“It’s The Top of Week 7 NFL Prop Bets Game Picks with the One and Only, Johny The Greek!”
Greetings and welcome to the Week 7 NFL Prop Bets Game Picks, a new article series for this season where we’ll discuss what I believe to be some of the best bets we can make each week of this NFL season.
We’re coming off of an excellent Week 6 where I went 2-1 in this article and 10-2 in the podcast (which can be found on the IDP Plus YouTube channel). I used my favorite betting style, the parlay round robin, to more than quadruple my initial investment and that’s with getting two wrong. We’ll hopefully ride this two-week hot streak of winning records we’ve got going through Week 7! Let’s get into it!
Remember! Use this article and the podcast as “idea generators” instead of just a “blueprint to blindly tail” and we’ll both end up much happier at the end of the season. Learning to fish is always better than someone just handing you a fish.
REMINDER! These aren’t even suggestions, they’re just thoughts I’m putting on “paper”. Set a limit and stick to it, for help with problem gambling please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
All Game Picks for Week 7 NFL Prop Bets, game lines, moneyline prices, and spreads are accurate as of 10/16/2024.
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills Week 7 NFL Prop Bets
The bet: Bills alt-line -6.5 (-159)
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use the Vegas spread (Bills -9, -110) or your own alt-line if you want to lean into the likely blowout (Bills -13.5 is +145).
The rationale: The “vibes” are what initially pointed me in the direction of this pick, they’re as obvious as that Detroit blowout against Dallas was last week to anyone with eyeballs. Tennessee is in trouble, big time, and Buffalo is coming off of an ugly but important win against New York and has moved into first place in the division. They parlayed that victory with an “off the field” victory in securing Amari Cooper via trade to add an alpha wide receiver to an already talented offense. They know their window is now and they’re going for it. Buffalo is also at home and it’s getting cold out, this Tennessee team has enough trouble at home, and in a warmer climate, they’re in big trouble going to visit the Bills mafia at their place.
Getting healthy at the best possible moment
Beyond that, they’re also getting healthy at the right time. Taron Johnson just came back from a multi-week injury and was outstanding in his first game back with a ton of tackles and a game-securing interception. He joins Terrel Bernard who came back the week prior and Taylor Rapp who was out in Week 5 but back last week. Ed Oliver, their all-pro defensive tackle, was even able to practice in a limited fashion to start this week so signs are pointing to his imminent return as well. All of this is great news for a defense that was already just outside the top ten in the league for points per game even with almost half of their starting lineup missing. Buffalo is second overall throughout the entire league for turnover differential and, once again, accomplished this by missing their best cornerback, best defensive tackle, best linebacker, and starting safety.
They’re adding more firepower to an offense that’s already 7th overall in points per game across the league and is truly one of the few “balanced” offenses that exists this season. Opposing defenses can’t game plan effectively for them since they run as well as they pass and Josh Allen is a force of nature by himself. Buffalo is locked and loaded to make a run in the AFC this season and when we look at their opponent this week, Tennessee, I’m not seeing a team that can derail those aspirations.
Super Bowl for one, Toilet Bowl for the other
Tennessee is currently ranked 31st overall, also known as “second worst”, in offensive yards per game. They are ranked 31st again in passing yards per game. They score fewer than 20 points per game and have a -7 turnover differential, which is also 31st overall across the league. Will Levis only has five passing touchdowns through five games with 7 interceptions and he’s been sacked 15 freaking times so far this season! This offense has somehow made Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins basically useless in fantasy football and beyond Tony Pollard there is no one I’d consider starting from that offense. Levis is also horrendous in terms of his PFF grade, just a 44.9 overall grade, which is “red” for you all-22 players out there. None of that is great if you’re a Titans fan or were hoping for a competitive matchup with this game.
All of that is just a long-winded way of saying that these are two teams that are on completely different planets, solar systems, heck even galaxies. Tennessee is just hoping to get a good draft pick while Buffalo is right in the thick of it to challenge for the AFC championship and get their shot at the Super Bowl before their window closes. If this thing goes like the paper says it should we should be very safe with our Buffalo -6.5 alt line and be in a good position to cash this in Week 7.
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders
The bet: Commanders -6.5 alt line (-149)Week 7 NFL Prop Bets
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use the Vegas spread (Commanders -8, -112) or your own alt line if you want to lean into the likely blowout (Commanders -13.5 is +156).
The rationale: Much like the Buffalo bet above, this is an obvious “no-brainer” where we’ve got two teams on entirely different levels facing off with the far crappier team going on the road to very likely get their brains beat in. The vibes for this one match the Buffalo bet as well. Washington is coming off of a tough, close, loss to an excellent Ravens team where they hung with Lamar Jackson and company all the way until the end but came up just a bit short. Washington has proven to be an excellent team so far this season and their opponent, who’s coming to their house, has proved to be anything but.
An excellent young offense and incredible coaching
Washington, even with a rookie quarterback, and we’ll get to him in a minute, is the third overall team in the league for points per game at a ridiculous 29.7 points per game. Carolina is 28th overall for this same ranking and averages 17.2 points per game, that tells most of the story right there. Washington has an incredible offense that is 5th overall in yards per game and within the top third of the league for passing yards per game. They are also 5th overall for rushing yards per game and that props up their impressive 31 minutes per game of offensive possession ranking, which is also within the top third of the league overall. Washington has maintained a positive turnover differential while Carolina most certainly has not.
