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What Startup Strategy To Use For Dynasty Fantasy Football

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There are several general strategies to use in a dynasty startup. So what is the ideal dynasty startup strategy?

Productive struggle, win now, and balanced are the titles many give to the overall dynasty startup strategy options. What does each entail? When should you utilize each? Is one better than the others? Let’s talk through each and maybe decide on what is the ultimate dynasty startup strategy.

 

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Early dynasty startup strategy

To be honest, all three are similar in the first five or so rounds for the most part. Targeting young established cornerstone players is the key here and regardless of strategy, those are the players I’m chasing. League setup matters, but look at how veterans change versus younger players.

In 2023 half-ppr scoring, Garrett Wilson was WR32 while Cooper Kupp was WR39. Wilson was the WR5 on KeepTradeCut a year ago and now sits at WR6. Kupp fell from WR15 to WR30 on KTC. The main difference is the age and this should hammer home the value insulation of investing in young players compared to veterans (side note, be careful of KTC, but valuable to get a consensus view of players).

Some other advice in the early rounds is to understand positional value insulation. In a SuperFlex or 2 QB league, I like to trade up from my 2nd rounder to get 2 star QBs. I do that by trading picks in rounds 3 or 4 for ones in rounds 6 to 10. Why do it like this? Keeping rookie picks keeps flexibility while the value difference between players in these rounds is a lot less than the early players.

This means in many drafts you might only pick three times in the top 5 rounds. But if you leave a draft from like 1.08 with Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud, and Tank Dell, that feels like a good start and you’re about to be very busy. The players in Rounds 3 and 4 aren’t all that dissimilar from 5 through 8. Are Brandon Aiyuk and D.K. Metcalf all that different from George Pickens and Calvin Ridley?

While less advantageous, in a single QB league, you can do similar to get elite WRs. Imagine pairing Ja’Marr Chase and a CeeDee Lamb and the weekly upside there. Focus on QBs and WRs in SuperFlex and WRs in single QB, as they hold value much better than RBs, who have such a short shelf life, and that limits your flexibility to get into every strategy. One RB is okay, but that’s it early for me.

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Win Now Teams

Okay, let’s dive into “win now”. Why? I have no data on leagues folding but unless you know everyone in the league, it’s a big risk to not trying to win immediately. This type of team has a shorter shelf life for winning but you can usually find a couple-year window of title contention that’ll pay for dues while rebuilding later.

Older veterans are typically cheaper in startup drafts. Mike Evans and Keenan Allen are very productive veterans who you probably could get in rounds 7 and 8 in a SuperFlex league. Compare that with taking maybe Jayden Reed and George Pickens in those slots instead. You’ll sacrifice the long term but consider the veterans outscored the younger WRs by about 10 half-ppr points per game combined.

At least in leagues I’m in, those veterans are the fallers too, and the easiest way to get value above ADP. For IDP, this opens up drafts even more. While not discussed above, getting into round six and up is where IDPs start coming off the board in combined leagues in a more traditional scoring league setting.

By trying to win now, it’s easier to be more proactive on LBs and the veteran edges. Some teams might avoid LBs at the top since so much production is based on role over talent. Players like Khalil Mack and Bobby Wagner will be off some drafter’s boards but can be a huge value to the win-now dynasty startup strategy.

Finally, in the early rounds I mentioned avoiding trading rookie picks. Once committed to a win-now build, it’s worth selling rookie picks. I’d avoid selling picks beyond the upcoming (2024) season. This allows a pivot to rebuild if needed without having to try to get picks back from other managers. Other managers will target these picks so it’s an easy way to add multiple impact players.

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Productive Struggle

Productive struggle is a personal favorite of mine. Basically, the idea is to be BAD in the league’s first season to get the rookie 1.01 after the year. This can help set you up for the longer term to truly try and build a “dynasty” (though playoff single elimination makes it super challenging). We’ll run through some of this and a couple of helpful tips to implement such a plan.

First is, trying to get as many firsts in the following year’s draft. I like doing this after settling the QB position in SuperFlex and an alpha WR in a single QB. This helps accelerate the build into being a competitor in the league’s second season. Too many people get pick-obsessed and don’t ever leave the rebuild stage. Once you’re a solid team, keep in mind your rookie picks are late and less valuable.

Setting up a solid corps is super important with the picks. If you have a couple of solid QBs, a couple of good WRs, and a young TE with a few future firsts, that’s kind of the goal. Add in young edges/DL in IDP leagues and it’s a solid foundation to build a long-term contender with this dynasty startup strategy.

While the paragraph above is huge, notice what positions aren’t mentioned too. RBs, LBs, and DBs are not targets in this strategy, or at least not the ones who score points. If you ran this last year and grabbed some players like Kendre Miller, Tyjae Spears, Trenton Simpson, Drew Sanders, and Jordan Battle. Guys who project to score no points early.

Try to avoid scoring points from those spots and you’ll be more successful at losing. If you’re giving up a whole bunch of points there, think about how much easier it’ll be to lose. Now fast forward to potentially two starting RBs, two starting LBs, and a starting DB for 2024.

Finally, be active in the season. I know losing sucks and it’s hard to focus on a losing team, but it’s important. Playing the waiver wire can find helpful pieces in season. As contenders emerge, look at their injuries and target the players you want. Players on IR for the year can’t score points so it’s easy to buy them for a discount and get a productive player for next year.

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The Balanced Build

This one is essentially just walking the line between the above dynasty startup strategy options. You don’t want to be too old and sell off all your picks, but also not sacrifice performance for youth. Ultimately, it’s not easy to pull off but keeping as many rookie picks to push the chips in when you know you’re a contender is the easiest way to do this.

The main part of this one is to pull from both of the above. The core of my team is likely to be built like a productive struggle while targeting veterans into the more volatile assets like RB, LB, and DB. Those spots are the ones easiest to trust a waiver wire to find, as well as buy from another team. This also keeps a window of contention wide open for a while. A fine line but it can be done if patient.

Conclusion

There is no ultimate strategy. That’s the reason it’s laid out as starting the first few rounds without trading rookie picks and maximizing elite players. This way you can see what others are doing and see what values are falling to you. Maybe TJ Hockenson falls and you can lock up an elite TE late while helping you productive struggle, or old veterans do and you can go all in for a couple of years.

Like successful rookie drafters, the key is to go into the draft looking for the best players. See where the value is. If four other teams are productively struggling, don’t be the fifth. That will not make it easier for you to build, it’ll make win now easier. Don’t force anything and you’ll find your lane while you draft and enjoy the draft process so much more.

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