“Discover which fantasy football quarterbacks are rising, falling, and repeating in 2025. Get expert rankings, insights, and draft strategy for this year’s top QB targets.”
Each season, identifying which quarterbacks will rise or fall in fantasy football is crucial to building a competitive roster. After diving deep into a 10-year repeat rate study and evaluating offseason changes, we’ve built a clear picture of how the quarterback landscape is shifting. This article breaks down the historical trends at the position, highlights which fantasy football quarterbacks are most likely to drop out of the top 24, and pinpoints the players poised to rise into top-tier value. I’ve also included my personal top 12 quarterback rankings for the 2025 season.
(This is an AI-generated article from a recently published IDP+ Betting Podcast transcript.)
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Historical Repeat Trends: Quarterbacks Are the Most Stable Fantasy Position
Over the past decade, no offensive position has shown more consistency at the top than quarterback. On average, 7 of the top 12 quarterbacks from the previous year repeat that top-12 finish in the following season. When zooming out to the top 24, the repeat rate climbs even higher—an average of 18 quarterbacks return from one year to the next.
In recent seasons, this trend has largely held true. In 2023, 15 of the top 24 fantasy quarterbacks repeated their finish, while 7 remained in the top 12. The 2022 season saw slightly more turnover, with 13 quarterbacks repeating in the top 24 and only 5 remaining in the top 12. While the quarterback position is far more stable than running back or wide receiver, change still happens—especially in the lower half of the QB2 tier.
These patterns reinforce the idea that while elite quarterbacks tend to stay elite, there is still plenty of opportunity for value to emerge—and for name-brand players to fall.
Fantasy Quarterbacks Set to Fall Out of the Top 24
Every year, at least six quarterbacks fall out of the top 24 from the previous season. After reviewing performance trends, injury history, and depth chart volatility, I’ve identified the most likely candidates to drop in 2025.
Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold’s QB8 finish last season was a statistical outlier. He was never expected to start a full season, but injuries forced him into action. He succeeded in spots, but there’s no evidence he’ll hold onto a starting job long-term. With a new offensive system and a likely rookie waiting in the wings, Darnold’s fantasy value could evaporate quickly. He’s a prime regression candidate.
Tua Tagovailoa
Despite finishing as a top-24 quarterback last season, Tua Tagovailoa has played all 17 games just once in five NFL seasons. His injury history includes multiple concussions and lower-body issues, which create serious durability concerns. The offensive line remains a question mark, especially with a raw rookie like Patrick Paul possibly protecting the blindside. Even if he plays, he lacks the rushing floor that boosts fantasy scoring, and his aging weapons only add to the risk. I don’t expect him to repeat as a fantasy starter.
Aaron Rodgers
At 41 years old and coming off a major injury, Aaron Rodgers faces long odds to return to top-24 relevance. The system he enters is built around under-center, run-heavy football. Arthur Smith’s scheme does not cater to Rodgers’ strengths. His mobility is gone, his deep-ball accuracy is fading, and there’s no rushing upside to bail out a bad passing day. I see more risk than reward in drafting Rodgers, even in superflex leagues.
Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson has all the physical tools, but limited opportunity could keep him out of the top 24. He’s projected to play about 12 games, potentially in a platoon or rotation with Daniel Jones. While Richardson’s rushing ability gives him top-12 per-game upside, missing five or more games would tank his total season output. He remains a high-upside gamble, but one that comes with volume-related risk.
Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford showed his age down the stretch in 2024, finishing the season with four straight games under 200 passing yards. He also lacks a rushing floor, which limits his weekly ceiling. More importantly, his offensive line is a concern, especially with left tackle Alaric Jackson dealing with blood clot issues. Stafford’s injury history, lack of mobility, and declining efficiency make him a long shot to stay in the top 24.
Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson might open the season as the starter for the New York Giants, but I don’t expect him to hold the job. Between Jameis Winston and rookie Jackson Dart, Wilson could be benched by midseason. The Giants also face the second-hardest projected schedule for quarterbacks, which only adds to his challenges. Without guaranteed playing time, Wilson is a high-risk option who should fall off the fantasy radar.
Quarterbacks Poised to Rise into the Top 24
As some quarterbacks fall, new names are ready to take their place. These six players are set up to enter the top 24 by the end of the 2025 fantasy season, thanks to increased volume, improved supporting casts, or expected starting roles.
