The AFC South is filled with all kinds of different IDP outlooks. Promising rookies, free-agency additions, and returning studs are here to help to guide your teams to victory. Here are the players to target and the ones to watch throughout the season.
Houston Texans IDP Outlook
Defensive Line/Edge
Will Anderson Jr.
Head Coach Demeco Ryans is bringing a new 4-3 scheme with him to Houston that will focus on an aggressive, attacking front seven. Leading that attack will be the third-overall pick, Will Anderson Jr. A disruptive force with excellent speed, he finished his career at Alabama with 204 tackles and 34.5 sacks. Anderson should be the first IDP taken in rookie drafts as he embarks on a DROY award-winning season.
Jonathan Greenard
Greenard showed potential in 2021 with 33 tackles and 8 sacks in 12 games only to disappoint in 2022 with 16 tackles and 1.5 sacks across eight games. In all fairness, he missed nine games with a calf injury, but the lack of production left many managers with a sour taste in their mouths. Look for a bounce-back season as he enters the final year of his rookie contract, and is hungry for a big payday.
Jerry Hughes
Hughes led the Houston defense last year with nine sacks while only playing 59% of snaps. Look for him to keep the pressure on Greenard as the two fight for the starting position opposite of Anderson. Expect Hughes to have a solid rotational role, with some sack upside should an injury occur. His fantasy value isn’t high enough to draft unless he becomes the starter.
Sheldon Rankins
Rankins signed with Houston on a one-year, $10.5 million contract after spending the last two years with the Jets. While in New York, he averaged 37 tackles, three sacks, and a 56% snap share. He will likely be a block eater and run stuffer with low fantasy value.
Maliek Collins
A solid rotational piece of the Houston interior line, Collins had a career-best 37 tackles in 2022 while adding 3.5 sacks. Like Rankins, he will be a run-stuffing, block eater with little value in fantasy.
Linebacker
Christian Harris
After a hamstring slowed the beginning of his rookie season, Harris became a starter by Week 7 and never looked back. He amassed 74 tackles, one sack, one interception, and one forced fumble. He played nearly 100% of the snaps during the final six games of the season. This year he is projected to be Houston’s top linebacker and will greatly improve his stat production.
Denzel Perryman
It’s worth keeping an eye on who wins the full-time start next to Harris. Perryman joins the Texans after spending his first eight seasons in the AFC West with the Chargers and Raiders. A stout run defender, he had his best season in 2021 finishing sixth in tackles with 154. Issues with staying healthy are what limit his production to around the 60-80 tackles range each season.
Christian Kirksey
An argument could be made that Kirksey is a better all-around linebacker and his ADP should be higher than Perryman’s. Not without his own injury concerns, he did start all 17 games last year while logging 124 tackles across 1141 snaps. If Kirksey starts the whole season, a similar production can be expected. The uncertainty between him and Perryman could end up limiting both of their values and if a rotation occurs, they both will be waiver fodder in shallow leagues.
Cory Littleton
At this stage in his career, Littleton offers little value outside of an injury fill-in, and could actually find himself as a cut candidate.
Henry To’oTo’o
2024 feels like the year To’oTo’o could become a starter for the Texans. Stuck in a crowded linebacker room, the fifth-round rookie will likely sit and learn this year.
Defensive Back
Jalen Pitre
Pitre burst onto the scene last year leading both the Texans, and all defensive backs with 147 tackles. He also led the league with 19 missed tackles. He would need to at least repeat his rookie production to justify his current ADP as the overall S2. He has a stronger supporting cast and a more aggressive front seven in front of him this year, which could limit his tackles opportunities. If he improves on last year’s 11.4% missed tackle rate and keeps up the big plays, IDP managers can expect Pitre to be one of the top defensive backs once again in 2023.
Derek Stingley Jr.
As a rookie, Stingley started the first nine games before a hamstring injury sidelined him for the rest of the season. His 43 tackles would have projected up to 81 if he had kept the same pace, which would have been top 10 amongst cornerbacks. He added five pass breakups, one interception, and one sack in 2022. Expect another strong season for Stingley heading into his second year.
