“Ready to get down on some AFC Championship props on the defensive side? JMark has you covered with his top defensive bets!”
Championship weekend is here! The time to make money on the National Football League is running out, as we only have three games left in total. However, we won’t let that panic us as we dive in to explore all betting markets. And you know the drill, at IDP+ we’re focused on the defensive side of things! Let’s take a look at some of the top AFC Championship Defensive props that you should be betting!
AFC Championship Defensive Props
Nik Bonitto To Record A Sack (-154), To Record 1.25+ Sacks (+210),
Bonitto Over 1.5 Tackles (+105),
Bonitto to Record a Sack in Each Half (+450)
I had all of these separated out as different bets under different headings, but why not combine them? Obviously, if you’re looking over my AFC Championship defensive props, you can see I’m expecting Nik Bonitto to channel a Von Miller-like performance. In the 2015 AFC Championship game between the Broncos and Patriots, Von Miller had a huge game. Nik Bonitto has been one of the top playmakers for the Denver Broncos in 2025, and they’ll need him on Sunday.
With Bo Nix injured and the Broncos relying on Jarrett Stidham, the Broncos will need their defense. The heart and soul of that defense, Nik Bonitto, will need to step up. The Patriots allowed the Texans to sack Drake Maye five different times. Bonitto finished the year with 14 total sacks and added another in last week’s playoff game. Therefore, I’m all over Bonitto to record a sack at -154 and to record more than 1.25+ sacks at +210. If I think he gets more than one sack, then obviously his over 1.5 tackles will also hit at +105. Finally, last week I nailed Will Anderson to record a sack in each half against the Patriots. This week I’m taking the same bet with Bonitto at +450. Win or lose, I expect it to be a Bonitto statement game.
K’Lavon Chaisson To Record A Sack (+120)
While we’re on the subject of sacks for our AFC Championship defensive props, I had to circle K’Lavon Chaisson. At +120 to record a sack, the value is just too good. He already has three in two playoff games and will look to continue his strong playoff performance.
Chaisson only finished with 7.5 sacks during the regular season. However, looking at his strong performances against the Chargers and Texans, he’ll look to make life tough for Jarrett Stidham. Chaisson has made a big impact for the Patriots in his first year with them. He began his career with the Jaguars, then did a one-year stint in Las Vegas. Now, one game away from the Super Bowl, he’ll look to help push the Patriots back to the Super Bowl by causing problems for the opposing quarterback.
Milton Williams and K’Lavon Chaisson to Combine for 1.75+ Sacks (+310)
Two weeks ago, K’Lavon Chaisson had two sacks on his own. Therefore, he could cash this +310 AFC Championship defensive prop just on his own. However, the official bet is Milton Williams and Chaisson to combine for 1.75+ sacks at +310.
Ironically, two weeks ago, Chaisson also had two sacks on his own. They are both capable of having multiple sack games, and they’re definitely both capable of just having one sack apiece. The Broncos’ offensive line has been fairly solid this year. However, Bo Nix was sacked 24 times. On top of that, with Jarrett Stidham stepping in, backups tend to hold the ball just a little bit longer, leading to more sack opportunities.
K’Lavon Chaisson Over 1.5 Tackles (+100)
I just wrote how Chaisson is capable of having a two-sack game. Therefore, the next bet on my list of AFC Championship defensive props is Chaisson over 1.5 tackles at +100. I mainly grabbed this one because it’s plus money, and anytime you’re relying on a guy to just get two tackles at plus money, it seems worth it. Especially a linebacker who gets plenty of playing time.
Chaisson has three total tackles in each of the last five games. In 18 total games this year, including playoffs, he’s not hit this number six times. That’s why at plus money, I had to jump on it.
Christian Gonzalez Over 3.5 Tackles (+110)
Speaking of tackles, another player I’m jumping on to hit over their tackles is Christian Gonzalez. He’s a big part of this Patriots’ defense and has been all over the field this year. Last week against the Texans, Gonzalez finished with six solo tackles and three assists for a total of nine. He’s gone over 3.5 solo tackles in three of the last four games.
The Broncos are going to have to get creative. I expect a lot of short stints by receivers, which will lead to defensive back tackles. They’ll also try to get the run game going to the outside, which leaves plenty of opportunity for tackles at the second level. At +110, Gonzalez over 3.5 tackles feels like a good spot.
Riley Moss Over 3.5 Tackles (+110)
For my last bet for the AFC Championship defensive props bets, I’m going with Riley Moss over 3.5 tackles at +110. Moss finished the year with 80 total tackles, including 57 solo tackles. Last week, he had three solo tackles and four total. When placing these bets, be careful with the wording. Some of the books specify solo tackles, others total tackles. The numbers I found were total tackles, rather than solo.
There are only three times this season that Moss did not hit this in total tackles. Therefore, the +110 number seems to be a lock. Good luck on your AFC Championship bets, and look for my NFC Championship bets to come out tomorrow.
Thank you for checking out my AFC Championship Defensive Props article! You can read all of my articles on my IDP+ author page. Be sure to follow me on X at @JMarkfootball and @IDP_Plus.
