Amon-Ra St. Brown and Gabriel Davis. Two big names this offseason. When it comes to your dynasty leagues, should you Buy or Sell?
It’s the offseason for dynasty leagues. Does that mean you should just sit back until your league’s rookie draft? If you want to be proactive, it is smart to go ahead and look to make moves early in the offseason. Many players change their values based on hype or recent performances. Let’s take a look at two hot names: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Gabriel Davis.
It’s All About Value
As a dynasty manager, you not only want good players on your roster but you need to know the right time to acquire or trade away a player. Just because you trade a player does not mean that you do not think the player is good. It may be that you cannot pass up a possible deal’s value.
Or, the opposite. Just because you acquire a player that does not mean you think he is guaranteed success.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown was drafted in the fourth round. In his rookie year, St. Brown well outperformed his draft capital. He caught 90 passes for 912 yards, 5 TDs, and finished 21st among WRs in PPR formatting. Those numbers in a rookie season scream “this is a guy you would want to keep,” right? Well, let’s take a deeper dive into the situation with the Lions this season.
Lack Of Competition
The Lions lacked receiving options in 2021, which was even more evident when D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson missed time in the season. They both missed time from weeks 14-17. The other options Brown was fighting for targets were Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds, and KhaDarel Hodge. Not a great list of talented WRs.
Future Of The Lions’ Offense
As you can see above, there is a stark difference when the Lions had their two top playmakers in the lineup. Also, it is most people’s opinion that the Lions will draft another WR early in the first few rounds, which would cause even more competition. While I think Brown will be a good NFL player for the team, I think he is more likely to be a fantasy WR3 or WR4 moving forward.
Buy Or Sell?
Sell. For all of the reasons listed above, I think this is the time to take advantage of Brown’s perceived value after the 2021 NFL Season. I would not just sell him for anything, such as a third-round 2022 draft pick. However, I would quickly accept a deal for a first or a second-round pick in addition to a WR in the range of Christian Kirk, Courtland Sutton, or Van Jefferson.
Gabriel Davis
Many, including myself, thought Davis would have a breakout in 2021, but that did not really happen. He finished with 10 fewer fantasy points but the same rank in PPR as WR57. The Bills lost John Brown but brought in veteran Emmanuel Sanders who played as second WR to Stefon Diggs for most of the season.
Strong Finish To The Season
Near the end of the season, Davis really came on with the last 4 games all over 80% snap share, averaging 8 targets a game, and 13.67 fantasy points per game. I know we can not always make an assumption of a full season, but if you did take that stretch for the whole season he would have been 13th in targets over Michael Pittman, Terry McLaurin, and D.K. Metcalf.
This strong play continued in the playoffs. Davis had a solid game against the Patriots and four TDs in a spectacular game against the Chiefs. Many will say that it was blown coverages and the injuries to the Chiefs’ DBs, but the clip below shows his great route running.
Gabe Davis
Spin Cycle pic.twitter.com/wZXYN48ZG5
— Jax Falcone (scott) 🚫 (@DynoGameTheory) January 24, 2022
Davis In 2022 And Beyond
The Bills could decide to bring in another veteran WR in 2022, but I think after his huge performance, Davis has made a stake for the second WR on this potent offense. Josh Allen showed what a star he is and why the offense is seventh in the NFL with over 37 pass attempts per game. With both Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders free agents, Davis could see a big uptick in production.
Buy Or Sell?
For Gabriel Davis, I am high on him as a dynasty player but do understand his ceiling is somewhere in the lower end of WR2 territory. I would trade a second-round pick for Davis. While I like the depth of this year’s WRs, I like Davis in that offense over WR6 and beyond in the rookie class. So this is a little more complicated but overall Davis is a buy for me.
Thanks for checking out my article, I hope you enjoyed it! Any feedback is welcome. You can read all my work on my IDP Guys Author Page and find me on Twitter @hayeb3.