Desmond King
Playing the nickel/slot role, King is terribly undervalued in all fantasy formats. In 2021 his 93 tackles ranked second to only Kenny Moore amongst cornerbacks. 2022 saw King again in the top three with 89 stops. He has at least two interceptions each year he has been in Houston. King should once again be a hidden stud with similar production this year.
Jimmie Ward
Ward’s inability to stay healthy limits his appeal. He is more of a late option in deeper leagues that require more than two starting safeties.
Indianapolis Colts IDP Outlook
Defensive Line/Edge
Deforest Buckner
For seven years, Buckner has been the definition of consistent. In 2022 he had eight sacks, 22 QB hits, and a career-high 74 tackles. His career averages are 7.5 sacks, 20 QB hits, and 66 tackles. There is no player that is more automatic than Buckner. He is still one of the top interior linemen in the league and is even worth starting in leagues without DT designations. Expect 2023 to be business as usual for his fantasy production.
Kwity Paye
If not for some injuries in 2022, Paye was heading for a breakout season. His 45 tackles and six sacks in 12 games had him on pace for 64 tackles and 8.5 sacks. In 2023, Paye will once again look to benefit from playing next to one of the best DT duos in the league. A healthy season puts him back into the breakout picture.
Grover Stewart
Since DeForest Buckner joined the Colts in 2020, Stewart has quietly been a solid option at defensive tackle. He set career highs in 2022 with 70 tackles and four sacks, establishing himself as one of the league’s best run stuffers and a top-10 fantasy option at defensive tackle. Look for Stewart’s value to keep rising as he enters the last year of his current contract.
Dayo Odeyingbo
Odeyingbo spent much of his rookie season recovering from an Achilles injury. The Colts wisely eased the rookie into games, never playing him more than 27 snaps. Playing behind Yannick Ngakoue last year, Odeyingbo was able to grab five sacks and 31 stops. Look for him to outplay his ADP and sneak into a full-time starter after Ngakoue’s departure. We could see the Colts produce two breakout edge rushers in 2023.
Samson Ebukam
Ebukam averages 37 tackles and 4 sacks per year. He is more of a rotational edge rusher and doesn’t hold much fantasy value.
Adetomiwa Adebawore
Standing at 6’2 280 lbs and with a freakish 4.49 40-yard dash, Adebawore could find himself moving all over the line of scrimmage looking for mismatches. Barring injuries, expect him in a backup role with the potential to have a decent game or two.
Linebacker
Zaire Franklin
Franklin came out of nowhere to set the franchise record for tackles in a season with 167. He also added three sacks and a pair of forced fumbles on his way to being a top-five fantasy linebacker. After setting the bar so high in 2022, he is set for some regression this season and healthy Shaq Leonard could eat into his tackle production. Still, the potential is there for another top-10 finish.
Shaquille Leonard
2022 was a lost season for Leonard who played a total of 74 snaps across three games. When healthy he has LB1 potential, but he has never been able to duplicate his rookie season. Managers have been chasing those 163 tackles, seven sacks, four forced fumbles, and two interceptions since 2019. With all reports pointing to a healed Leonard, managers can nervously expect a top-10 finish, or a dumpster fire should he find himself plagued by injury again.
EJ Speed
If handcuffing linebackers were as popular as handcuffing running backs, then Speed would be the first backup taken. He has shown flashes when thrust into action due to injuries. Speed’s value is limited to moderate as the third LB on the Colts. Should an injury occur, his value will skyrocket.
Defensive Back
Kenny Moore
After recording 102 tackles, four interceptions, and one sack in 2021, Moore was on a similar pace in 2022 before an ankle injury ended his season after 12 weeks. With the unpredictability of the corner position, he still projects as a solid starter with a high upside.
Julian Blackmon
After three mediocre years at free safety, Blackmon is making the switch to strong safety. Although not a huge deal, it does put him up near the line of scrimmage more which usually equates to more tackle opportunities. Heading into a contract year, Blackmon needs to hold off Nick Cross and have a strong season to earn a big payday. Expect a decent volume output for Blackmon this year with some S2 upside.
