These tiered quarterback rankings should give you food for thought when drafting or shaping your dynasty rosters.
With the retirement of Tom Brady, it feels like an era change at the quarterback position. Today we will take a look at my top-10 quarterback rankings which have been done via tiers to help clarify when I think guys are really close.
I will be using these four tiers: Patrick Mahomes, elite passers, elite rushers, and elite upside. To summarize why they are in this order briefly:
- Mahomes is Mahomes. I don’t trust your rankings if he doesn’t top your QB rankings.
- Being able to pass at an elite level and not reliant on physical athleticism should age best.
- Elite rushing ability provides a fantastic floor and ceiling, which will surely help you win now. How will that style age, though? Will you get out on time? Can they become elite passers?
- These folks have shown the upside to being sorted into an above tier at some point. Can they prove they belong?
Tier One – the man, the myth, the legend:
Patrick Mahomes
No if, ands, or buts about it anymore — Patrick Mahomes (Super Bowl LVII MVP Patrick Mahomes to you) is in a tier of his own.
I will admit I started to waiver coming into 2022. Between Josh Allen putting the pressure on following back-to-back QB1 overall finishes and Mahomes losing Tyreek Hill to Miami, I waivered here. I was wrong. Nobody hangs with Patrick Mahomes. He is special.
With Mahomes, I truly believe we are watching the next legend of the game, a future first ballot hall of fame type guy. I mean, come on. Look at the picture above and tell me you don’t see a football version of the Michael Jordan “Jumpman” logo. LEGEND.
At his age, with 40-touchdown and 5,000+ passing yards upside year in and year out, there is no reason to get cute. Select Mahomes at the 1.01 and never look back!
Tier Two – Elite Passers
Josh Allen
Not being above Patrick Mahomes is no slight to this man. Josh Allen is a phenomenal QB in both real life and fantasy. If your league has any special premiums for rushing, like point-per-first down, for instance, then I can see a case for Allen being your guy with his added ability there but I still personally lean toward Mahomes.
Three straight seasons as a top-two fantasy quarterback is rather insane. Allen’s rushing floor with the still elite passing talent is just bonkers. This rushing ability, combined with his fantasy finishes, sets him at the top of my second tier of quarterbacks, and really probably deserves a tier of his own.
On the flip side, the dependence on his athleticism to reach the touchdown/yardage ceiling of Mahomes is what keeps him out of my tier one. I fear as Allen ages, this style is not as sustainable and will require him to take another step as a passer to keep pace with Mahomes.
That being said, in superflex start-ups, Allen is the easy lock at 1.02 overall.
Joe Burrow
Joe Brrrrr, Joe Cool, Joe Sheisty, what is there not to love about Joe Burrow?!?!?!?!
This man is so cool off the field and one heck of a quarterback on it. Posting back-to-back seasons ~ with 35 touchdowns and 4,500 yards is BEAUTIFUL fantasy production.
Not having the rushing upside that Allen possesses keeps Burrow at number three for me. But his game’s sustainability and amazing young WR duo keep him “same-tier.” Long-term, having little to no reliance on his athleticism as a true “pocket-passer” makes me more confident that Burrow can sustain this production well into his late 30s.
Burrow is an easy choice before considering any position players in superflex leagues. If available at pick 1.03 or later, he should be your selection.
Justin Herbert
Right there dueling with Burrow is this fellow young gun-slinger.
Herbert showed us his insane passing upside in 2021, putting a 38 touchdown 5,000+ passing yard season to his name. You may wonder, these marks are higher career numbers than Burrow, so why doesn’t Herbert get the edge?
Herbert’s surrounding cast of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler, in my opinion, is not quite as talented on the whole as Burrow’s Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon. On top of talent, the wide receivers are significantly older and less likely to maintain production year after year.
Pair the surrounding cast with a down (though injured) 2022 posting just 25 touchdown passes, and I give Burrow the nod head-to-head.
Still, Herbert rounds out this amazing quarterback tier and deserves to be selected before any non-QB in superflex leagues.
Tier Three – Elite Rushers
Jalen Hurts
What an amazing season Hurts had. Talk about a year three breakout.
His rushing talent surprises no one after his sophomore season 784 yards and 10 touchdowns. This year he followed that up with an exciting 760 yards and 13 touchdowns, giving him both a safe weekly fantasy floor and enormous upside.
What puts Hurts at the top of this tier for me is the surrounding cast that should be around for quite a while. A.J. Brown coming to town to team up with Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedart helped bring Hurt’s game to the next level. We saw a huge efficiency jump with 600+ more yards and six more touchdowns, on 5% better accuracy in not that many more attempts.
What’s crazy is at just 460 pass attempts this season, there is still plenty of room for volume growth to take his fantasy performances higher. I am interested in Hurts in the mid-first round of start-up drafts considering only Justin Jefferson before him for non-QBs.
Lamar Jackson
Back-to-back injury-shortened seasons have some folks low on Lamar Jackson.