Bryce Young
Bryce Young quietly turned a corner late in the 2024 season. Over his final six games, he totaled 10 touchdowns, including five rushing scores. His overall passing yardage still needs to improve, but the Panthers added talent at wide receiver and should offer a more stable offensive system this year. If the trend continues, Young could surprise fantasy managers and finish inside the top 20.
Justin Fields
Justin Fields was a top-six quarterback in points per game before being benched last season. Now expected to start all 17 games for the Jets, Fields offers a rare combination of guaranteed opportunity and elite rushing upside. He could easily finish in the top 12, especially with Garrett Wilson as his primary weapon. Fields remains one of the best cheat codes in fantasy when he’s on the field.
Cam Ward
Rookie Cam Ward lands in a rebuilding Titans offense that’s expected to give him the keys from Week 1. While Ward doesn’t offer a ton of rushing upside, he should see high volume, especially in garbage time. In fantasy, volume plus mobility equals upside, and Ward checks enough boxes to be a back-end QB2 option in superflex and deeper leagues.
Michael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr. posted a strong 7.4 yards per attempt in limited action last year. With deep-ball tendencies and a growing rapport with Drake London and Darnell Mooney, Penix should be able to produce big plays. He’s unlikely to offer much as a runner, but his efficiency and arm talent give him top-24 potential if he sees 12+ starts.
J.J. McCarthy
McCarthy may not be a week-one starter in every league, but he has a strong chance to earn the job early and hold it. His rushing ability, accuracy, and leadership qualities make him a potential breakout if he starts most of the season. While less discussed, McCarthy’s upside belongs in the same conversation as other second-tier fantasy football quarterbacks.
Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott is finally healthy and enters 2025 with a revamped receiving corps, including George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. While his rushing days may be behind him, high passing volume and a questionable defense should keep Prescott in shootouts. I’m confident he bounces back into the top 12.
Top 12 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks for 2025
Without further ado, here are the top 12 quarterbacks for the upcoming season, based on projected opportunity, surrounding talent, and per-game upside:
- Joe Burrow – I expect a massive season with over 5,000 passing yards and 40 touchdowns. The Bengals’ defense will force shootouts.
- Josh Allen – Still an elite dual-threat QB with red zone dominance.
- Patrick Mahomes – With better weapons and health, Mahomes should return to over 8.0 yards per attempt.
- Lamar Jackson – The rushing upside remains elite, and the offense is still built around him.
- Justin Fields – If he plays 17 games, Fields is a top-five finisher.
- Bo Nix – A projected 567 pass attempts and a solid rushing floor under Sean Payton make Nix a breakout.
- Trevor Lawrence – Strong offseason improvements and a more aggressive play style should lift his ceiling.
- Dak Prescott – High passing volume will keep him fantasy-relevant, even without rushing.
- Bryce Young – Trending in the right direction with better weapons and red zone usage.
- Brock Purdy – When healthy and surrounded by playmakers, Purdy is efficient and reliable.
- Michael Penix Jr. – I’m betting on his arm talent and opportunity to shine in Year 1.
- Justin Herbert – Barely makes the cut. Efficiency remains high, but rushing volume and conservative play-calling limit his upside.
Final Thoughts: How to Win with Fantasy Football Quarterbacks in 2025
This season, the key to success with fantasy football quarterbacks is understanding where stability ends and upside begins. While players like Allen, Mahomes, and Jackson offer consistent scoring, several mobile or volume-driven quarterbacks can be had later at a discount.
Targeting young, mobile quarterbacks on teams likely to trail often—like Fields, Ward, or Young—can provide league-winning upside. Just as important is fading aging or injury-prone players who no longer offer ceiling outcomes.
Always monitor depth charts, coaching schemes, and health updates, but draft with confidence when the data backs the decision. Quarterback remains the most stable position in fantasy, but knowing where turnover is likely gives you a clear advantage on draft day.
Thank you for reading this article by @IDP_Plus. This article was created using IDP+ AI and edited by an IDP+ Staff Member. Be sure to check out the video above, which this article is based on. Follow the hosts @RickyRod66 & @shawn8386 on the X!!