Rodney Thomas II
Thomas earned playing time in 2022 due to injuries, and never really relinquished the job. At the same time, he didn’t exactly stuff the stat sheets with 52 tackles but his four interceptions did catch the eye of fantasy managers. Coming in as the starter in 2023, Thomas will need to keep up the big plays while increasing his tackle numbers to be fantasy relevant.
Nick Cross
Cross looks to be the odd man out as the third safety on the team. It will take an injury for him to have significant value this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars IDP Outlook
Defensive Line/Edge
Josh Allen
Allen had another solid season in 2022 amassing 57 tackles, seven sacks, and 22 QB hits. He also forced four fumbles, recovered two, and returned one for a touchdown against the Titans to propel Jacksonville into the playoffs. Although he had fewer tackles and sacks than the previous year, his big plays helped make up the difference in fantasy. He gives you a solid floor, has big-play potential, and has extra financial motivation this season. Expect an even better year from Allen in 2023 as he looks to secure a new contract.
Travon Walker
Starting out in 2022 as the first-overall pick, Walker didn’t quite live up to the draft capital. He started hot in Week 1 with 3 tackles, 1 sack, and 1 interception, then looked like a rookie the rest of the season. He finished the year with 49 tackles and 3.5 sacks while playing 77% of snaps. It’s unlikely he ever lives up to his high draft status, but he has shown a solid floor with the potential to cause turnovers. For his second season in the NFL, we can expect similar tackles numbers with a higher sack total. We could actually see Walker and Josh Allen end the year with nearly identical stats.
DaVon Hamilton
Hamilton gave us 56 tackles and 2.5 sacks as a powerful run-stuffer. He earned a three-year contract extension worth $34.5 million. In DT-required leagues, Hamilton is a solid option. He doesn’t have the big-play upside, but he does offer a decent tackle floor for bye weeks or if you need an injury replacement.
Roy Robertson-Harris
Robertson-Harris also earned a three-year extension worth $30 million after setting career highs in tackles (45), sacks (3), and QB hits (12). Although his best seasons have been since he signed with Jacksonville in 2021, his fantasy value isn’t very high.
K’Lavon Chaisson
Drafted 20th overall in 2020, Chaisson has been a bust. His playing time has decreased every year he has been in the league and bottomed to 18% of snaps in 2022. Even when on the field, he hasn’t been very productive. He is not a fantasy option at this time.
Linebacker
Foyesade Oluokun
Oluokun has led the NFL in tackles each of the last two years and doing so on two different teams. Over the previous three years, he has totaled 493 tackles, 7 sacks, 7 forced fumbles, 3 fumbles recovered, 5 interceptions, 20 tackles for a loss, and 25 QB hits. Right now, he sits as the LB3 behind Roquan Smith and Nick Bolton. A strong case could be made that he should be the LB1. Don’t overthink it, Oluokun should be elite once again in 2023.
Devin Lloyd
Finishing 2022 with 115 tackles, three interceptions, and recovering two fumbles, Lloyd had a solid rookie season. There were some hiccups that saw him benched in favor of fellow rookie Chad Muma for a few games, but Lloyd did regain his starting status. Lloyd showed that he could be a playmaker and generate enough tackles to be an LB2. Playing next to a tackling juggernaut like Oluokun does limit his ceiling a bit, but we still expect another solid season in 2023.
Chad Muma
Muma had a lot of predraft hype amongst IDP enthusiasts in 2022 after registering 142 tackles, 1.5 sacks, and two touchdowns off of three interceptions. All hope was lost once the Jaguars drafted him two rounds after taking Devin Lloyd. In all seriousness, Muma showed some flashes that he can be a viable fantasy option when given the chance. In his two starts, he managed 20 tackles and 1.5 sacks. Right now, Muma’s value is on hold until an injury or some other unforeseen circumstance allows him significant playing time.
Defensive Back
Rayshawn Jenkins
In his sixth NFL season, Jenkins finally broke out with 116 tackles, 12 pass breakups, and three picks including one returned for a touchdown. That production feels a little fluky and should be considered his ceiling and not his floor. Still, expect Jenkins to produce well enough to fall in the DB2/3 range.
Tyson Campell
After hitting the 70-tackle mark in each of his first two seasons, Campbell is quickly becoming one of the more consistent corners in the league. Last year he added three interceptions, 15 pass deflections, and returned one of his two fumble recoveries for a touchdown. Expect another similar season this year and look for another top-15 finish in cornerback-required leagues.
