“Avoid costly mistakes in your best ball drafts with this guide to 2025’s top fantasy football ADP busts and rising values.”
The NFL offseason is in the dead zone. OTAs are ending, and training camp hasn’t begun. It’s the calm before the storm. This is when fantasy football ADP stabilizes—and when sharp managers can exploit value. Today, I’m diving into the top fantasy football ADP busts, rising sleepers, and hidden gems you need to know before your next best ball draft.
Let’s get into it.
(This is an AI-generated article from a recently published IDP+ Betting Podcast transcript.)
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Joe Burrow: The Trap of the Stack
Joe Burrow is one of the most polarizing picks in best ball right now. His ADP sits at 60.5, but that number lies. He rarely goes at pick 60. Instead, Burrow usually gets drafted at the 4–5 turn to stack with Ja’Marr Chase or pushed to pick 72. Either choice is wrong.
Burrow had a career year in 2024. He set personal bests in attempts, completions, yards, and touchdowns (43). But here’s the truth: that spike looks unsustainable.
He finished with the same number of Underdog points as Baker Mayfield, who you can draft 30 spots later. If you reach for Burrow at pick 48 or pick 72, you’re paying a premium for name value and not production. Taking him unstacked is even worse.
You can get similar output from Kyler Murray or Mayfield and stack your roster smarter elsewhere. Burrow is one of the clearest fantasy football ADP busts on the board.
Denver Running Backs: The Value Is Climbing
J.K. Dobbins just signed with Denver and is rising fast. His ADP shot from 180 to 139.2 and continues to climb daily. Some drafts see him go inside pick 105.
In a Sean Payton system, there’s real upside. Think back to Mark Ingram’s 1,500-yard, 12-touchdown season alongside Alvin Kamara. Dobbins put up 1,050 yards and 9 touchdowns last year, coming off an Achilles tear.
That’s elite recovery and production. Dobbins fits every build. Whether going Zero RB or robust RB, he’s a steal if you act fast.
RJ Harvey, with an ADP of 59.6 (RB20), also profiles as a solid investment. If Harvey falls, grab him. Both backs can thrive together. Denver’s offensive line blocks well, and the competition is weak. Dobbins and Harvey are rising values—get them before the market adjusts.
Pittsburgh Backfield: One to Fade, One to Target
The Steelers’ backfield is generating buzz, but not all of it is smart. Jalen Warren’s ADP (98.6) keeps rising, and it shouldn’t.
Aaron Rodgers may elevate the offense, but Warren is a terrible pass blocker. His PFF pass-blocking grade was near 25. That’s not someone you want protecting your veteran quarterback.
On the flip side, Kaleb Johnson is falling in drafts. That’s a mistake. He’s currently RB25 with a 74.9 ADP and fits Rodgers’ shotgun style perfectly.
Johnson was efficient from shotgun in college and doesn’t carry the pass-blocking concerns Warren does. Fade Warren, and buy the dip on Johnson.
Davante Adams: Disrespected at WR19
Adams’ ADP is currently 31.1 (WR19), and that’s just too low. Last year, in 11 games with the Jets, he racked up 114 targets—over 10 per game.
He’s now in a Rams offense with Matthew Stafford, who knows how to feed star wideouts. You’re getting top-tier volume in a condensed offense. Cooper Kupp and Adams will dominate targets.
Adams is a screaming value and not part of the fantasy football ADP busts discussion. He should be drafted closer to the 2–3 turn.
Khalil Shakir: The Definition of an ADP Bust
Khalil Shakir is a full fade. His ADP is 79.1 (WR44), and it makes no sense. Shakir had 76 catches, 821 yards, and 4 touchdowns last year.
That’s fine in full PPR, but not in half-PPR best ball. His ceiling is low, and he rarely hits your starting lineup. Shakir has just seven touchdowns in three NFL seasons.
Compare that to Wan’Dale Robinson, who had nearly identical production and is going 90 picks later. Shakir is one of the most obvious fantasy football ADP busts this year.
Michael Pittman: Buy the Dip Before It’s Gone
Pittman’s ADP is 93.7, and that makes no sense. The Colts seem likely to start Daniel Jones while Anthony Richardson recovers.
Jones can’t throw deep, and that benefits Pittman. He’s a short-to-intermediate target monster. Pittman scored 195 points two years ago, even with shaky quarterback play.
With a healthy back and an accurate short passer under center, Pittman is a screaming value. Grab him before the market corrects.
Tucker Kraft: The Market Missed This One
Tucker Kraft is one of the biggest mispriced tight ends in fantasy. His ADP is 133.8, but he was sixth in snap share last year among all tight ends.
He also finished second in yards per target (10.1), yards per reception (14.1), and yards per route run (2.64). Even with Luke Musgrave on the roster, Kraft stayed on the field constantly, including 97% of snaps in the Wild Card game.
He’s going behind rookies like Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren, both of whom carry more risk. Kraft offers elite volume and strong efficiency. Don’t wait.
Rachaad White: Undervalued and Ignored
Rachaad White is not flashy, but he scores touchdowns. He’s had nine touchdowns in each of the last two seasons.
White is currently RB46 with an ADP of 143. That’s outrageous for a proven scorer in a division full of bad defenses. The NFC South could be a shootout haven.
He’s a better pass blocker than Bucky Irving and more proven than Sean Tucker. Zach Charbonnet is being drafted 30 picks earlier with similar production.
White is one of the most underpriced backs in drafts. That makes fading him a mistake.
Final Word
These fantasy football ADP busts and rising values will define your best ball rosters. Avoid the traps like Joe Burrow, Jalen Warren, and Khalil Shakir. Target rising value in players like Dobbins, Pittman, Adams, and Kraft.
Get ahead of the market. Draft smarter. Win more.
Thank you for reading this article by @IDP_Plus. This article was created using IDP+ AI and edited by an IDP+ Staff Member. Be sure to check out the video above, which this article is based on, talking about fantasy football best ball strategies. Follow the host @theJoelWirth on X!
