Welcome to the IDP Guys’ weekly game preview and start/sit articles! Our team has broken down each game and the IDP outlooks for the most relevant IDP players to help you make those tough lineup decisions. May the fantasy gods be forever in your favor!
*Please check back frequently for written updates as our writers and editors are all on different schedules. Updates will occur all day throughout the day on Thursday and Friday*
This year we are bringing you a new format to help you with those pesky start/sit decisions. In addition to listing players, we hope these categories are more useful to you than a traditional start or sit classification. Here are our definitions for our four categories.
- Start Your Studs: These players should always be in your lineup or have SMASH matchups this week. Even your most shallow IDP leagues should include these players in their starting lineups.
- Solid Starting Options: These players may vary from week to week and are very matchup-dependent. They are likely weekly starters in 12+ team leagues starting at least two players at each IDP position.
- Hail Mary: These players have big question marks surrounding their roles, usage, and murky playing time projections. Lean towards benching them unless you are in very deep leagues (16+32 teams and/or 11+ IDP starters). If they see the field consistently, they have the potential to move up a category as Solid Starting Options but until then, they will likely be big-play-dependent with low tackle floors. Your classic boom/bust options.
- No Thank You: Clear sits for the week due to matchups, playing time trends, injuries, etc.
*Most CB and DT recommendations are meant for CB and/or DT-required leagues. If in DB or DL-only leagues, generally move down one category level.
Of course, your league sizes and scoring settings are going to be different from person to person and league to league. If you need further clarification or suggestions on who to start over another player in a similar tier, we have two additional solutions for you!
Our expert weekly positional rankings can be found here for subscribers.
And for your offensive needs, check out the Offensive Points crew!
Listen to the top-rated FantasyPros IDP ranker, Steve Hungarter (@IDPHunter), talk through this week’s top IDP rankings here!
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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (THANKSGIVING)
By Steve Hungarter (@IDPHunter)
This matchup is interesting. Both teams offensively can move the football (Packers are 7th best, and Lions are 3rd) so that means there’s a chance at some key IDP big plays in the sack or Interception can be had in this one. Defensively, they are both fairly close (both 15th and 17th yards per play allowed) I would say good but not great the DST both are not considered lockdown. Here is an odd fact: The Packers have not won a road game, but lost several of these by a touchdown or less.
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Aidan Hutchinson – The Packers offensive line looks better on paper than what it really is and could be had. Consider Hutch a top 8 start this week, as he is PFF graded as a top 10 at his position while also being a top producer in pressures this season. It will be interesting to see what the Packer’s offensive line does to overcome that.
Solid Starting Options
Rashan Gary is in the conversation here. It won’t be easy as he likely will get matched up against a top pass blocker in Penei Sewell. Stats say, he has been winning his matchup and he should get to the quarterback one of these games if not this one.
Rudy “My name is the definition of an unsung hero” Ford can actually put up stats for you week to week. I have him as a top 20 player, which should be good enough for most DB2 formats.
You know Jonathan Owens may just sneak into lineups this week. 100% snap count for four straight weeks and eight tackles or more for three of them.
Hail Mary
Bad news. Check the health status of De’Vondre Campbell. We don’t know yet, the good news is we know his replacement is Isaiah McDuffie.
Preston Smith is always a basement bargain. He actually has a history of going off on TNF (seriously look that up) so he is worth the dart throw as a top 60 DL player.
The entire Lions secondary of Kerby Joeseph, Tracy Walker, and Brian Branch (I think Branch has the potential to be a top 30 DB however let me be clear) could be had in here also. It is anyone’s guess as the Packers do not throw the ball very much. One of these three should benefit.
No Thanks
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (THANKSGIVING)
By Steve Tomasin (@DynastySanta)
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Can we keep the Daron Bland streak going? It is another plus-matchup this week with the Commanders surrendering the 8th most IDP fantasy points. Mix that with a turnover-prone QB in Sam Howell and you have the recipe for possibly an NFL record-setting FIFTH interception return for a touchdown. Even if that doesn’t happen, we expect Bland to come away with a really nice IDP fantasy line in this one. He is a top-12 over DB, not just a CB-required play this week.
The “cheat code” Markquese Bell makes his first appearance of the season in this tier. After a scary Week 10 performance where he only logged 39% of the snaps (likely game script/blowout), he bounced back and actually out-snapped LB Damone Clark from 85% to 75%. That may also have been game script-related but Bell appears to have a hold on a starting LB job in Dallas and the Commanders give up the most IDP fantasy points to LBs and the 19th most IDP fantasy points to safeties. Bell should be a smash play this week.