Andre Cisco
Entering 2022 as a starter, Cisco produced a solid sophomore season with 73 tackles, one sack, and three picks. It’s difficult to envision him improving on those stats playing a deep safety role, and being surrendered by stellar linebackers and Jenkins playing up in the box. We can expect another solid season, but a huge breakout season seems unlikely.
Antonio Johnson
2023 is shaping up to be a learning season for Johnson. In the short-term, it would take an injury for him to see a significant snap share. Long-term, he has the potential to be a high-production box safety. Only time will tell.
Tennessee Titans IDP Outlook
Defensive Line/Edge
Jeffery Simmons
Over the last two seasons, Simmons has emerged as one of the top options at DT. If your league doesn’t use DT, he still stacks up as a solid DL. A disruptive force up front who is good for 50 tackles, and about eight sacks. With the addition of Arden Key and the return of Harold Landry, expect Simmons to keep producing as a top-five DT this season.
Harold Landry
Landry had a breakout year in 2021 that saw him collect 75 tackles, 22 QB hits, and 12 sacks. He would follow that up by missing the entire 2022 season due to a torn ACL in practice before the season started. With an entire year to recover, look for Landry to get back to his dominating ways. A 70-tackle, double-digit sack season is fully within grasp.
Denico Autry
At 33 years old, Autry is still one of the more versatile linemen in the league. He is an underrated fantasy producer who has averaged 30 tackles and eight sacks over the last three years. Look for those averages to continue as he shows no signs of slowing down.
Arden Key
A journeyman who has found some minor success over the last two seasons averaging 25 tackles and 5.5 sacks. Expect him in a rotational role with some waiver wire potential.
Rashad Weaver
Playing 58% of the snaps last year Weaver showed some flashes with 5.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, 15 QB hits, and 27 tackles. Similar production can be expected even with Arden Key potentially eating some of his playing time.
Linebackers
Azeez Al-Shaair
Stuck behind Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw, Al-Shaair showed in 2021 what he could do when given the opportunity. That season he started 13 games and played 89% of the snaps while grabbing 102 tackles, two sacks, two fumble recoveries, and one interception. This year’s biggest breakout/sleeper candidate, he’s set up for a huge season as the top option for the Titans.
Monty Rice
Over the final five games last season, Rice averaged nine tackles per game. If we get the same type of production this year, that’s over 150 tackles. 150 tackles seem high for the third-year linebacker, but not wholly impossible. Realistically the Titans could have two sleepers starting at linebacker this year, with Al-Shaair being the most coveted. Rice looks to be a sneaky sleeper/breakout pick this year with LB2/3 potential.
Jack Gibbens
Gibbens is worth mentioning as someone to watch if an injury thrusts him into a starting role, otherwise, he holds no value.
Defensive Backs
Kevin Byard
One of the most undervalued safeties in fantasy, Byard hasn’t missed a start in the last six seasons. During that time, he has averaged 95 tackles and 5 interceptions. You would be hard-pressed to find a more consistent safety that will be a lock to finish as a DB2 with a top-10 upside.
Amani Hooker
Health has been Hooker’s most significant issue. When he is on the field, he projects at 80 tackles and an interception or two.
Roger McCreary
McCreary was selected in the second round of the 2022 draft, and became an immediate starter, racking up 84 tackles, eight deflected passes, and one interception. He was targeted 108 times and allowed 73 completions. Those are numbers IDP managers like to hear. More targets equal more chances for tackles and interceptions. Expect McCreary to be targeted early and often on his way to another top-10 finish at cornerback in 2023.
Kristian Fulton
Missing 10 games in the last two seasons keeps Fulton from being locked in as a fantasy starter. When healthy, his production isn’t far behind McCreary’s. 2022 full-season projections would have 74 tackles compared to McCreary’s 84. With health being an issue, Fulton could make for a decent streaming option.
Thank you for checking out my 2023 Divisional IDP Outlooks article! You can read all of my articles on my IDP Guys author page. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @shawn8386 and @IDPGuys (we have offense, too), and please consider becoming a subscriber!
