“It’s the Hottest NFL Thanksgiving Day Player Prop Bets And Parlay Pick With NFL Player Expert Justin Mark!”
Thanksgiving is tomorrow! That means if the political conversations start flying at your family get together you can turn your attention to the three NFL games that will be airing. We went 3-1 in Week 12 picks and we’re looking for a 4-0 to make some extra cash for Black Friday shopping! Let’s break down the top NFL Week Thanksgiving Day player prop bets for this weekend.
So let’s get to the point and see what Draftkings And Fanduel have for us this weekend…
Odds Recorded On 11/27/2024 Via DraftKings
Tyrone Tracy Jr. Over 65.5 Rushing Yards @ -110 (Giants)
The first player in the NFL Thanksgiving Day player prop bets to target is Tyrone Tracy Jr. He’s been in this article once before and cashed the over for us and we’re looking to target his over again. The Giants haven’t been doing much right lately. It’s hard to trust their pass-catchers, especially without knowing if Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock are starting. However, this classic Giants vs. Cowboys Thanksgiving Day matchup still provides us with some value.
Tyrone Tracy has been a quiet surprise for the Giants. Perhaps he’s being overshadowed by the fact that their former running back, Saquon Barkley, is running all over people like a maniac. However, Tracy has been quietly solid for them ever since taking the starting position over from their free agent acquisition, Devin Singletary.
More Week 13 NFL Prop Bets And NFL Advice
- Week 13 NFL Fantasy Football, IDP, and NFL Betting Prep Index
- Easy Week 13 NFL Fantasy Football ILB Matchup IDP Rankings
- Week 13 Fantasy Football Advice: TOP NFL Picks And Start/Sit Q&A
- BEST NFL DFS DraftKings, FanDuel, & Week 13 Underdog Picks!
Tracy didn’t get over this mark last week against a tougher Tampa Bay rush defense. However, he did hit it in the previous three games. In two of those games, he exceeded 100 yards. This is the recipe for success and winning games when it comes to the New York Giants. They must run the ball.
They should have an easy time doing that against the Cowboys, who are allowing the 21st most rushing yards to running backs. I like Tracy to get well over the 65.5 that the books have set. In fact, I am even sprinkling a little on 100+ yards at +330 on DraftKings.
Jonnu Smith Over 44.5 Receiving Yards @ -115 (Dolphins)
Our next player on the top NFL Thanksgiving Day player prop bets list is Jonnu Smith. Among Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle, Jonnu Smith’s success has been a pleasant surprise for Dolphins’ fans and fantasy managers. He’s really stepped up and is playing some of the best football in his career. Thankfully, that means we can capitalize on the betting market for him too.
Smith’s current receiving number is set at 44.5 receiving yards. This is bet up from 40.5 from just yesterday, showing you how confident bettors are that he can hit this. In other words, bet it quickly before it keeps climbing up! This number could settle closer to 47.5 to 49.5 come game time.
The Dolphins face a tougher Packers defense. However, even though the Packers are 11th in total receiving yards allowed, they’re 21st in receiving yards allowed to tight ends. While they focus on slowing the run, as well as stopping Hill, Waddle, and Achane in the receiving game, this should leave plenty of opportunities for Smith.
Smith has gone over this number in the last four straight games. He’s also hit it in six of the last seven games. Hence why I feel the number is bound to creep up a little higher. With a 64% success rate on the season, but 100% in the last three, this number feels solid. Smith has finished with 101 and 87 receiving yards in the last two weeks.
Caleb Williams Over 5.5 Rush Attempts @ -120 (Bears)
Our last two picks for the top NFL Thanksgiving Day player prop bets are both from the first game of the day. At 12:30 PM Eastern, 9:30 AM Pacific, the Chicago Bears take on the Detroit Lions. Those familiar with me know I’m a big Chicago Bears fan. While I don’t have high hopes for us for this game, I do think there are some good betting values out there.
We’ll start with none other than Chicago’s rookie quarterback, Caleb Williams. Targeting his passing yards against this tough defense feels risky. Even targeting his rushing yards felt a little risky. However, targeting his carries felt like a no-brainer. Caleb Williams’s over 5.5 rush attempts feels like an easy hit.
The Lions are really good at getting pressure on the quarterback. That’s backed off a little bit since Aidan Hutchinson went down with an injury. However, they’re still really good. That has forced quarterbacks to move around and scramble and led to the Lions allowing the 20th most rushing yards to quarterbacks.
Not to mention, since the Bears fired Shane Waldron and handed play-calling duties over to Thomas Brown, this offense has looked different. There have been more designed quarterback runs and more movement in the pocket. In the last two games with Brown calling offensive players, Caleb has been averaging 7.5 carries per game. He had nine against Green Bay two weeks ago and 6 against the Vikings.
Jahmyr Gibbs over 20.5 receiving yards @ -115 (Lions)
As I said when talking about Caleb Williams, I have two picks for our top NFL Thanksgiving Day player prop bets from the same game. I have talked about Williams already, so let’s jump to the other side of the field and talk about Lions’ player props. If David Montgomery suits up, I really like the over on his rushing yards. He likes to show up against this Chicago team that didn’t retain him and Chicago has been bad against the run in general.
However, Monty is currently limited in practice due to a shoulder injury. Therefore, I’ll go over to the lightning to his thunder, Jahmyr Gibbs. Instead of targeting his rushing yards though, I like his receiving yards. Gibbs’s over 20.5 receiving yards is at -115 and feels like a perfect game-script play. I also feel like this is a solid bet whether Monty plays or not given Gibbs’ usage.
The Bears’ defense is pretty good against the pass. However, in the last two divisional matchups against the Packers and Vikings these past two weeks, they have shown some poor tackling. While I expect them to pick that up a little bit, Gibbs is hard to tackle and could break a 20+ yard catch and run in one play. Gibbs has over 20.5 receiving yards in two of the last three games.
Big Parlay By The Numbers: +1139
Tyrone Tracy Over 65.5 Rushing Yards -110
Jonnu Smith Over 45.5 Receiving Yards -110
Caleb Williams Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts -120
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 20.5 Receiving Yards -115
It’s as great as an All-Combination or 2-pick Round-Robin as it gets!
Don’t forget to check out our other great Fantasy Football and NFL Betting content before you go!
