So, um, Week 1 was…something.
The cold hard truth with sports betting is that there are going to be good weeks, and then there will be bad weeks. Weeks where things just don’t pan out like you expected. Weeks where you just miss the tackle prop for Tennessee Titans cornerback L’Jarius Sneed because Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams can’t even crack 100 passing yards.
It wasn’t surprising that Williams struggled somewhat in his NFL debut. But 93 passing yards? Come on, man!
Week 1 is also arguably the hardest week of the entire regular season to make accurate predictions about. Our conclusions for Week 1 are based either on year-old data or on what we saw over the summer from teams—teams that more and more don’t play their starters at all in the preseason.
Some of those conclusions wind up being spot-on. Others not so much—not many IDP pundits pegged Gregory Rousseau Jr. of the Buffalo Bills and Andrew Van Ginkel of the Minnesota Vikings as the two highest-scoring defensive linemen of Week 1.
Now, however, we have one week of play to judge players and teams. That information could be helpful. But we also can’t overreact to a small sample size, lest we wind up once again flailing blindly and making ill-advised wagers.
Now that I have endeavored to rationalize a Week 1 that was—less than ideal, it’s time to shake off the stink from the week that was and get after it again.
And by golly, this week is going to be different.
I think.
Now let’s go grab some units!
Wait a second…
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
WEEK 2 NFL Defensive Player PROPS
Josh Hines-Allen (EDGE, JAX) Over .25 Sacks Against the Cleveland Browns (-125)
The Jaguars suffered a crushing loss to the Miami Dolphins in a Week 1 game where the team led 17-7 and was going in for a kill-shot touchdown when running back Travis Etienne Jr. coughed up the rock. And while Travon Walker logged a sack in the game, batterymate Josh Hines-Allen was quiet, managing just two assists.
That changes this week against a Cleveland Browns team that allowed six sacks last week against the Dallas Cowboys. Cleveland was short their starting tackles in that game, and while Jack Conklin is at last practicing in a limited fashion Jedrick Wills has yet to get back on the practice field.
Last year, Hines-Allen exploded for a career-high 17.5 sacks on the way to a five-year, $150 million contract extension. Deshaun Watson was under constant duress last week against the Cowboys, and Hines-Allen and Walker should be able to harass Watson again in Week 2.
Time for Hines-Allen to start earning all that cheese.
T.J. Watt (EDGE, PIT) Over .75 Sacks Against the Denver Broncos (-180)
This one is admittedly something of low-hanging fruit with a diminished return on investment. But any winnings are winnings—and sometimes low-hanging fruit can taste pretty sweet.
Watt was a force of nature last week against the Atlanta Falcons—four tackles, a sack, two tackles for loss, three quarterback hits, and a forced fumble. Two more strip-sacks were called back by penalties. Watt was dominant. Unblockable. He was—well, he was T.J. Watt.
Now, Watt and the Steelers head west to take on the Denver Broncos and a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix who is making his second career NFL start. Nix was only sacked twice in last week’s loss to Seattle, but that was against a Seahawks team short one of its best pass-rushers in Uchenna Nwosu.
Denver surrendered 52 sacks in 2023—fourth-most in the NFL. Watt needs just 2.5 more sacks to amass 100 for his career—at the age of 29.
He may well hit that benchmark Sunday in the Mile High City. But one sack? Book it.
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Antonio Johnson (S, JAX) Over 4.5 Total Tackles Against the Cleveland Browns (-105)
Johnson is hardly a household name, but he has earned a spot as a starter at safety opposite Andre Cisco in his second NFL season. Per Juston Lewis of the Florida Times-Union, Johnson said he’s not about to take his role in the starting lineup for granted.
“I still got that chip on my shoulder, that chip is going to always stay on my shoulder,” Johnson said. “Everybody has to come out and prove their self. There’s no set spot. You still have to go out there and show it on the field.”
Johnson was quietly productive in Sunday’s loss to the Miami Dolphins, finishing tied for second on the team with nine total stops. There wasn’t a team in the NFL that surrendered more fantasy points to safeties last season than the Browns, and a lot of those fantasy points came by way of tackles.
In a week where many of the tackle prop numbers feel elevated, Johnson’s number may well be the most reasonable of the lot.
Nick Bolton (LB, KC) Under 8.5 Total Tackles Against the Cincinnati Bengals (-145)
Two years ago, Bolton sailed past 100 solo stops and averaged more than 10 total tackles a game. Last year, he missed more than half the year and finished with one-third the total stops he had in 2022. Entering a contract year, Bolton told Ed Easton of USA Today that last year’s injury-marred campaign was tough to endure.
“Not being able to use my whole left side. Man, I have my wrists messed up. I had a cast on it, my elbow, my left ankle, so I was trying to get through a little Humpty Dumpty all the way to the Super Bowl.” said Bolton. “So, I was trying to find a way to play, get out there, and give my team a chance to win. So that’s kind of what I was going through last year.”
Bolton battled an elbow injury over the summer, but he’s reportedly healthy now. Last week against the Baltimore Ravens, Bolton managed just seven total stops and three solos. Now the Chiefs host a Cincinnati Bengals team that struggled mightily to generate offense last week against the Patriots.
As much as this writer loathes picking the “Under” (rooting for things to not happen just ain’t as much fun), Bolton is going to be hard-pressed to hit nine stops in Week 2.
Trent McDuffie (CB, KC) Over 4.5 Total Tackles Against the Cincinnati Bengals (+105)
Right now, you’re probably wondering why, after just stating that the Bengals were a mess offensively a week ago, I’m picking McDuffie to add one stop to the four tackles he racked up last week covering Zay Flowers of the Baltimore Ravens.
I’m a paradox.
The Chiefs watched L’Jarius Sneed leave the team in free agency, but per ESPN’s Ben Solak that isn’t hard to do when you have a Plan B on the roster as talented as McDuffie.
“Here’s the problem with McDuffie: He’s too good at everything,” Solak said. “His prowess as a slot corner allowed the Chiefs to play Sneed outside from [sic] much of last season. From that nickel spot, McDuffie could cover or blitz or defend the run or take on a block or swing to deep safety, and he did it all with aplomb. But ideally, when a corner as talented as Sneed leaves so many snaps on the outside and a team has such a talented cover man in McDuffie on the roster, it bumps him outside and forgets about it.”
McDuffie is going to see a lot of Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday—especially if Tee Higgins sits again. If Week 1 was any indication, the Bengals are going to be playing from behind and forced to throw the ball. If that is indeed the case and Chase is the team’s only viable wideout, McDuffie will be a busy man.
Busy is good.
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Gary Davenport (“The Godfather of IDP”) is a 15-year veteran IDP and NFL writer and a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPSharks for more bad advice.