Solid Starting Options
Remember David Mayo having the best IDP fantasy game of his career last week? Well, Cody Barton said “Hold my beer” and will return from IR and play this week. He should walk right back into his old role, where he was outproducing Jamin Davis, who also lands in this tier with Dallas giving up the 11th most IDP fantasy points to LBs.
Practically anyone on the Cowboys’ defensive line could eat in this matchup, but we like DT Osa Odighizuwa and DE Demarcus Lawrence to be the most fruitful benefactors of this plus-matchup for both positions on the D-line.
Hail Mary
Despite their strong performances last week (you have to remember it was against the Giants), DEs K.J. Henry and Casey Toohill (who is unfortunately an LB on the MFL platform) are really weekly Hail Mary options. Chase Young and Montez Sweat, they are not. And we need to remember that. They are only barely trustworthy in excellent matchups (like last week) as they don’t do enough beyond sacks to warrant more than this tier-3 designation.
With Jayron Kearse doubtful, Juanyeh Thomas is the next man up and joins the weekly Hail Mary designation for all of the Dallas true safeties. Washington only gives up the 19th most IDP fantasy points to safeties so it is likely another paltry performance from the group.
No Thanks
Jayron Kearse is doubtful.
Emmanuel Forbes after a strong IDP fantasy showing is likely to miss this game with an elbow injury.
James Smith-Williams is also set to miss this game.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (THANKSGIVING)
By Steve Tomasin (@DynastySanta)
Take a gander at both of these offenses’ rankings in snaps. Neither is on the field very much at all so this could leave the cupboard a bit bare in terms of IDP fantasy points and opportunities. Mix in the all-around poor fantasy matchups at almost every position for each squad and it’s a recipe for tempering expectations in this one.
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Just the top two LBs for each team remain as elite/stud options. You likely don’t have the luxury of benching either Fred Warner or Bobby Wagner so the advice is to take shots on high-ceiling players who have better matchups in your starting lineups.
Solid Starting Options
A few players who are normally studs fall to this tier based on the outlined matchups and potential game script. Again, you’re a lucky manager if you can afford to pivot from the likes of Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Jordyn Brooks, Boye Mafe, or Devon Witherspoon. Quandre Diggs makes an appearance based on his recent play and owning the best IDP matchup for either team at any position. The 49ers are surrendering the 14th most IDP fantasy points to safeties so far this year.
Hail Mary
Jamal Adams is “expected” to return in this game but at the time of this publication, we still don’t have any concrete information. So, he and Julian Love become Hail Mary options due to the uncertainty here.
The 49ers DTs have been putting up some decent numbers as of late. Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave are playing about the same amount of snaps so they could flip-flop their production week to week. With the poor matchup (Seahawks give up just the 24th most IDP fantasy points to DTs) both find themselves as tier-3 options. We will look for better matchups this week.
The hottest waiver wire addition of the week, 49ers safety Ji’Ayir Brown, had an incredible IDP fantasy performance last week in relief duty for the injured Talanoa Hufanga on just 51% of the snaps. This week, he draws an unfortunate IDP fantasy matchup as the Seahawks give up just the 23rd most IDP fantasy points to safeties. He obviously needs to be rostered in just about an IDP league size and format for the rest of the year. Managers expecting a repeat/improvement from last week, however, may find themselves disappointed.
No Thanks
Talanoa Hufanga was placed on IR and will miss the remainder of this season and likely at least half of next season as well.
49ers CB Isaiah Oliver has lost his job to the combination of Deommodore Lenoir (shifting to slot CB from boundary CB) and Ambry Thomas (new boundary CB). Oliver had been doing okay and this is a potentially lucrative spot so hopefully Lenoir can regain some of his early season steam going forward.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (BLACK FRIDAY)
By Steve Hungarter (@IDPHunter)
This Black Friday game will be no bargain. It is safe to say, that whatever chances the Jets had a playoff fire will be extinguished by the Dolphins this weekend. Still, the Jets and Dolphins renew their rivalry in this one. For the Jets, their season is mostly over but the Dolphins still need to prove to people they can beat better-to-credible teams. I think the Dolphins have this one (Could you tell?), as they match up better on paper. See below.
