The AFC East IDP outlook for players is all over the map. Rookies are entering the field and veterans have moved on from the field. Here are the players to watch and then some of the eventual winners to have on your dynasty IDP rosters.
Buffalo Bills AFC East IDP Outlook
Defensive Line/Edge
The returning players of significance in my AFC East IDP outlook include Greg Rousseau, Von Miller, Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, and Shaq Lawson.
Rousseau is coming into year three and primed to continue his meteoric rise in IDP leagues. As a rookie, he hit 50 tackles and four sacks and improved the sacks to eight in 2022 while dropping to 37 tackles. While the Bills employ a rotation, Rousseau played two-thirds of his snaps on passing downs and generated pressure on 14% of his passing snaps. His ceiling is capped by the Bills’ rotation but 2022 feels very repeatable with room for growth.
Miller played a similar role to Rousseau and posted similar stats as well. Miller totaled 21 tackles and 8 sacks on 450 total snaps, including 69% of his snaps on passing downs. His pressure rate was 14.5%, and despite limited snaps, he continued to be a solid IDP asset. Just like Rousseau, Miller’s ceiling is capped but a repeat performance should be expected
Oliver continues to post similar stats year over year, as he’s been between 33 and 43 tackles each of his 4 seasons. He’s also been between 2.5 and 5 sacks in each season, making him a solid if unspectacular DT. Oliver can easily hit these numbers again, with upside in the pass rush category.
Jones is a block eater and run stuffer and Lawson looks to be a backup and will not have significant impact barring injuries. Based on 2022, the outlook of injury fill-in looks to be promising.
Leonard Floyd will be a surprise starter for many IDP rosters
The newcomer to the Bills’ edge group is Leonard Floyd. After spending his last three years with the Los Angeles Rams, Floyd signed a one-year deal worth up to $9 million. Floyd continued his productive career with three years of nine or more sacks and 55 or more total tackles. As a likely rotational/third-edge player, those stats are likely to fall off a bit. No pass rusher played as many passing snaps as Floyd, he likely sees 75% of his 2022 snaps and hopefully only loses around that much production (~7 sacks, 42 tackles).
Linebacker
The returning players of significance for my AFC East IDP outlook would be Matt Milano, Tyrel Dodson, Terrel Bernard, and AJ Klein.
Milano returns to Buffalo for his seventh season and is likely locked in for at least two future years as well. Coming off his first Pro Bowl appearance, Milano seems poised to duplicate or improve on his 2022. His 2022 season fell just shy of 100 tackles at 99, along with 3 INTs, 1.5 sacks, 2 fumbles recovered, and a TD. With the departure of Tremaine Edmunds, there’s a possibility of increased production.
Dodson, Bernard, and Klein will compete with 2023 third-rounder Dorian Williams for the departed Edmunds role. In just 13 games Edmunds posted 102 tackles, and his role is wide-open. Dodson, Bernard, and Klein all made a start in his place and the Bills still chose Williams, so long term it feels likely the role is his. It wouldn’t be surprising if all have playable weeks and get starts as an open competition into the regular season. Keep an eye out for a camp battle article in August on this job.
Defensive Back
The returning players of significance for this AFC East IDP outlook are safeties Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Damar Hamlin, and cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Taron Johnson.
Poyer and Hyde seem poised to return as the Bills starting safeties for the seventh year. Poyer has hit 90 or more tackles in his six seasons where he played more than 12 games, along with forcing an average of five turnovers. Hyde returns from a serious neck injury, but the previous three were all 70+ tackle years, and his fill-in posted 91 in 2022. Both should return to their old ways assuming good health.
White is another Bill hoping for better health in 2023, as he’s only played 17 combined games in his prior two seasons. With a return to better health, a bounce back to at least his 2020 totals of 57 tackles, 3 INTs, and 11 passes defended feels very attainable.
Johnson, as the Bills’ slot CB, continues to post strong yearly tackle totals. at least 76 tackles in his three seasons as a starter, with multiple 90+ campaigns. He’s also snagged an INT each year as well as seven or more passes defended each year and feel likely to continue in 2023.