Carolina is 25th overall in yards per game, 23rd overall for passing yards per game, and 22nd overall in rushing yards per game. They are ranked within the worst third of the league for the time of possession and still haven’t even settled on who should be under center for them each week. Defensively they are allowing almost 400 yards per game of opposing offense and are dead last throughout the entire league in defensive points per game allowed with an incredible 33.8 points per game given up weekly! They are also down, starting inside linebackers and their all-pro defensive tackle, Derrick Brown. On offense they’re missing Adam Thielen and their offensive line is shredded with injury as well, even if they once had the players required to hang with this Washington team that ship has certainly sailed by now.
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The future is bright in Washington
The young quarterback in Washington should give us pause, but he doesn’t. He’s been outstanding, he can take off from the pocket and turn a disaster into an opportunity. He’s poised and isn’t overextending, he takes what the defense gives him, and head coach Dan Quinn has set him and this team up for success by mixing young talent with veteran leadership like Bobby Wagner and others. And while their defense may not be among the best in terms of rankings we need to remember those rankings are a bit skewed by the shootouts with Cincy, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay. When it comes to those “impact plays”, sacks, and turnovers, they’re doing just fine (9th overall in sacks and +1 turnover differential compared to Carolina’s -4).
On paper, this is a bounce-back game for a talented young team that has its sights set not only on the playoffs but on taking back the division from the likes of a mediocre Philly team and a horrendously bad Dallas team. With such lofty goals and expectations, I find it hard to believe that they would let this dumpster-fire Carolina team derail them at home and coming off of a tough loss to a Super Bowl contender in Baltimore.
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The bet: Under 40.5 alt line (-154) Week 7 NFL Prop Bets
How to improve those numbers (riskier but a better payout): Use the Vegas total (under 38, -110) or your own alt line. Or you can parlay these three picks together to get +348 or parlay round-robin them and still get one wrong and make a profit.
The rationale: This feels like another no-brainer, neither offense is good at all and both of these teams have an excellent defense. If we tweak the Vegas line up a few points we should have more than enough clearance to remain under this total when it’s all said and done. Even with the recent addition of DeVante Adams this New York team isn’t going to go from the offense we’ve seen so far this season to the reincarnation of the 1999 Rams.
And, on the same line of thinking, benching the 4-2 Justin Fields (10 TDs, 1 INT, he’s been terrific) for weirdo Russel Wilson isn’t going to transform this Pittsburgh offense from what it is now to the clone of the 1983 Washington Redskins. This should be a defensive struggle and has one of the lowest totals of the Week 7 NFL Prop Bets. We’ll use that to our advantage and bet the under, but our version of the under since the Vegas line is always cleverly designed to screw us out of our money.
The most obvious defensive struggle I’ve ever seen
If we look at the points per game averages with these two teams we get about 21 points per game from Pittsburgh and 19 points per game from New York. In a normal matchup that would give us 40 points total and we’d only have half of a point clearance even using this alt line. However, I don’t think we’ll be getting a “normal” matchup here, not with these two defenses, which are actually healthier than most in the league at the moment. For New York they’re really just missing Jermaine Johnson and Chuck Clark, for Pittsburgh it’s really just Alex Highsmith and he returned to practice this week.
These two defenses are 8th (Pittsburgh) and 2nd (New York) overall in yards per game allowed, 2nd and 7th in points per game allowed respectively, and have a +6 turnover differential combined. Pittsburgh is the 4th best team in the league for time of possession while New York is just outside the top third of the league in this category so we’ll probably see some lengthy, clock-killing drives, but I doubt we’ll see many touchdowns at the end of them. New York is number four overall in sacks across the entire league, and while Pittsburgh is among the middle of the pack for this ranking, we need to remember they’ve been missing the other half of their dynamic duo pass-rushing combo of Watt and Highsmith. With Highsmith back at practice this week the odds are good that they’ll be back among the league leaders in sacks per game here shortly.
Offense that’s so bad it hurts to look at
Offensively, both teams are within the worst third of the league for yards per game. Same story in points per game. The recent moves from both teams of trading for DeVante Adams and benching a winning quarterback (Fields) for Russel Wilson stink of desperation. What’s really weird is Pittsburgh shouldn’t be desperate, they’re right in the thick of it at 4-2 and tied for the division lead with Baltimore. This strange move to go with Wilson makes zero sense and the odds are good it will blow up in their faces as we all have eyeballs and have seen Russel Wilson play football in recent years.
So to summarize, neither offense is good, in fact, they’re so “not good” that they’re making insane moves to try and fix something that can’t be fixed any time soon. Both defenses are excellent, incredible even. This has one of the lowest totals of the week to begin with and is outdoors in Pittsburgh where we’ve seen fewer points per game and yards per game the last ten seasons consecutively. The Vegas total is probably right on the money like it always is, so we’ll use that knowledge to tweak it up a few points and use our alt-line to give ourselves a buffer. So hopefully, this game will come in under the total and we cash out in our Week 7 NFL Prop Bets
Thank you for reading my favorite NFL Best Bets! Please don’t forget to check out the IDP Plus gambling channel on YouTube. And catch my MONEYLINE for more prop picks. Make sure you’re visiting IDP Plus for all your IDP and “non-traditional” fantasy football needs, we’ve got you covered for all your leagues, DFS, best ball, and betting needs!
