“Five Running Backs You Must Avoid Drafting According To Sr. NFL Analyst Justin Mark”
I’ve already had a couple of people reach out about doing a start-up draft. Is it too early? Absolutely not! Regardless of whether you have a draft this month or in three months, you have to start prepping now. This is my list of five fantasy football running backs you must avoid in your draft! I’m not saying they’re terrible backs, but they will underperform their ADP!
Let’s not be silly. I’m not throwing guys like Roschon Johnson on here. That’s too obvious! We’re going with some guys that you might be on the fence about whether to draft or not. These are the guys that fall on my do-not-draft list.
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1. Christian McCaffrey – San Francisco 49ers
The first fantasy football running back on my list of quarterbacks to avoid in your draft is Christian McCaffrey. I know it’s hard to pass on a guy with so much talent, I get it. However, he just hasn’t been able to stay healthy enough to warrant spending such a high draft pick on him.
CMC is currently going as the tenth running back in most formats. He’s the fifth running back off the board in Underdog Fantasy. Likely, that means you’re using your first-round pick on him in Underdog, and he just doesn’t seem worth the risk to me. I know somebody has to take the risk, but it doesn’t have to be you.
Last year, at the beginning of the year, it was disclosed that McCaffrey had Achilles’ tendonitis. Take it from somebody who has dealt with tendonitis, that doesn’t just go away. It especially doesn’t go away when you’re jump cutting, running, and getting hit by 250 to 300-pounders.
If you break it down by fantasy points per game, McCaffrey was the 33rd-ranked running back with only 8.2 fantasy points per game.
2. Jonathan Taylor – Indianapolis Colts
Another guy that is starting to have a bit of an injury history is Colts’ back Jonathan Taylor. He is also on my list of fantasy football running backs to avoid in your draft. Taylor is currently being drafted as the sixth running back off the board in most leagues and eighth on Underdog Fantasy.
He was able to stay healthy most of last year and finished fifth. However, with Anthony Richardson also potentially healthy and winning the starting job, some of Taylor’s upside is taken away. Two years ago, Taylor finished as the 28th running back.
Running back six feels like Taylor’s absolute ceiling in fantasy football this year. Therefore, if you’re drafting him that high, you can’t afford to have him miss any games or have any bad games. I wouldn’t avoid him altogether. However, if it’s anything above RB10, I’d pass.
3. Josh Jacobs – Green Bay Packers
After several years of up-and-down inefficiency on the Raiders, the Packers brought in Josh Jacobs, and he was a top-five fantasy football running back. However, this year he falls on my list of fantasy football running backs to avoid in your draft.
This is simply because I don’t think he can duplicate it. We’ve seen this story before. In 2022, Jacobs was the top fantasy football running back in the league. The next year he finished 25th. He was eighth in 2020, before falling to RB16 in 2021.
The pattern with Jacobs seems to be that he has a really good year, followed by an inefficient year. Perhaps that can change now that he’s on the Packers. However, as the tenth running back off the board, I’m avoiding him.
4. Chuba Hubbard – Carolina Panthers
This running back isn’t even being drafted all that high. However, he still falls on my list of fantasy football running backs to avoid in your draft. That running back is the Carolina Panthers’ Chuba Hubbard.
He finished as the thirteenth fantasy football running back last year, and it felt like a way overperformance. It was too fluky to expect similar results. I also don’t think the Panthers are fully set on handing him the keys to the ignition.
If Bryce Young remains their starting quarterback, I think it hinders Hubbard’s success. Also, with such a loaded draft class, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Panthers take a running back to compete.
To top all that off, the Panthers drafted Jonathon Brooks last year and took a risk on him, even though he was injured. He reinjured his leg, retearing the ACL late last year, and may not be much of a factor again this year. Still, to me, that indicates the Panthers aren’t against finding a different featured back than Hubbard.
5. Bijan Robinson – Atlanta Falcons
This is also going to ruffle some feathers. I’m okay with that. Bijan Robinson is on my list of fantasy football running backs to avoid in the draft. He’s going as the second running back off the board so far, and I don’t think he can achieve that level of production.
There’s no doubt about it, Bijan Robinson is incredibly talented. However, he is going to underproduce his ADP. Tyler Allgeier is still going to get carries, Michael Penix is going to take some carries, and this offense is going to be completely different.
While some of you may not have PTSD from drafting him in 2023, some of us still do. Now, a change to offensive coordinator Zac Robinson makes me nervous. Robinson will likely focus on more of a pass-happy offense. While this could benefit Robinson, there are just too many variables for me to want to draft him at RB2. He’ll underperform his ADP by at least four spots.