The newcomer worth watching is safety Taylor Rapp. Both Rapp and returning reserve Hamlin are unlikely to have much utility barring injury. Hamlin hit 91 tackles filling in for Hyde but is returning from his own serious injury and will be so awesome to see him take the field in Week 1. As for Rapp, he’s had three 90+ tackle years and is another option if Hyde and/or Hamlin can’t stay healthy.
Miami Dolphins IDP Outlook
Defensive Line/Edge
The returning players of significance in this AFC East IDP outlook include Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, Christian Wilkins, and Zach Sieler.
Chubb returns for his first full season in Miami. His production has deteriorated in each of his three healthy seasons. His best year was as a rookie with 60 tackles and 12 sacks but 2022 was just 39 tackles and 8 sacks. I expect his totals to improve if healthy in a full season and familiar scheme. However, his ceiling is likely similar to his rookie year totals at this point.
Phillips is a burgeoning star edge rusher. Take a read of this in-depth article to see why, but his 2022 was just 61 tackles and 7 sacks. With his elite-level pressures (his first two seasons are near Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett level, minus the actual sack production), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a 15-sack year in 2023 and a top-5 level edge performance in 2023.
Wilkins has quietly become a fantastic IDP DT. His sack totals the last two seasons have only been right around 4, but he’s averaging nearly 95 tackles per year in that time. His floor is extremely high, and with two solid guys coming off the edge, the potential for additional sacks gives him room to grow in 2023 with a solid floor.
Sieler continues to fly under the radar as the fourth-best player on his own DL. Sieler totaled 70 tackles and 3.5 sacks in 2022 as a full-time starter. He probably doesn’t have a significantly higher ceiling than this but 2023 can be a repeat of his 2022 numbers.
Linebacker
The returning players of significance in my AFC East IDP outlook include Jerome Baker, Channing Tindall, and Andrew Van Ginkel.
Baker is likely the best option, as he’s hit 100+ tackles in three of his last four years, as well as four or more sacks in three straight. Will 2023 see a strong showing under a new coordinator? The team doesn’t have much besides their starters so it should be another good tackle and sack season for Baker.
Tindall and Van Ginkel are potential injury replacements, which may come in handy with new addition David Long‘s injury history.
Long joins the Dolphins’ linebacker unit.
The newcomer to the linebacker group is a former Tennessee Titan David Long.
After playing his first four years with the Titans, Long signed a two-year $11 million contract with the Dolphins. He should make an immediate impact on IDP rosters as long as he’s healthy. Long has been an elite tackle machine when healthy the last two seasons. Long has 161 tackles in his last 22 healthy games the last two seasons, just over seven per game. Can he stay healthy and will he outperform Elandon Roberts’ 107 tackles? Per game, I think so, but don’t believe he’ll play enough games to eclipse 107.
Defensive Back
The returning players of significance in my AFC East IDP outlook include Safeties Jevon Holland and Brandon Jones as well as Cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Kader Kohou.
Holland will reprise his role as starting FS, which in 2022 led to 96 tackles, 2 INTs, and 7 passes defended. Despite the less-than-ideal deep alignment, Holland continues to post strong yearly numbers. Holland is a solid bet to post similar production, though his tackle total may fall off a bit.
Jones is a bit of a question mark. If he wins the SS role in camp is a fantastic IDP bet to make. In 2021, his last healthy year, he posted 79 tackles, 5 sacks, as well as one each INT, FF, FR, and pass defended. Another year like that would be fantastic for anyone taking him late in drafts.
Howard is a strong candidate to have a strong bounce-back year with Vic Fangio in town. He’s been around 50 tackles in each of his last 3 years, but his INTs have fallen off from 10 to 5 to 1, and a bounce back there would really help his IDP production. Similarly, passes defended have gone from 20 to 16 to 12. A return to even 2021 totals would be a great year.
Kohou was a fantastic story in 2022, and as the starting slot CB his tackles should be similar or even improve with a locked-in role. Kohou hit 72 despite only starting 13 games in 2022. He also could well see improvement from his one INT. His 10 passes defended are a strong baseline for 2023 as well.
The Dolphins make a big splash by adding Jalen Ramsey, DeShon Elliott, and Cam Smith.
