“Five Quarterbacks You Must Avoid Drafting According To Sr. NFL Analyst Justin Mark”
I’ve already had a couple of people reach out about doing a start-up draft. Is it too early? Absolutely not! Regardless of whether you have a draft this month or in three months, you have to start prepping now. This is my list of five fantasy football quarterbacks you must avoid in your draft! They will underperform their ADP!
Let’s not be silly. I’m not throwing guys like Bryce Young on here. That’s too obvious! We’re going with some guys you might be on the fence about whether to draft or not. These are the guys that fall on my do-not-draft list.
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1. Tua Tagovailoa – Miami Dolphins
The first fantasy football quarterback on my list of quarterbacks to avoid in your draft is Tua Tagovailoa. He’s currently being drafted as the 11th quarterback off the board. However, I don’t feel he’s going to crack the top 12.
Tua’s talent isn’t exactly the problem. He’s had trouble staying healthy the past several years, and with his concussion concerns, I don’t think that’s going to get better this year. The line still has questions, and his top playmaker, Tyreek Hill, isn’t getting any younger.
In 2024, Tua was drafted as the 14th quarterback off the board. He finished as the 22nd quarterback. Now, he’s being drafted three spots higher, and it doesn’t make any sense to me. I’ll gladly let everybody else draft him as the 11th quarterback off the board while I avoid him.
2. Sam Darnold – Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold had a great season last year with the Vikings. He had an even better season for anybody who invested in him in fantasy football. However, this year, he’s on my list of fantasy football quarterbacks to avoid in the draft.
Darnold is currently going as the ninth quarterback off the board. This feels like more of a reflection of his incredible performance last year, where he finished as QB9. He was drafted as QB31 last year, so finishing at QB9 was an incredible feat.
Let’s break down why he’s on my list of players to avoid. Last year, Darnold was on the Vikings and throwing to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. He was also coached by one of the brightest offensive minds and quarterback guru, Kevin O’Connell.
Now, he finds himself as the starter for the Seahawks. The Seahawks traded away D.K. Metcalf this offseason. While they still have Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Darnold is now behind a much worse offensive line. Not being a scrambler, this is going to hurt his fantasy football value.
3. Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys
Every year I watch people overdraft Dak Prescott, and every year it makes me happy to see. I’ll gladly let the competition draft him high. This year, Prescott is currently going as the eighth quarterback off the board. He’s on my list of fantasy football quarterbacks to avoid in the draft, and I think he finishes outside the top 15.
Last year, Prescott was drafted as the tenth quarterback. He missed half the season so it’s hard to gauge how close he would have been in a full season. If you look at his fantasy football points per game played, he sits as QB22.
The Cowboys haven’t made a lot of changes from last year. Despite having pick 12 in the NFL draft, it doesn’t seem like they’ve done enough to justify him suddenly averaging enough points to sit at QB8.
While he would only need a little over four points per game more on average, I just don’t see it happening. He’s not worth the price he’s fetching right now. In fact, I’m not even sure the Cowboys are sold on him. Rumors are swirling that they may have their eye on Shedeur Sanders.
4. C.J. Stroud
The next two are going to come off as offensive to some of you. I get it. I like both of these quarterbacks. However, I don’t think they’ll perform anywhere close to their average draft position. The fourth quarterback on my fantasy football quarterbacks to avoid in your draft is CJ Stroud.
Stroud is currently being drafted as the fifth quarterback off the board. Last year, we saw him hit the sophomore slump and finish as QB18. For the record, he was drafted as the QB5 last year, too. Have the Texans made enough changes so we don’t get the same result as last year?
I don’t think so. They lost Stefon Diggs. Tank Dell is likely going to miss 2025. They did trade for wide receiver Christian Kirk, which helps. However, they traded away offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil. This feels like it’s going to be a worse offensive line than Stroud had last year.
With the offense feeling like it could take another step back, I’m not confident Stroud can finish in the top 12, let alone the top five.
5. Patrick Mahomes
This is also going to ruffle some feathers. I’m okay with that. Patrick Mahomes is on my list of fantasy football quarterbacks to avoid in the draft. He was taken as the second quarterback off the board last year and finished 11th.
He is being drafted as the second quarterback off the board again. I 100% agree that Patrick Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks in the league. That’s obvious to anybody who watches. However, I don’t think he’s one of the best fantasy football quarterbacks.
He can certainly take over games. Though with how good this team is coached, he rarely has to. The defense has been strong and likely will be strong again. The offense doesn’t have to do too much. Not to mention, the offense took a little step back last year.
With more injuries, potential suspensions, and Travis Kelce being another year older, I’m just not sure they are going to have any different result than last year. I drank the juice last year and listed Mahomes as my top fantasy football quarterback. No more.