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C.J. Mosely is a top-10 linebacker any given Sunday, and they will need him this one. His partner in crime, Quincy Williams is also tier-1 (LB14) but be careful, as he is questionable at the time of this writing. The Dolphins are also a really tough IDP fantasy matchup for LBs so temper expectations in this one.
Don’t look now but Jaelan Phillips had six tackles, two sacks, and an interception in week 11. I should not have to tell you that he is a must-start against the Jets, but I will say with upcoming matchups against the Commanders and the Titans you might want to get your hands on this player.
Solid Starting Options
Bradley Chubb has sneakily come on in recent weeks, with three sacks in the last six games. I am playing him as DL20 myself, so he gets a really nice matchup with the Jets. (See above)
Jordan Whitehead is too hit or miss for me to be relied on but this matchup is too good to not take a chance. The Dolphins surrender the most IDP fantasy points to safeties on the year so far.
Hail Mary
Unlike the Jets, the duo of Jerome Baker and David Long continue to underwhelm. You might be stuck this week having to play one hopefully it is in your flex.
You know Quinnen Williams doesn’t slide this far too often but to quote our own Michael Sicoli “The Dolphins system involves quick slant throws allowing to keep the pocket clean and him safe.” I feel this is spot-on analysis so might be a hard matchup.
Jevon Holland for the first time makes DB2 on this list, the Jets are not expected to throw the ball enough.
Lastly, The Jets Dline of Jermaine Johnson and Bryce Huff should be hard-pressed for points as well.
No Thanks
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
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Solid Starting Options
Hail Mary
No Thanks
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
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The Bengals lost quarterback Joe Burrow to a season-ending wrist injury last week. That ends any hope of them contending for a championship this season and it will be a massive challenge for Cincinnati to simply make the playoffs. Backup QB Jake Browning takes over and while we don’t know a ton about him, I’m always going to bet on inexperienced quarterbacks not getting the ball out of the pocket quickly.
So fire up T.J. Watt this week because this is a prime opportunity for a blow-up game! Browning finished the game against the Ravens with a respectable line of 8/14 for 68 yards passing and 1 touchdown. He also was sacked 3 times in about two quarters. I’m sure coach Zac Taylor will try to protect Browning by relying on the running game and mixing in some screens, but there’s only so much you can do to prepare for a player like Watt in a week.
Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is also a must-start IF he’s available. He did not practice Wednesday and he has missed about a month with a nagging hamstring injury. Here’s hoping he gets back on the field for this one. You’ll most likely need to monitor his status up until game time. However, if he doesn’t at least get a limited practice session in by Friday, that would indicate that he’s trending toward being out.
Solid Starting Options
Elandon Roberts stepped into the lead linebacker role and did not disappoint. He amassed 15 tackles (11 solo) against the Browns last week. I expect him to put up another good performance in Week 12. He’s worth a start in most formats.
The same logic we used in projecting T.J. Watt having a dominant game should also be applied to his fellow edge Alex Highsmith and interior lineman Cameron Heyward. The Bengals are going to give up pressures and sacks this week. Both of these guys have a decent chance of also benefiting from the situation.
I’m not going out on a limb in placing Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson in the solid start section. He’s racked up 14 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and a half sack in his last two games. If you have Wilson on your team, of course, you’re going to start him. There’s also potential for a splash play with the matchup of opposing quarterback Kenny Pickett.
Hail Mary
For the DEEP DT-required leagues, take a look at Steelers nose tackle Keeanu Benton. Normally in IDP, I prefer 3-techniques or linemen that line up over the guard instead of center. There’s usually not a lot of fantasy value in absorbing blocks and cutting off gaps. Benton though is seeing a major increase in snaps. He’s averaged over 60% of snaps in the last three games. That resulted in 12 tackles providing a nice floor. You shouldn’t be forcing him into your lineup, but if you’re struggling with byes and injuries, he can give you a hand.
The Steelers offense ranks 29th in the NFL for total snaps, which doesn’t lend its opponents ideal IDP opportunities. Regardless, I would start the Bengals safeties in all formats except for super shallow (12 teams or less) ones. Dax Hill has cooled off a little bit from his early season inferno form, but he still made 14 tackles in the last two games, so he’s not going to hurt your team. Rookie S Jordan Battle took over at the other spot last week and posted 12 tackles (10 solo).