Ramsey had a career-high 88 tackles, 12 passes defended, and 4 INTs in 2022. While the scheme change may lead to a drop-off in production, a stronger defense around him will allow his playmaking to shine. 2022 likely represents Ramsey’s peak production, so I’d expect closer to 70-75 tackles, 3-4 INTs, and around 15 passes defended.
Elliott posted 96 tackles, an INT, and 3 passes defended in 2022. He played the majority of the time near the line of scrimmage. While his one-year prove-it deal in Miami doesn’t guarantee a starting role, Elliott feels likely to be the third safety to start. He received a minimal investment but is someone to watch in camp.
Smith was the top pick of Miami in the 2023 draft as they didn’t expect him to be available. His role could grow as the year goes on, and there was a report that Ramsey could play more slot, allowing Smith to slide into the outside role at times. If Ramsey struggles on the outside, this could be a boon to Smith’s role in 2023.
New England Patriots IDP Outlook
Defensive Line/Edge
The returning players of significance in this AFC East IDP outlook include Matt Judon, Josh Uche, Deatrich Wise, and Christian Barmore.
Judon has taken it to another level in Foxboro. He’s had 60 tackles in each season and posted 12.5 and 15.5 sacks those years. While he’s now 31, there’s really no reason for him to slow down. I’d expect similar production but, see my tweet below and just be warned.
Matthew Judon has been an fantastic #FFIDP player but…
In 2021 & 2022 he tallied 28 total sacks.
Only 4 of 28 came after the bye weeks (22 games before the bye, 12 after). His PFF total pressures per game drop as well from 4.7 to 2.4— Justin Frye (@JFryeDP) February 28, 2023
Uche broke out in 2022, posting 27 tackles and 11.5 sacks. He was dynamic as a pass rusher but the question about his 2023 value is whether he will play more snaps. Uche only saw a run play on 47 of his 373 snaps (12.6%), while someone like Judon played 305 of his 858 snaps (35.5%) vs the run. Uche will likely see more pass-rush snaps since he broke out halfway through 2022. He needs to play the run more to boost tackle numbers and have a weekly floor.
Wise and Barmore round out the IDP-relevant DL. Wise broke out in 2022, posting 7.5 sacks and 59 tackles. Those numbers feel very repeatable for Wise, who will retain a similar role. As for Barmore, similar to Uche, he needs to play more snaps (and stay healthy). Barmore will be the interior rusher but he needs to play early downs to be more than a tantalizing talent.
White joins the Patriots’ linemen rotation.
The newcomer to the defensive line group is former Georgia Tech lineman Keion White.
White is an exciting player long-term, he has a lot of talent and can absolutely become another strong Patriot edge rusher. For 2023 though, he’s going to be brought along slowly and see limited snaps behind starters. White is unlikely to have much redraft value but is worth stashing for a couple of years in a dynasty league.
Linebacker
The returning player of significance in this AFC East IDP outlook is Ja’Whaun Bentley.
Bentley takes over as the leader of the defense as the Patriots locked him up this offseason for another two years and $18.75 million. Bentley is a steady LB3 for IDP, likely to rack up tackles (122 in 2022) and not much else. It’s possible that increases, but his new teammate might also impact that as the year goes on.
The newcomer to the group is Marte Mapu.
Mapu was a third-round pick out of Sacramento State. He figures to claim the other starting LB role by mid-season, if not sooner. He’s a smaller, more athletic type than Bentley, and has seen some practice time at safety too. Ultimately he was announced at LB and that is where the need for him is. Reports all offseason have been glowing.
Defensive Back
The returning players of significance in my AFC East IDP outlook include Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, and Marcus Jones.
Dugger continues to just miss the step into elite territory but don’t let that scare you off him. His 2021 saw him post 92 tackles, 5 passes defended, and 4 INTs. He took a step back in 2022, with only 78 tackles, 8 passes defended, and 3 INTs. Expect closer to 2021 numbers with room for growth.
Peppers is going to be fun to watch in year two for the Patriots and will be a big-time IDP sleeper. He and Dugger can play interchangeably and neither figure to play the primary deep role primarily. They likely will be used to disguise coverage with at least one playing de facto LB often. That hybrid role gives Peppers a ceiling similar to Dugger at a much cheaper price.
