The Elijah Moore train officially left the station in mid-2021. This IR trip provides an off-season buy window before reaching his final destination: Stardom City.
Prior to the NFL
Prospect Profile
- Day One/Two pick – 34th overall
- Early Declare – Junior
- Breakout Age – 19.4
- Dominator – 41.9%
- Yards per Route Run (Y/RR) – 2.75 average, 3.85 peak
Loving the results so far of my WR prospect model tweaks
— Dynasty Bison (@DynastyBison) January 2, 2022
This is my '18-'21 top 10 WR prospects
Strictly college data/draft cap, no NFL stats
Special thanks to @DynastySFlex for pointing me in the direction of factoring in Y/RR, definitely helped me shave some duds pic.twitter.com/x9ExpN2a8V
Draft Capital
To the Jets! Moore landed in New York with fellow high expectations pick, QB Zach Wilson to form the Jets’ duo of the future. As far as landing spots themselves go, I am never too concerned at WR. Though, I will say the rookie QB tempered my Moore expectations for year one. In the long run, however, I have found that talent eventually wins out over the situation.
Recent examples, A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson landed on two of the NFL’s most run-heavy teams, which has been a complete non-issue toward their success. What I do care about in my model is WHEN in the draft they were taken. Why? Because an overwhelming majority of high-performing WRs come from the first three rounds of the draft.
As draft capital goes, 34th overall is excellent — pretty much as close to being a first-round pick as possible without being one. Clearly, the Jets wanted their guy, as this was regarded by many as a deep WR class and they could have easily waited longer on a WR (especially after signing a top FA WR, Corey Davis).
Performance
When we take a peek into the performance metrics at Ole Miss, it is easy to see why Moore got the Jets excited:
- Moore pitched in 36 receptions his first year on campus while competing with D.K. Metcalf & A.J. Brown!!!
- Broke out officially sophomore year at age 19.4. (Anything under 20 is fantastic.)
- Flexed big-time year three posting a dominator rate of 41.9%.
Elijah Moore would look good as a @nyjets. Some stats and ranks among draft class:
— Tommy Griffenkranz (@therealtgriff) April 24, 2021
1,193 YDS (2nd)
REC% 85.1 (2nd)
YAC 505 (4th)
Y/RR 3.85 6th)
Missed Tackles Forced 18 (4th)
Contested Catches 11 (3rd)#jets #nfl #NFLDraft
pic.twitter.com/uKNitLcTqv
As seen above, Moore scored very well in one of my new favorite metrics, yards per route run (Y/RR). His peak college season weighed in at 3.85 and college average at 2.75. While I have not found much direct correlation between future success as the Y/RR continues to increase.
I have, however, seen that most often top WRs performed above a 2.5 in both categories, so I set my threshold there which Moore clears with flying colors!
Rookie Season
Overview
- QB Proof – Touchdowns from four separate QBs
- Target Share % – 6+ targets in 9 of his first 11 games
- YPRR – 1.75 despite slow start / untimely injury
Seemingly, from the very minute that Moore took the field as a Jet absolutely electric reviews began pumping out of the NY media during training camp.
- “Moore looks like the best player on the field”
- “Elijah Moore unstoppable in the red-zone”
- “Sky is the limit for Moore”
https://twitter.com/PowerHourSam/status/1423322371386220548?s=20
Early Struggles
Everyone who follows fantasy saw the camp hype and cranked the expectations level up to 11 for this rookie! Unfortunately, we were met with the tragedy of a Week 1 performance consisting of four targets with one reception for negative three yards……
Similarly, the next five games went by and Zach Wilson struggles mightily while Moore’s snap shares went down after Week 2. In addition, he picked up a concussion — which we always hate to see — and then we are left to hang our hats on ” well he earned a good chunk of targets in most of these games, so that’s nice to see”.
The Breakout
After that, we entered Week 8. Wilson is out, and BLAM — We get to watch Moore light up defenses like the star that he is! First off, we saw a target consistency of 6+ targets in the next six games (two 10+). Second, while Wilson was out in Weeks 8-11, we saw Moore casually catch his first four career touchdowns from not one or two, but THREE different backup quarterbacks. #QBproof
Elijah Moore's last four games:
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 24, 2021
* 6 catches, 67 yards
* 7 catches, 84 yards, 2 TD
* 3 catches, 44 yards, 1 TD
* 8 catches, 141 yards, 1 TD
The Jets found themselves a keeper at WR. pic.twitter.com/QU53cavDoK
Week 12 came around and Wilson made his return as a changed man, sending targets Moore’s way left and right for weeks of 8 and 12 targets. YES!!!!!
The Cooldown
After that, this red hot streak came to an unfortunate end following Week 13’s quad injury. Moore finished the final five weeks of the regular season sitting on the IR.
Despite the horribly slow start (that I mainly attribute to Wilson), Moore managed a very respectable 1.75 YPRR by PlayerProfiler’s count. When analyzing YPRR as a predictive measure for future fantasy production, I generally look for a minimum of 1.5. Anything greater than two is future stud territory.
Most important to note when looking at Moore’s case is context. The difference between his early and mid-season production was night and day. Without the IR trip, I am fairly certain Moore overcomes the early season inefficiency and pushes towards that two plus number.
Acquire Elijah Moore
Why Now?
Training camp 2022 is when I believe this window slams shut! The NY media hype machine will start up, Twitter propaganda will run wild, and Elijah Moore’s game will shine come Fall.
What Do I Send?
No Amon-Ra, No Problem
Thank you for the read! Please remember to follow for more content via Twitter @DynastyBison @IDPGuys as well as check out my writer’s page & the IDP Guys site.
