IDP Players to Target or Fade Following Week 1 of the Regular Season – Stock Up or Stock Down

Following Week 1, who is looking up and who is looking down for IDP FFL?

Stock Up

Ricardo Allen

Week 1: 5 tackles (4 solo), 1 PD

72/72 snaps, 100% snap share

Ricardo Allen didn’t necessarily have a big week but the injury to Keanu Neal might put him in position for very good IDP production. When Neal was injured Allen moved down to the strong safety role while Damontae Kazee came in to fill the free safety role. This projects to be the plan going forward. The strong safety spot in the Dan Quinn defense has propelled Kam Chancellor and Keanu Neal to elite IDP production. Allen certainly does not bring the imposing, physical nature of Chancellor or Neal, but barring a huge scheme change Allen should be put in a position to produce.

I recommend adding Allen on waivers in leagues with decent sized benches. I would monitor his role and production at least one week before inserting him into lineups, but there’s big potential here for the rest of the season.

For further detail on the Falcons plan(s) to replace Neal check the full article:

Fred Warner

Week 1: 12 tackles (11 solo), 1 FF, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit, 1 PD

71/71 snaps, 100%

With Reuben Foster and Malcolm Smith out due to suspension and injury, Fred Warner got his chance to shine. Not only did Warner come up with a big performance but he likely secured a full time role going forward. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said no decision has been made on the starters once Reuben Foster gets back, but acknowledged it will be difficult to take Warner off the field if he continues to play at this level. Fire up Warner with confidence again next week against the Lions and proceed with cautious optimism when Foster returns in Week 3.

Harrison Smith

Week 1: 8 tackles (7 solo), 1 sack, 2 TFL, 1PD, 1 QB hit, 1 INT, 1 FR

66/66 snaps, 100%

Harrison Smith is already considered an elite safety so I’m not sure how much his stock can actually go up. He looked like the best safety in football and maybe even the best defender in football in this big games against the 49ers. Looking at the massive stat line here is extremely impressive, but it does not even tell the full story of his impact on this game.  Smith had a big goal line stop, his fumble recovery occurred near the goal line, and his interception sealed the game for the Vikings.

Nick Vigil

Week 1: 11 tackles (11 solo), 2 TFL

82/82 snaps, 100%

The Bengals linebackers struggled in this one, especially after Preston Brown left the game with an ankle injury.  Nick Vigil was the lone bright spot for this group.  The red flag here was the 82 snaps for the Bengals defense, this is an abnormally high amount of opportunities but does fit the data from last season for the Bengals.  If Preston Brown misses next week Vigil could see a boost in production and should remain a solid option until Vontaze Burfict returns from his four game suspension.

Also, shout out to Clayton Fejedelem who had a massive game including a forced fumble and fumble recovery for a touchdown to seal the game.  He filled in admirably for Shawn Williams but does not get his own blurb because he does not seem likely to produce going forward.

Darius Leonard

Week 1: 9 tackles (6 solo), 1 FR

55/55 snaps, 100%

Leonard flies all over the field and is seemingly in on every play. Leonard should be the Colts top linebacker for years to come and should be a mainstay in IDP lineups. The other positive note here is the Colts defense only saw 55 snaps in this one. This is an extremely low number, so as this regresses to the mean the defense will see more opportunities. This will lead to more tackles for Leonard, Clayton Geathers, and others.

Tremaine Edmunds

Week 1: 7 tackles (3 solo), 1 sack, 1 TFL, 2 PD, 1 QB hit, 1 FF

80/80 snaps, 100%

Edmunds may have been the lone bright spot in Buffalo’s blowout loss to the Ravens. As bad as the offense looked, this defense is going to be on the field a lot as evidenced by the 80 snaps in Week1. Edmunds is one of the lone playmakers on this defense and should put up tackles and sprinkle in splash plays all season long.

Myles Jack

Week 1: 10 tackles (7 solo), 1 PD, 1 INT, 1 TD

71/71 snaps, 100%

Myles Jack had a solid debut as the middle linebacker for the Jaguars. He put up solid tackle production and had a tipped pass fall right into his bread basket. The interceptions are not likely to continue but Jack has a chance to step up into the elite tier of IDP players this season.

Myles Garrett

Week 4: 6 tackles (5 solo), 3 TFL, 2 sacks, 1 PD, 2 QB hits, 2 FFs

84/84 snaps, 100%

Myles Garrett is a freakish athlete that is blossoming into one the leagues elite pass rushers. Garrett almost singlehandedly willed the Browns to victory in this game. This was absolutely ridiculous production but do not be surprised if Garrett is among the NFL sack leaders at the end of this season. Another incredible piece of data here is his snap share as he willed the team back into the game despite playing on every single defensive snap. This is pretty rare for defensive linemen, but Garret proved stamina will not really be an issue. It is probably too late to recommend buying this guy as the buy low window is slamming shut.

Reshad Jones

Week 1: 7 tackles (4 solo), 1.5 TFL, 2 PD, 2 INT

63/69 snaps, 94%

Reshad Jones is another player that is already among the best and showed why with another great performance. Jones and fellow safety T.J. McDonald both played almost the full game and put up great tackle production for Miami. Jones happened to get the glory with the two interceptions in this one, but both Jones and McDonald look like solid options going forward.

