time!) and more of an air-raid style fit. Either are worthy of the first pick in the NFL or a superflex draft, while also being worth a mid-first round pick in 1QB leagues.
Tier 2: QB1 in almost any other class
Jayden Daniels, LSU (Arizona State)
Jayden Daniels won the Heisman this season after a ridiculous 3800/40/4 passing line with over 1100 yards and 10 TDs on the ground. He is more than just a runner, as he’s an accurate passer with a good, strong arm too. His biggest concerns are playstyle, which may be more a result of his team and scheme. He runs recklessly, though he has a slight frame and – unlike Williams and Maye – scrambles to run, not to create with his arm. Even in a class with two generational QB prospects, Daniels is worth a top-5 NFL pick and fantasy 1.01 in superflex leagues with the rushing upside.
Tier 3: The polarizing potential starters
JJ McCarthy, Michigan
JJ McCarthy is a polarizing prospect, facing many questions that Brock Purdy is now with the 49ers. Michigan is a veteran, absurdly talented team where McCarthy was merely a cog. He has thrown 500 to 1,000 less passes than most of his classmates, making him a difficult study. His tools are incredible, with a great arm and plus-plus athletic ability. He can be scattershot at times, but that should improve with more reps. In big moments he was lights out. He is an enigma, but the talent is worth a shot at the end of the first round in the NFL and Superflex drafts.
Spencer Rattler, South Carolina (Oklahoma)
Another surprise ranking is Spencer Rattler, coming in above two notable veteran transfer QBs with more team success. Rattler was wildly inconsistent (on and off the field) at Oklahoma, but matured as a person and passer after being replaced by Caleb Williams and moving on to South Carolina. He has above-average tools in almost every area, though none are elite. His performance under pressure sets him apart from the rest (343 pressures and 67 sacks in two years at South Carolina). He is not a ready-made starter, but after learning a more pro-style offense, has the tools to be an upper-half starter.
Michael Penix Jr, Washington (Indiana)
Michael Penix Jr. is one of the most polarizing prospects at any position this year. He has a great, powerful arm and is a great processor. His accuracy is inconsistent and he is a different player when pressured (see the national championship game). He benefited from a top-5 talent at WR, two more top-50 talents, the best OL in the game, and one of the most QB-friendly schemes in the game. Add in 4 season-ending injuries while at Indiana, and we have a volatile prospect profile. His career outcomes depend on his landing spot, with many variable options.
Tier 4: The veteran leaders with limited tools
Michael Pratt, Tulane
Michael Pratt is an experienced starter with nice, but non-elite tools. He throws well (strong and accurately) over the middle and deep, but trusts his arm too much and can be scattershot. Pratt is a good athlete with the ability to scramble and avoid pressure. However, his pocket presence can also be inconsistent. Pratt needs time to adjust to an NFL offense, but he can be a solid spot starter or bridge. If he can get day-2 capital, he will be worth a second-round pick in Superflex drafts.
Bo Nix, Oregon (Auburn)
What to say about Bo Nix. He was atrocious at Auburn but turned into an elite college QB in two years at Oregon. His leadership and plus athletic ability are putting him into top-15 conversations for NFL teams, which would skyrocket his fantasy stock. However, he does not feel like a great – or even good – NFL prospect. In 2 years at Oregon, he completed almost 75% of his passes, but is he an accurate QB? The scheme was more helpful to him than almost any QB in the country, with an average depth of target (aDoT) that was 139th of 143 in 2023 and 146th in 2022 (per PFF, amongst QBs with 100+ pass attempts). His time at Auburn matters, but it should not write the book on him.
What concerns me more than that film (which again, was significantly better at Oregon) is the limited arm strength, unreliable decision-making, and lack of high-level throws. He has the longest entry in this article as he is one of the hardest players (regardless of position) to break down! Let’s see if he can prove the haters wrong again!
Tier 5: The upside backups
Devin Leary, Kentucky (North Carolina State)
Sam Hartman, Notre Dame (Wake Forest)
Davius Richard, North Carolina Central
Joe Milton, Tennessee (Michigan)
Here is a group of 2024 QB prospects with solid ability, but a combination of massively up-and-down film and/or limited tools. Devin Leary has a legitimate NFL arm, but struggled over the past few seasons with NCSU and Kentucky, though still showed out at times. Milton has every athletic tool imaginable but is really an older Anthony Richardson whose flaws are much easier to see.
Sam Hartman ran a non-NFL offense at Wake Forest but had great film there and with Notre Dame this season while being a top-tier leader. Davius Richard is a fascinating HBCU/FCS dual-threat QB but comes with limitations as a passer and with competition. All are worth drafting late and stashing, but in all likelihood, only one (if any) of these players has long-term fantasy value.
Tier 6: The backups/practice squad guys
Austin Reed, Western Kentucky (Southern Illinois, West Florida)
Jack Plummer, Louisville (Purdue, Cal)
Kedon Slovis, BYU (USC, Pittsburgh)
Jordan Travis, Florida State (Louisville)
Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland (Alabama)
Tier 6 is the group of QBs that most likely ends up as career backups or practice squad-type players. This group features players with experience or some talent, but a lack of above-average-to-great traits. Reed, Plummer, and Slovis had varying success at multiple stops. All have solid arms and decent athletic ability, though Slovis (freshman sensation at USC in 2019) has the highest tools, while Reed has put on the best film.
Jordan Travis is a great leader and athlete who helped revive FSU, but he does not have NFL arm talent nor accuracy on film. Taulia Tagovailoa (Tua’s brother) had moments at Maryland but has similar limitations as Travis. Travis and Reed are players I expect to be the highest drafted in this group, though all do have backup ability.
To recap my 2024 QB prospect rankings for the 2024 NFL Draft:
- Drake Maye, UNC
- Caleb Williams, USC
- Jayden Daniels, LSU
- JJ McCarthy, Michigan
- Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
- Michael Penix, Washington
- Michael Pratt, Tulane
- Bo Nix, Oregon
- Devin Leary, Kentucky
- Sam Hartman, Notre Dame
- Joe Milton, Tennessee
- Davius Richard, North Carolina Central
- Austin Reed, Western Kentucky
- Jack Plummer, Louisville
- Kedon Slovis, BYU
- Jordan Travis, FSU
- Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland
Finally, here is another handful-and-a-half of QBs to keep an eye on (in alphabetical order). Any of this group could turn into a solid backup, but none have produced consistent NFL film or talent at this point. Armstrong and Jurkovic are my group favorites, due to some previous successes (like in 2021), but have fallen off the radar in the subsequent years.
The deeper cuts with backup potential
Brennan Armstrong, North Carolina State (Virginia)
Carter Bradley, South Alabama
Chevan Cordeiro, San Jose State (Hawai’i)
Jason Bean, Kansas (North Texas)
Jeremy Moussa, FAMU
John Rhys Plumlee, UCF (Ole Miss)
Phil Jurkovic, Pittsburgh (Boston College)
Tanner Mordecai, Wisconsin (Oklahoma, SMU)
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That will do it for our pre-combine breakdown on 2024 QB prospects, thank you for reading! QBs are the most important (and fun!) position in sports, so we went deep to cover as many names as possible. I hope you enjoyed it and took some information from it! You can find my other work on my IDP Guys Author Page, and feel free to reach out to me directly @JoeLow63 on X, where you can also find and follow @IDPGuys!