Jones is the likely slot CB and a strong tackler and returner. He also played some offense in 2022. That versatility, especially in leagues where you can get catches and return points, makes him a ceiling play weekly if you need some upside, but not someone I want to play weekly.
The newcomer to the group is Christian Gonzalez.
Gonzalez was the Patriots’ first-round selection, 17th overall out of Oregon. He will start the year as their top outside CB and draw teams’ elite WRs from the start. Normally outside CBs are risky and a rookie especially, but the CB1 has been a strong fantasy option more often than not. In leagues requiring CBs, he’s a deeper name to keep in mind.
New York Jets IDP Outlook
Defensive Line/Edge
The returning players of significance in this AFC East IDP outlook include Quinnen Williams, Carl Lawson, John-Franklin Myers, and Jermaine Johnson.
2022 saw Williams put it all together and make the leap. He matched his previous high of 55 tackles but also added 4 passes defended and 12 sacks to nearly match his prior two seasons combined. The Jets continue to try and add around him. Williams is the center of the defense and signed a huge four-year $96 million extension earlier this offseason. Another strong year seems like a lock.
Lawson and Franklin-Myers are the primary edge defenders from last year but are low-upside players. Tackle numbers in the mid-30s and 5-8 sacks feel fair based on past performance, but that’s a ceiling and the competition could make it hard to get to those numbers.
Johnson is an interesting player to consider, as he took the typical slow development path of young DL. His splits were fairly even run and pass, and PFF gave him similar grades for each. Reports have been glowing and early camp reports have him challenging for starting snaps. Don’t be shy about taking shots on young defenders with growing roles, great spot to get later-round values.
The newcomer to the group is rookie Will McDonald.
Jets’ rookie will be a rotational player in 2023.
McDonald was the 15th overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft, surprising many. McDonald was a joy to watch at Iowa St. As mentioned in Johnson’s blurb above though, rookies take time. He’s likely in line for similar to Johnson’s 2022 type of season but will be a buy for dynasty leagues next offseason. He has everything needed to be a solid edge.
Linebacker
The returning players of significance in this AFC East IDP outlook include C.J. Mosley and Quincy Williams.
Mosley is a stud to get on your IDP roster. What else is there to say? His two healthy years in New York have resulted in an average of 163 tackles. He has been top-eight in IDP123 scoring in both years, not surprisingly. The Jets really have no one behind him to put any pressure on him. Draft with confidence for 2023, but he might be a cap casualty after the season to save at least $11 million.
Williams is another ho-hum projection with no real challengers for his LB spot and back-to-back years averaging 108 tackles. He also seems locked into a strong role for this year and most likely next year too. He’s a fine third or fourth LB who’d likely see a bump if Mosley went down.
Defensive Back
The returning players of significance in my AFC East IDP outlook include Ahmad Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Jordan Whitehead.
The Jets return top starters along most of their secondary too, as Gardner and Reed reprise their starting roles at CB. Gardner posted 75 tackles, 20 passes defended, and 2 INTs on his way to Rookie of the Year honors. Reed posted 80 tackles, 12 passes defended, and a single INT. The tackles feel repeatable but Gardner may see fewer throws as QBs avoid his side so the passes defended may go away from him and to Reed.
Whitehead is a decent option at DB for teams too as he totaled 89 tackles in 2022. Since he doesn’t force a ton of turnovers his numbers will fluctuate weekly, so more of a fill-in option than a weekly start in most leagues. His numbers could easily grow a smidge though as he plays next to a different safety. There is a downside that is covered next.
The new player of significance in the IDP outlook is Adrian Amos.
Amos joined the Jets late after Chuck Clark went down in the offseason for the year. The Jets are lucky to land such a steady player so late in the offseason. Amos and Whitehead are an odd pairing, as both play a lot in the box. It’s something to watch in camp, as whoever has the box role is the player to draft. The primary deep safety is going to see significantly fewer tackle opportunities.
Thank you for reading my AFC East IDP Outlook article! Please follow me for more content via Twitter @FFFBallers and @IDPGuys, and check out my IDP Guys author page and the IDP Guys subscription page.