Anthony Hitchens

Week 1: 15 tackles (7 solo), 2 TFL

78/78 snaps, 100%

Hitchens was the every down off-ball linebacker for Chiefs and put up huge tackle numbers. Hitchens could be a one of those sneaky players that ends up among the league leaders in tackles like Blake Martinez and Joe Schobert last year. I would recommend looking into what it takes to acquire him before he really blows up and everyone catches on. The Chiefs defense also looks like it may potentially struggle this year and combined with a high powered, quick hitting offense that could lead to a lot of opportunities for IDP production.

Kyzir White

Week 1: 6 tackles (3 solo)

44/56 snaps, 80%

A lot of people are probably looking at White’s stat line and moving right past it, but you should pause and look closer. White lead the Chargers linebackers in snaps and the defense was only on the field for 56 snaps. The whole defense is going to see more opportunities as that snap number regresses closer to the mean. The other thing that should have us salivating is the past production of weakside linebackers in Gus Bradley’s defense – think Telvin Smith and Jatavis Brown‘s rookie season. Additionally, if you are in a league that allows you to play White as a safety, that is going to become a huge advantage and borderline cheat code. Add White off the waiver wire wherever you can or at least check the price in a trade if he is already owned.

Josh Bynes

Week 1: 11 tackles (8 solo)

71/79 snaps, 95%

Josh Bynes was surprisingly an every down linebacker for the Cardinals and came up with big tackle production. The Cardinals’ offense may struggle this year and leave the defense on the field a lot. Bynes is not really a special talent but he has an excellent opportunity here and should be added off waiver wires wherever he is available.

Bradley McDougald

Week 1: 5 tackles (5 solo), 2 PD, 2 INT

61/72 snaps 85%

With Earl Thomas back McDougald gets to fill the Kam Chancellor role at strong safety. This is one of the more productive safety roles for IDP production.  McDougald should clean up on tackles this year and the two week one interceptions were a nice surprise. Start McDougald with confidence going forward.

Von Miller

Week 1: 7 tackles (6 solo), 3 sacks, 2 TFL, 4 QB hits, 2 FF, 1 FR

50/57 snaps, 91%

This was an example of a stud player taking advantage of the weakness of another team. This shows why matchups are important, fire up pass rushers against Seattle’s porous offensive line all season long. Also, just a reminder that Von Miller is still a really good football player.

Kentrell Brice

Week 1: 9 tackles (8 solo), 1 sack, 1 QB hit

70/70 snaps, 100%

Kentrell Brice appears to have the strong safety position in Green Bay locked down and has been putting up productive IDP stat lines in the preseason.  Head coach Mike McCarthy talked him up and shared that he was the highest graded player on the defense. He’s definitely someone that should be added from waivers following his Week 1 performance.

Darron Lee

Week 1: 7 tackles (6 solo), 3 PD, 2 INT, 1 TD

I am still not sure if I am ready to buy in on Lee, but the talent and speed are tantalizing. This may have been an indication that he is starting to understand the game and process what is going on in front of him. He also revealed after the game that the defense knew Stafford’s hand signals and knew what the Lions were doing all game long. If the coaching staff can continue to put him in position to make plays he definitely has the speed to do so.

Stock Down

Derek Barnett

Week 1: 2 tackles (1 solo), 1 QB hit

40/70 snaps, 62%

Derek Barnett has been hyped up by many as a breakout candidate coming into this year. His season did not get off to a great start statistically. In addition to the poor statistical performance Barnett had two huge offsides penalties that negated sacks for the Eagles. The Eagles use a heavy rotation on the defensive line but its not necessarily encouraging to see him get out snapped by Michael Bennett (45 snaps). Chris Long also came in just one snap behind Barnett at 39 snaps. This is something to keep an eye on going forward, if Barnett continues to make dumb mental mistakes that hurt the team he may lose the faith of the coaching staff.

B.J. Goodson

Week 1: 2 tackles (1 solo)

33/63 snaps, 53%

The snap share tells most of the story here. Goodson is the nominal starter at the second inside linebacker position for the Giants but Ray-Ray Armstrong rotates in a lot as well. Goodson is just not good enough in coverage to stay on the field in passing situations and unfortunately it is going to be difficult to produce IDP points in this limited role.

Morgan Burnett

Week 1: 2 tackles (1 solo), 0.5 TFL

40/88 snaps, 47%

Another snap share telling us all we need to know here. Burnett did have a minor injury leading up to this game which may have contributed to the move to start rookie Terrell Edmunds at strong safety. If Burnett’s role continues to be the third safety in this defense with less than a 50 percent snap share he will not have value and can be dropped for a higher upside play.

Haason Reddick

Week 1: 4 tackles (3 solo), 1 TFL

14/78 snaps, 19%

Reddick clearly lost out the linebacker battle to Josh Bynes. Reddick is a versatile player that just has not been able to find a stable role at the NFL level.  The good news here is that he was productive with this limited snaps. However, he absolutely cannot be counted on in IDP rosters in the limited role he played in Week 1.

Be sure to check out this article series each week, as Tyler Joseph will be reviewing the players who you should be buying and fading based on players performance.

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