Do not overthink it. This former MVP is still an elite asset to build your team around. Regarding rushing quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson has already proven himself to be one of the greatest of all time. Back-to-back 1000+ yard rushing seasons followed by two 750+ twelve-game seasons that were pacing over 1000 is just insanity.
Contract/landing spot uncertainty is the tie-breaker keeping Lamar below Hurts for me here. Even more so than Hurts, Lamar’s untapped potential as a passer is wild, attempting over 400 attempts once at 401 in 2019.
We saw an extremely efficient 36-touchdown season in 2019. Will a new offensive coordinator/coach and or surrounding cast unlock Jackson? I think it is very possible and will be selecting Lamar anywhere mid-first, considering again just Jefferson before him as a non-QB.
Justin Fields
ELECTRIC! Justin Fields has IT. I can’t define it, but man, does he have it.
It was a shockingly glum start to the year with how little Fields was doing really anything. The Bears weren’t having him pass often, nor were they running him a lot. But when that changed, Fields looked like an absolute force and powered many fantasy squads’ success this season.
Despite the slow start, constantly under pressure behind a brutal offensive line and throwing the ball to a probably league-worst pass-catching group. Fields still pulled a VERY impressive QB7 fantasy season thanks to becoming just the third quarterback in NFL history to post a 1000 rushing-yard season.
What really gets me excited about Fields is that this elite rushing upside is something he added to his arsenal. How Fields really won in college and what got him drafted in the first round was his success as not a runner but an elite passer.
We haven’t seen this in his NFL game yet, but with huge draft capital and spending cap, the Bears are prime positioned to help Fields resurface this ability. By providing a stronger line and receiving group over the next two off-seasons, I expect a major uptick in his passing outputs.
At my QB7, I do not think Fields has finished ascending. Expect him to continue to climb rankings in 2023. Much like the other elite rushers I am taking Fields mid-first of start-ups and considering only Justin Jefferson as a non-QB potentially before him.
Tier Four – Elite Upside
Trevor Lawrence
Sunshine! Ronnie Bass from Remember the Titans grew up to become Trevor Lawrence.
Widely viewed as one of the greatest quarterback prospects of all time, Lawrence came into the league with godly expectations. These were, of course, not met in year one during Urban Meyer’s ultra-successful stint in the NFL.
In year two, however, Doug Pederson came to town, and this team and the outlook on Lawrence are trending way back up. With the scheme change and even just the addition of some good, not great weapons in Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones, we saw Lawrence take a big step.
Leading Jacksonville to the playoffs with 4000+ yards and 25 touchdowns on 66% completions with that supporting cast. Coaching system continuity with Pederson staying around and the team adding a true weapon at wide receiver in Calvin Ridley, and now Lawrence is in a prime position to take another leap.
I expect to value Lawrence in that elite passing tier with Allen, Burow, and Herbert next off-season and thus am comfortable taking Lawrence in the mid to late 1st round. The only non-QB players I may consider first are Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase.
Kyler Murray
He has bad body language and a pouty face on the sidelines. Nobody wants to coach him, plays badly on Call of Duty release weekends. The sheer amount of weird hate Kyler Murray receives is baffling to me.
The team rewarded him with a monster contract and is looking for a coaching staff to take them and Murray to the next level. What is not to like about that situation? On the fantasy end, we are talking about a guy who has been a QB1 in ppg every single season he has been in the league.
Murray could easily be placed into the elite rushers tier, and if you want to group him there, I wouldn’t argue with you. Personally, following a 2022 torn ACL, I am dropping him down just a smidge until I see a full return of that rushing upside.
Also worth noting with Murray is we have seen plenty of flashes as a passer. This part of his game lacks consistency, but I would not be shocked in the slightest to see him break out as a passer with a new coach and healthy WR core in 2023.
I am looking to grab Kyler Murray in the late first and on. Also, in existing leagues, this is my favorite “buy-low” target to send trade offers for early this off-season.
Deshaun Watson
Just as I expect to move the other two quarterbacks to a different tier after 2023, I fully expect the same for Watson.
Starting his career with three and a half straight top-5 fantasy seasons is incredible. But the past couple of seasons cannot be ignored. Deshaun Watson looked rusty in 2022, as expected after missing 2021, but does he ever get back to the elite quarterback he was? I think it is likely, but nothing is guaranteed, so here we are.
Given his last full season of 2020 stats, if Watson bounces back in 2023 to the tune of 30+ touchdowns and 4000+ passing yards, I will be placing him in the elite passer tier.
End of the first-round start-up target for me and an easy second-round smash. Like Murray, Watson is a favorite trade target of mine if you think the manager may want out. Try sending a mid-first+ and see what happens.
Honorable mentions for the #10 spot: Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, CJ Stroud, and Bryce Young
Thank you for reading! You can find all of my articles on my IDP Guys author page. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter for my rookie model and more at @DynastyBison, and follow @IDPGuys to keep up to date!