No Thanks
When Steelers linebackers Cole Holcomb (knee) and Kwon Alexander (Achilles) went down, it elevated Elandon Roberts to a full-time starter at one of the inside linebacker spots. Mark Robinson was a candidate to take over the other. He played 60% of snaps in Week 10. Former Falcon Mykal Walker took over in Week 11 and Robinson didn’t see a single snap. The Steelers also signed Myles Jack out of retirement and former Pokémon card mogul Blake Martinez, so there’s more competition for the position. Safe to say, that Robinson can be cut or at least benched in all leagues.
Bengals defensive end Sam Hubbard is not likely to play this week as he recovers from an ankle injury. That doesn’t mean I would play any of the guys who are going to receive a bump in snaps as a result. Myles Murphy, Cameron Sample, and Joseph Ossai will all factor into the rotation. However, it’s tough to project any of them delivering on Sunday. They have a combined 3 sacks in 2023. Do yourself a favor and keep them on the bench.
RIP to Nick Scott’s time as a starting safety for the Bengals. Rookie Jordan Battle finally overtook him in the lineup and relegated Scott to a mere 17% of snaps. Battle was all over the field and I got the feeling that this was a permanent demotion.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
By Randy Johnson (@OldMan_FF)
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Foyesade Oluokun is the best of the best. He is the top-scoring LB again. Double-digit scoring every week. Already 107 tackles (70 solo), and 7 tackles for a loss. He has 2.5 sacks in his last two games. Add in 1 forced fumble, 2 fumble recoveries, and 1 interception. Don’t ever sit him, ever.
Devin Lloyd has five straight games of 16 or more points scored. He has averaged 10 tackles per game over this stretch. The Texans are a very good matchup for opposing LBs. Lloyd needs to be started in all circumstances also.
Blake Cashman just had one of the best games of the year by an LB. He scored 41 points by posting 19 tackles (13 solo), 1 tackle for a loss, 1 sack, and 1 pass defended. This was his second 100% snap game, and he delivers when he gets the snaps. In his other 100% snap game, he scored 31 points with 15 tackles. The Jaguars are also a nice matchup for opposing LBs.
Solid Starting Options
Josh Allen is the ultimate boom/bust play there is in 2023. He has between 2-6 points in 6 of his games, and 17-34 in his other 4 games. The Texans are a tough opponent for opposing DE/Edge but Allen is too big of a talent to not start.
On the other hand, the Jaguars are a very good opponent for opposing DE/Edge players. Will Anderson Jr. and Jonathan Greenard are two very nice plays this week. Greenard has six sacks in his last seven games. He also has nine tackles for a loss in those same games. Will Anderson has been improving as the year goes on. He has 2 tackles for a loss and 2 sacks in his last 3 games. Both players have about the same snaps over the last few weeks.
Opposing CBs have average production against the Jaguars. When you look at the Texans duo, Tavierre Thomas and Derek Stingley Jr., they get tackles. Both players have missed games due to injury this year. Thomas has been back for four games while Stingley Jr just returned last week. They average seven tackles a game each. That is what makes a good CB, especially in CB-required leagues.
Hail Mary
Travon Walker has five games with at least a half-sack. He’ll play 70-85% of the snaps and get plenty of opportunity to produce points. Walker has posted double-digit scoring in four games this year.
Rayshawn Jenkins has dropped from the perch he held last year of being the top Safety in IDP leagues. We know where his ceiling takes him, but he doesn’t reach it as often as last year. He has seven double-digit scoring games and two of 18 points or more scored. His ceiling is there but the Texans are a tough matchup for opposing Safeties.
The Jaguars are a very nice matchup for opposing DTs. Enter Sheldon Rankins who just had a three-sack game in Week 10. It was his second straight 5 tackles, 2 tackles for a loss, and 1 sack game in games he played in. He missed Weeks 8 and 9.
Christian Harris found himself with 100% of the snaps in Week 11 because of Suspension and Injury. Henry To’oTo’o was injured and Denzel Perryman has been suspended. Harris posted 5 solo tackles, 1 tackle for a loss, and 2 passes defended.
Jalen Pitre has played 100% of the snaps in six straight games now. He has five double-digit scoring games in that stretch. He also laid one big goose egg in Week 10 against the Bengals. Even with the zero score, he is averaging six tackles a game. He is worth a shot.
No Thanks
Due to a lack of playing time and/or results, you should not have K’Lavon Chaisson, Dawuane Smoot, Chad Muma, Antonio Johnson, and Myjai Sanders in your lineup.
Denzel Perryman is serving a suspension right now. Check the injury status of To’oTo’o, Tyson Campbell, and Jimmy Ward before playing.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
